Place du Capitole, a night of curfew (Illustration).
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F. Scheiber / SIPA
So far, health measures taken locally, such as wearing a mask, had had an impact on the circulation of the virus.
The curfew advanced to 18 ha, according to statistical studies from the Toulouse Virology Laboratory, had the opposite effect to that expected, perhaps due to the concentration of activities on certain time slots.
The number of hospitalizations has climbed within the services of the CHU, from 119 patients a fortnight ago to 159 today.
On January 2, the curfew was brought forward to 6 p.m. in fifteen French departments to limit the circulation of the coronavirus.
Before being extended to other parts of the territory, in particular in Toulouse from January 16.
Yesterday, Olivier Véran explained that this measure had been effective, but that it was now fading.
If the incidence rate was indeed down during the first ten days, this trend was reversed the following week according to a report from Public Health France.
A phenomenon also observed in the Toulouse metropolitan area by the team of the Toulouse University Hospital virology laboratory.
“Under the epidemiological conditions of the city of Toulouse, the curfew at 18 ha has the opposite effect to that expected on the population of the agglomeration.
There is a local interest in taking this measure, not a national interest when epidemiological situations are very heterogeneous, ”says Chloé Diméglio, biostatistician at the CHU.
No strong rebound after Christmas
To confirm this, the researcher ran her statistical models.
The same ones that have already been used to measure the positive effects of wearing a mask in the Pink City this summer, the curfew at 8 p.m. or the closing of bars on the circulation of the virus.
Beyond confinement, all these measures were taken locally by the prefect in coordination with the mayors.
Before assessing the impact of the advanced curfew, she wanted to know if the holiday season had gone well.
And that's pretty positive.
“If we had stuck to strict adherence to the curfew measures in place at Christmas time, we should have had a 7-8% positive test rate between January 10 and 15.
We were actually between 8.5 and 9% positive tests.
Which means that the initial curfew was not strictly observed during the Christmas holidays, but we expected it.
We knew that people were going to regroup and that it would circulate a little more.
But we did not have a monstrous rebound, ”notes Chloé Diméglio.
Increase in hospitalizations
The curfew put in place at the end of the year corresponded to a 38% constraint on the circulation of the virus, with this relaxation it was actually 37%.
The laboratory then focused on the period from January 15 to 24, that of the advance to 6 p.m. of the curfew in the city.
As when the first health measures were put in place, everyone expected to see the rate of positive tests decrease.
“Taking into account the previous dynamic, the small relaxation of the Christmas holidays and the previous curfew, we should have reached 10% positive tests in the first half of February.
But between January 20 and 24, we were already at 10% positive tests.
Instead of delaying the achievement of this 10% threshold, the curfew has in fact advanced it, ”continues the biostatistician.
And this was also felt on the number of hospitalizations.
Two weeks ago, Covid-19 patients occupied 119 beds at the CHU.
They are now 159, including 22 in intensive care and 28 in intensive care.
Some might see the “variant” effect there.
But according to studies, it was present at too low a rate to still have an impact.
The most plausible explanation for this negative effect is the concentration of activities on certain time slots.
Like the shopping done in the evening after leaving work, which is now done on weekends.
And everyone ends up in the same place.
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