Chinanews.com client, Beijing, January 29 (Peng Jingru) Recently, due to the news of "mortgage suspension", some buyers were anxious like ants on the hot pot: "Every bank is tightening?" Can I still borrow money to buy a house normally?" "Will the mortgage slowdown count as my default?"

  Chinanews.com consulted the mortgage business departments of many banks in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and found that the tightening or suspension of mortgage loans is not very common, and there are differences between different cities.

The “insufficient quota” in the tightening reasons given by the bank is extremely frequent, but it does not mean that lending is completely stopped.

Shanghai, Shenzhen and other places tightened slightly, Beijing was calm

  Housing loans in Shanghai and Shenzhen have indeed been tightened recently, but it does not seem to be as serious as the rumors.

  "Recent loans will not be very fast. After all, the provident fund has to line up. But in fact, it is not particularly slow. It is normal." The mortgage business department of a branch of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China in Shanghai said that recently due to the new policy of the property market, and the addition of housing The transaction volume is large, and it needs to be queued after processing, but the mortgage business is still in the normal process.

Data map.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Yun

  A staff member of a branch of Bank of China in Shanghai said that the mortgage lending cycle is indeed a bit slower than before. The entire process was completed in one and a half months before, and it may now take two months.

  A staff member of a branch of China Merchants Bank in Shenzhen told reporters that the current quota is indeed tight and it is difficult to lend money.

However, you can find a real estate agent to consult a bank with faster lending, and you can do it directly. Not every bank faces this problem.

  In contrast, similar problems rarely occur in Beijing.

"My loan is said to be released at the end of January." A house buyer in Beijing said that banks generally do not lend at the end of the year. When the head office has issued a new lending policy, they will continue to lend.

  The staff of many banks in Beijing said that the current housing loan business is normal, the amount is sufficient as a whole, and the loan time has not been significantly extended.

  "Shenzhen and Shanghai are under great pressure for the real estate market to heat up. It is necessary to introduce policies to stabilize market expectations." Song Hongwei, research director of Tongce Research Institute, said that the tightening of housing loans may be affected in many ways, and the introduction of real estate loan concentration management policies Later, the mortgage limit was increased, and some banks will not be able to lend because the limit has hit the line.

  "In addition, the real estate market in some cities in the fourth quarter of 2020 is heating up significantly, and it is intended to cool down. 2021 is the first year of the '14th Five-Year Plan'. Stabilizing housing prices is very important, and this is also setting the tone for the real estate market this year." Song Hongwei said .

Can I still buy a house with a loan?

  Generally speaking, just find the right bank.

A real estate agent in Shenzhen told a reporter from Chinanews.com that among the many banks that cooperated, some of the banks had tightened funds at the end of the year, and there was indeed not much to be used for lending, but some banks were still abundant, and there was no need to worry too much about buying loans.

Data map.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Wei Liang

  In addition, even if the bank's quota is tight, it does not mean stopping lending.

"If there are a lot of people who have recently repaid the loan and the amount is sufficient, the loan will be faster, otherwise it will be slower. It depends on the actual situation." The staff of a Shanghai branch of Minsheng Bank explained that the loan mainly depends on the branch quota .

  Therefore, "no quota" and "stop lending" are not completely equal.

Judging from previous years, as the new year approaches, banks may also temporarily suspend or tighten loans, especially the mortgage business.

On the one hand, under the pressure of MPA (Macro Prudential Assessment System), liquidity coverage ratio and other indicators, banks need to increase the level of provision; on the other hand, there are factors such as fierce competition with banks for deposits and deposits during this period, and rising interbank lending rates. related.

  But home buyers will indeed be affected more or less.

Song Hongwei said that for home buyers, the difficulty of obtaining loans will increase and the loan cycle will also lengthen. The impact on the rigid needs population may still be more obvious, because rigid needs are more dependent on loans.

For sellers, it increases the difficulty of selling.

  A real estate agent in Guangzhou said that the current bank lending cycle uncertainty is increasing, and most second-hand homeowners are unwilling to wait.

"General sellers are only willing to wait 40 days to two months longer, but this will increase the risk of default for buyers."

Will

"slowing down mortgage loans

"

spread to more cities?

  "Whether there will be more cities with mortgage tightening in the future depends on the operation of the urban real estate market and the resulting changes in the proportion of bank mortgages." Xu Xiaole, chief analyst of the Shell Research Institute, said that if the urban real estate market demand rapidly rises, bank loan quotas Tightening and upward pressure on mortgage interest rates will increase.

  However, Xu Xiaole also said that the possibility of large-scale suspension of loans is unlikely.

  "From an overall point of view, only a small number of banks have mortgage loans exceeding the regulatory upper limit, and the extent of exceeding the limit is not large. In addition, the centralized mortgage management system also sets a transition period for banks to adjust the scale of mortgage loans. The higher the management requirements, the higher the transition period. The longer the time is, the banks and lenders have enough time to make steady adjustments and avoid excessive changes." Xu Xiaole said.

Data map.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Yang Bo

  Song Hongwei also agrees with this point. He believes that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the state will still support reasonable housing and healthy consumption, and policies will be more inclined to control risks and stabilize the market. Hot cities have the greatest probability of tightening, and they will be concentrated. Banks that have reached the threshold have the highest probability of introducing tightening measures.

  According to research conducted by the Shell Research Institute, in

addition to Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, cities such as Hefei, Hangzhou, Xi'an, and Dongguan are also experiencing prolonged mortgage lending cycles, rising mortgage interest rates, and partial bank suspensions

.

  "Commercial banks in hot cities will be more cautious in approving loans in the future, and the mortgage lending cycle will continue to stretch, and mortgage interest rates in cities with high housing market enthusiasm will rise." Xu Xiaole said.

The prediction of rising mortgage interest rates has come true?

  Recently, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Chengdu and other hot cities have stepped up regulation.

Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, believes that the "safe haven" attribute of the real estate market in such big cities under the epidemic has increased, resulting in various real estate speculation and house purchase phenomena. Policy tightening is a high probability event, especially in the Yangtze River Delta and Guangdong. Cities in Hong Kong and Macau regions.

Data map: real estate.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Bin

  On January 27, media reports said that the four major banks in Guangzhou had increased their mortgage prices across the board.

It is reported that the first home loan interest rate of the four major industrial and agricultural banks has been adjusted to LPR (loan market quote rate) +55BP (basis point), and the second home loan is LPR+75BP. Previously, the first home was LPR+40BP, and the second home was LPR+40BP. LPR+60BP.

After the change, the interest rate for the first home loan is 5.2%, while the second home is 5.4%.

  "Guangzhou has already said that it has stopped lending. Now that housing loan interest rates are adjusted, the pace of subsequent credit issuance may also slow down." Yan Yuejin said that this further reflects the orientation of credit policy tightening.

  "The reason for the tightening of credit in Guangzhou and other places is the recent property market speculation, and the work of credit concentration management is being implemented. Credit tightening will restrict market transactions and help market stability." Yan Yuejin said, "but in reality, It is necessary to guard against risks such as panic buying of houses and breach of existing purchase contracts. At the same time, it is necessary to prevent accidental injury to reasonable housing demand.