(Economic Observation) Will China's first- and second-tier real estate market turn around in the new year's regulation and control of real estate?

  China News Agency, Beijing, January 27th (Reporter Pang Wuji) Shortly after the start of 2021, China's first and second-tier property market ushered in a wave of intensive regulation of "cold water".

  On the 26th, Xinhua News Agency reported that Ni Hong, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of China, led a team to Shanghai, Shenzhen and other places to investigate and supervise the real estate market.

Ni Hong emphasized that if problems are discovered, they should act promptly, take targeted measures, guide good expectations, and resolutely curb speculation in real estate.

  In the past week, Shanghai, Shenzhen and other first-tier cities have successively issued regulatory tightening policies.

On the evening of January 21, Shanghai issued the "Shanghai Ten Articles" of the new regulation and control policy.

Four days later, Shanghai introduced another "plugging" measure to include foreclosure housing purchase restrictions.

Shenzhen has introduced tightening measures for the property market three times in a week, including stipulating that families buying commercial houses can only be registered under the names of members who are qualified to buy houses, and penalizing 12 people suspected of illegally subscribing to the first phase of China Resources City Runxi, etc. .

  It is worth noting that in the near future, substantial control measures have also begun to surface.

Some media have revealed that mortgage loans in Guangzhou and Shenzhen have been tight recently, and buyers have to wait in line for loans.

According to another report, the four major banks in Guangzhou began to increase mortgage interest rates on the 27th. After the change, the interest rate for the first home loan in Guangzhou was 5.2%, while the second home loan was 5.4%.

  Different from the "patch" policy upgrade, the interest rate and down payment of mortgage loans have always been the "seven inches" of the property market.

Why did Guangzhou start regulation from housing loans?

  Li Yujia, the chief researcher of the Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center, said in an interview with a reporter from China News Agency that the main reason was the large amount of housing loans in Guangzhou last year and the high popularity of the property market.

Last year, a total of 220,000 sets of second-hand houses in Guangzhou's new houses were traded, the transaction scale reached the second highest in history, and the transaction amount hit a record high.

Second-hand house prices generally exceed RMB 30,000 per square meter, and the increase in house prices ranks 9th among the 70 large and medium-sized cities across the country.

  At the end of last year and January of this year, the Guangzhou property market saw a tailspin.

Li Yujia believes that the recent tightening of housing loans is to cool the local property market in terms of quotas and interest rates.

  This may be a signal to the national property market, especially in places where the property market is hot.

Li Yujia pointed out that the scale of China's social financing was large last year, and housing loans were also at a historical high.

Some funds entered the property market "under the cloak of real economy loans, even small, medium and micro loans".

This is precisely the object of strict supervision.

Since last year, China has emphasized the strengthening of macro-prudential management of real estate finance. The recent tightening of loan quotas in many places is related to this.

In addition to Guangzhou, Li Yujia revealed that it is currently understood that cities such as Wuxi, Zhengzhou, Dongguan, and Foshan have also begun to tighten bank loan limits.

  Mortgage loan quota control and rising loan interest rates will directly increase the cost of buying a house. Will the property market cool down?

  Li Yujia believes that the increasing cost of buying houses and the prolonged pace of loans will have a great impact on real estate transactions.

At present, real estate prices in many cities have reached new highs, and most purchases of houses have to be leveraged, and the control of financing limits will directly affect the market. Of course, this also depends on the subsequent policy strength.

At present, taking Guangzhou as an example, the increase in the interest rate of Guangzhou Bank will not have a big impact on the property market.

  However, if the loan quota continues to be controlled and the loan issuance cycle lengthens, this will mean that the pace of transactions will slow down and the transaction volume of the property market will also decline, similar to the decline in the turnover rate in the stock market, and asset popularity will be affected.

  Will the current round of the property market peak and fall back?

Experts believe that this needs to see whether the control of the housing loan policy is further expanded.

There are already signs of this. The number of first- and second-tier cities that have recently announced tightening of the property market is increasing, and areas with tight mortgages are also increasing.

  Experts believe that if subsequent regulatory policies, especially housing loans, continue to increase and expand, there is a high probability that the current round of the housing market cycle will peak.