Two weeks have passed since the emergency declaration was issued in the three prefectures of Osaka, Kyoto, and Hyogo in the Kansai region, and in the four prefectures of Tochigi, Aichi, Gifu, and Fukuoka.
What has changed in the spread of outbreaks and infections?
At NHK, we analyzed the data with the help of IT companies and epidemiological experts.
What is the change in the number of people in each area?
NHK is one of the metropolitan areas where an emergency declaration has been issued, using the location information data of mobile phones collected by the IT-related company "Agoop" with the permission of the user in a form that does not identify individuals. We analyzed the number of people at major points in the prefecture.
The time analyzed is from 6 am to 6 pm during the day and from 6 pm to midnight the next day at night.
The number of people at major points on the 28th has increased from two weeks ago.
First is the number of people during the day.
▼ It increased by 69% compared to 14th of this month, two weeks before the measures for the declaration of emergency started near Utsunomiya Station, and
▼ It increased by 18% near Sannomiya Station in Kobe City.
▼ The area around Osaka Umeda Station was almost the same as the increase of 1%.
On the other hand,
▼ Kyoto station area decreased by 16%,
▼ Hakata station area
decreased by
11%,
▼ Gifu station area
decreased by
5%, and
▼ Nagoya station area decreased by 2%.
In addition, compared to the time of the first declaration of emergency,
▼ the area around Hakata station increased by 151% compared to the average on weekdays when the first declaration was issued, and
▼ near Sannomiya station in Kobe city. 150%,
▼ 143% near Gifu station,
▼ 138% near Kyoto station,
▼ 137% near Osaka Umeda station,
▼ 108% near Utsunomiya station,
▼ 96% near Nagoya station, all about It is 2 to 2.5 times.
And there are people at night.
▼ Kobe city's Sannomiya station area increased by 13%
▼ Osaka Umeda station area and Nagoya station area increased by 3% respectively.
On the other hand,
▼ near Gifu station decreased by 21%
,
▼
near Hakata station
decreased by
20%,
▼ near Kyoto station
decreased by
19%, and
▼ near Utsunomiya station decreased by 17%.
Also, compared to the time of the first emergency declaration,
▼ Osaka Umeda station area increased by 166%,
▼ Hakata station area 164%,
▼ Kobe city Sannomiya station area 150%,
▼ Nagoya station area ,
▼ Kyoto station area 122%,
▼ Gifu station area 121%,
▼ Utsunomiya station area 12% increase, all more than double except Utsunomiya.
[Details of each prefecture] How many people are infected from one infected person
When NHK calculated the "effective reproduction number", which indicates how many people the infection spreads from one infected person, using a simple method, it was lower than the previous week in all 11 prefectures where the state of emergency was declared. I found out that there is.
Experts pointed out that "although there is a tendency to decrease, there are still many infected people, and if you relax here, the infection will spread again in a few weeks, so it is necessary to continue thorough measures." I have.
NHK is an epidemiology expert and supervised by Motoi Suzuki, director of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases Epidemiology Center, for 11 prefectures that have declared a state of emergency, based on data up to the 28th, using a simple method. Calculated the number of effective reproductions.
It is said that if the number of effective reproductions exceeds "1", the infection will spread, while if it falls below "1", it will converge. To get more accurate, the date of onset is estimated and calculated. It is necessary to consider the conditions of, but since it takes time, it is calculated by a simple method based on the number of infected people per day confirmed as a guideline value.
* In the future, the data on the number of effective reproductions released by public institutions may differ as a result.
Tochigi Prefecture
In Tochigi prefecture,
▼ 1.52 as of 7th of
this month
,
▼ 1.20 as of 14th of
this month,
▼
0.72 as of 21st of
this month
,
▼ 0.60 as of 28th of this month, which is below "1".
Aichi / Gifu
Aichi prefecture is
▼ 1.05 as of 7th of
this month
,
▼ 1.13 as of 14th of
this month,
▼
0.91 as of 21st of
this month
,
▼ 0.85 as of 28th of this month, which is below "1".
Gifu prefecture is
▼ 1.17 as of 7th of
this month
,
▼ 1.01 as of 14th of
this month,
▼
0.91 as of 21st of
this month
,
▼ 0.79 as of 28th of this month, which is below "1".
Osaka prefecture, Kyoto prefecture, Hyogo prefecture
Osaka prefecture was
▼ 1.26 as of 7th of
this month
,
▼ 1.31 as of 14th of
this month,
▼
0.96 as of 21st of
this month
,
▼ 0.82 as of 28th of this month, which is lower than "1".
Kyoto Prefecture is
▼ 1.02 as of the 7th of
this month
,
▼ 1.22 as of the 14th of
this month,
▼
0.99 as of the 21st of
this month
, and
▼ 0.90 as of the 28th of this month, which is below "1".
Hyogo prefecture is
▼ 0.97 as of 7th of
this month
,
▼ 1.33 as of 14th of
this month,
▼
0.98 as of 21st of
this month
,
▼ 0.84 as of 28th of this month, which is below "1".
In 2 prefectures and 1 prefecture in Kansai, there was a
tendency to increase
to 1.12 as of 7th of
this month and 1.30 as of 14th of this month, but
▼ 0.97 as of 21st of this month, which is below "1", and
▼ 28th of this month. At that point, it is 0.84.
Fukuoka Prefecture
Fukuoka Prefecture was
▼ 1.18 as of the 7th of
this month
,
▼ 1.28 as of the 14th of
this month
,
▼ 1.02 as of the 21st of this month, but
▼ 0.75 as of the 28th of this month, which was below "1".
Nationwide
In addition,
▼ 1.17 as of 7th of
this month
,
▼ 1.27 as of 14th of this month, which was higher than "1"
,
▼
0.96 as of 21st of
this month
,
▼ 0.77 and "1" as of 28th of this month. It is below.
Expert "I can see a downward trend, but I can't be optimistic."
Professor Kazuhiro Tateda of Toho University, the chairman of the Japan Society for Infectious Diseases, said, "Although it is gradual, the number of infected people is declining. In addition to the effect of the state of emergency, there is a growing sense of caution about the rapid increase in infected people. However, the number of infected people is still high, and if you feel at ease here, it will expand again in a few weeks, and it will take some time before the tight situation in the medical field improves. Therefore, I can never be optimistic. It is important that the downward trend continues, and each person needs to continue thorough measures such as preventing infection through eating and drinking as before. "