The end of the real estate speculation feast, 7 days and 5 shots!

House prices go like this

  Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, January 27 (Dong Xiangyi) Since the end of 2020, the property market in first-tier cities represented by Shenzhen and Shanghai has been extremely hot. The Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client noticed that within 7 days, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, and Hefei have issued regulatory policies to curb the "housing rush" by strengthening purchase restrictions, tightening mortgages, and ensuring rigid demand.

The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development responded quickly and went to Shanghai, Shenzhen and other places for research and supervision.

Will this round of regulation in 2021 sweep other regions?

Can the market cool off before the Spring Festival?

Is it possible for house prices to fall?

  Many people in the industry said in an interview with a reporter from China-Singapore Jingwei that intensive control in multiple locations is conducive to curbing the false fires in current hot cities and avoiding short-term market out-of-control, but follow-up restrictions on the disorderly entry of funds into the real estate market, otherwise the intensity of control may be affected. Be diluted.

In the first quarter of this year, it is expected that house prices will continue to rise, and the growth rate may slow down.

  New latitude and longitude in the data map

Shanghai takes the lead

7 days 5 regulation

  On January 21, Shanghai fired the "first shot" of 2021 property market regulation. Shanghai's eight departments jointly issued the "Opinions on Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the City's Real Estate Market", which involved land, purchase restrictions, credit, taxes and fees.

The analysis believes that the introduction of Shanghai's new house purchase policy mainly played a certain role in cooling the second-hand housing transaction market.

  One of Shanghai's most ruthless tricks is to block the road of false divorce-if the couple is divorced, if either party purchases commercial housing within 3 years from the date of divorce, the number of housing units owned by the couple is calculated based on the total number of families before the divorce.

Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of the E-House Research Institute, said that in the past, fake divorces could be used to defraud the qualification to buy a house, but now even the divorce still affects the purchase of houses in the last three years.

  In fact, since the second half of 2020, many cities such as Shenzhen and Chengdu have clarified the divorce period. The difference is that some cities have a two-year period, while Shanghai has upgraded it to three years.

Relatively speaking, Shanghai's policy is stricter, directly blocking the opportunity to buy a house through false divorce.

  Shenzhen wins in the frequency of regulation.

From January 19th to January 23rd, Shenzhen carried out 3 "anti-counterfeiting" activities within 5 days.

  On January 23, the Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a notice specifically to enable the "House Purchase Intention Registration System". Real estate development companies and real estate brokerage agencies can work with relevant commercial banks to strictly enforce the marriage status, individual tax list, and source of house purchase payments. Verification.

Those suspected of violating public security management laws and regulations will be transferred to the public security organs for handling.

  The regulation in Shanghai and Shenzhen is just an "appetizer", and Hangzhou has pushed this round of regulation to a climax.

  Today (27th), Hangzhou issued the "Notice on Further Strengthening the Regulation and Control of the Real Estate Market", clarifying that those who have settled in the city for less than 5 years will be restricted to purchase one house within the scope of the city's purchase restriction.

If a house within the scope of this city’s purchase restriction is given to others, the donor must have 3 years to purchase a house within the scope of purchase restriction; the recipient’s family must comply with this city’s housing purchase restriction policy (excluding bequests).

  "Hangzhou is the most comprehensive in terms of patching the purchase restriction policy." Yan Yuejin explained that in the past, house gifting became a routine way to bypass purchase restrictions, but now it is controlled.

Among them, if the donator is a gift house, then he cannot buy other real estate immediately, and the donated person must also meet the eligibility for house purchase if he wants to obtain this kind of gift house.

  In addition, Guangzhou and Hefei have focused their attention on the recent behavior of some property owners to drive up housing prices.

On January 22, Hefei issued a notice stating that timely interviews should be made with property owners suspected of inciting collective price increases and malicious speculation in housing prices; real estate management and other departments suspend processing related second-hand housing online signing procedures and adopt measures such as restricting their purchases and sales of housing.

Those who conduct activities in the name of social organizations for housing price guidance without registration with the civil affairs department without legal procedures shall be banned in accordance with the law.

Anyone who publishes false housing and false housing prices on online platforms and maliciously bid up housing prices will be investigated and punished according to law.

  According to media reports, on January 19, the Housing Construction and Landscape Bureau of Tianhe District, Guangzhou City issued a reminder letter to crack down on all kinds of speculative property speculation and drive up housing prices that disrupt market order.

  Among the above cities, Shanghai and Hangzhou have clarified the value-added tax policies for the transfer of second-hand houses, that is, within the scope of purchase restrictions, the period of time for the VAT exemption for the transfer of individual houses has been adjusted from 2 years to 5 years.

Currently, at least six cities across the country have upgraded their value-added tax policies, including Shenzhen, Wuxi, Shenyang, Chengdu, Shanghai and Hangzhou.

In Yan Yuejin's view, "this is a very strong signal, that is, in terms of subsequent second-hand housing transactions, the upgrade of the value-added tax policy is a high probability event."

Guangzhou "forced" to tighten mortgages

Beijing and Guangyuan detour to suppress false fire in the property market

  In addition to taking the initiative, Beijing and Guangzhou have bypassed the regulation of the property market by tightening loans.

  According to the "Guangzhou Daily" report, the Guangzhou banking industry has received window guidance, and personal mortgage loans have also been subject to "dual control"; at the beginning of 2021, Beijing has imposed strict restrictions on the premium rate of land auctions.

  According to reports, the four major banks of China Construction Industry and Agriculture Group raised the housing mortgage loan interest rate in Guangzhou. Among them, the first house was adjusted from the original minimum LPR+20 basis points to LPR+55 basis points; the second house was changed from the original LPR+6 basis points. This is LPR+79 basis points.

After the adjustment, the interest rate for the first home loan after the change was 5.2%, while the second home loan was 5.44%.

Some media have calculated an account. If the first home loan is 3 million yuan, the term is 30 years, the monthly payment will rise from 1,5830.75 yuan to 16,473.33 yuan, and an additional monthly payment of 642.58 yuan.

  Why did Guangzhou suddenly take control?

In fact, it is not sudden, but passive.

Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center, believes that in 2020, the Guangzhou property market has been "making a fortune in silence."

The transaction volume of new houses surpassed the 100,000 mark, and the transaction of second-hand houses rebounded after three consecutive years of decline, increasing by 22%.

Now that both Shanghai and Shenzhen have been regulated, Shenzhen has continued to apply patches. If Guangzhou does not make some comments, it is really impossible to justify.

  Li Yujia said that in recent years, money supply and credit policies have increasingly affected the property market.

If the loan is really controlled this time, the fast-paced property market transactions in hot cities will naturally slow down.

The biggest impact of this mortgage quota control is that the scale of new and second-hand housing transactions will decrease, cooling the property market.

  He predicted that in the first half of 2021, especially the first quarter, the policy of "controlling mortgages and tightening quotas" will continue to be implemented in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen.

Real estate speculation?

Housing prices may slow down in the first quarter

  Recently, Ni Hong, Deputy Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, led a team to Shanghai, Shenzhen and other places to investigate and supervise the real estate market.

Ni Hong emphasized that we must adhere to the problem-oriented approach, deal with problems in a timely manner, take targeted measures, guide good expectations, and resolutely curb speculation.

   Screenshot of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development

  What kind of signal does the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development take action and multi-city regulation?

What is the trend of follow-up regulation?

Can the upward momentum of house prices be "held down"?

  Chen Xiao, an analyst at the Zhuge Housing Data Research Center, said in an interview with a reporter from China-Singapore Jingwei that recently, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and other core key cities have successively introduced control policies, most of which are "patches" for the previous policies, but they also It pointed out the policy trend in 2021, and conveyed the policy determination to live out of the house without speculation. At the same time, it indicated that once the market becomes too hot and house prices change, the property market regulation will inevitably be upgraded.

  Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, analyzed that “this round of regulation is a top-down regulation, which has a cooling effect on the short-term market, but has not affected the root cause of this round of rise. Patch policies and implementation efforts for trendy and operating loans.” Zhang Dawei pointed out that in the future, we will also restrict the disorderly entry of funds into real estate, otherwise the intensity of control policies may be diluted.

  Chen Xiao believes that, on the whole, most of the regulatory policies introduced by most cities focus on housing qualifications, combating false divorces, giving priority to housing purchases that just need to be purchased, and adjusting the VAT exemption period. In the short term, the popularity of transactions may decline. However, the overall performance of the policy is mediocre.

In the first quarter of this year, it is expected that house prices will continue to rise, and the growth rate may slow down.

  “As long as the regulation is regulated, it is certainly possible to'click'. Tightening of policies will definitely have an impact on housing management and sales order control.” Yan Yuejin told a reporter from Sino-Singapore Jingwei, “To some extent, the market has already It has clearly deviated from the expectations of regulation. At this time, the pressure to control housing prices and prevent financial risks has increased significantly. Except for cities such as Shanghai, Hefei, and Hangzhou, it cannot be ruled out that other places will also tighten."

  Yan Yuejin emphasized that the successive introduction of current policies may intensify panic transactions in the market and trigger speculation in housing prices and housing. This is especially important.

But as long as bank credit is tightened, it is possible that the market will cool slightly in the first quarter of this year.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

(The opinions in the article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)

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