In the Danish waters of the harsh and windy, especially in the current winter times, and historically, in general, the not very gentle Baltic Sea, hard working days have finally begun again.
As the operator of Nord Stream 2 AG reported, the Russian barge Fortuna completed preparatory work as scheduled and resumed laying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.
As the company specifically specified (we quote), "the work is proceeding in accordance with the received approvals."
That is, everything is planned.
In full spiritual, legal and organizational agreement with the capricious European (in this case Danish) authorities and with pre-planned schedules.
As if there was no long break in the work associated with the withdrawal from the project of the Swiss who wavered under the American sanctions.
And that did not allow laying the remaining relatively small section of this very necessary not only for Germany, but also for the entire industrial continental Europe of the Russian-European "pipe".
Now the completion will be carried out by Fortuna, which has already laid a small section of the pipe in the German shallow water at the end of last year.
To which, apparently, in February the pipe-laying vessel Akademik Chersky will also join, whose journey from the Far East to the Baltic was watched with such trepidation by the European and American media.
At least a few supply and escort vessels in the German waters of the Akademik are in fact already awaiting.
And in spite of some informational secrecy of the Nord Stream 2 AG project, which is quite understandable in the current difficult conditions, it will not be very difficult to draw proper conclusions about the timing of the completion of the work - there is still quite enough information in the public domain.
According to our estimates, this is about the end of May - the beginning of June (meaning, in fact, the technical completion of construction) of the current year, plus a month or two for the project to be put into operation.
Most importantly, there are no longer any technical obstacles to complete the project in hardware.
Unless, of course, suddenly there is no next European force majeure associated with American sanctions.
But this is unlikely, of course.
This does not mean at all that in the future the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline will face some very easy and cloudless fate, not at all.
We have already had to write more than once that with the technical completion of construction, the confrontation around the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline will only grow.
However, for the most part this will not be our question.
More precisely, not only ours.
For Russia, after the technical commissioning of the gas pipeline and the obvious loss of its political and integration significance, Nord Stream 2 becomes (here Frau Merkel is right) an exclusively commercial project for the delivery of Russian gas to European consumers.
Which is both built together and operated together.
Well, why, excuse me, would the same Russian "Gazprom" run in such conditions with this never-extinguishing torch ahead of the European carriage itself?
Enough already, have been "Europeans more than Europeans themselves."
In this situation, if on the market, purely theoretically, Gazprom can wrinkle its forehead and choose the most convenient in terms of logistics and a cheaper option for delivering its quite scarce to the consumer - and this is the main thing!
- for the present time of the goods.
But, unfortunately, only purely in theory.
Now let's try to explain.
Even the current, abnormally cold winter, which caused an explainable increase in gas consumption in Europe and at the same time a sharp rise in prices on the spot market, which was caused by an even sharper rise in prices for blue fuel in the premium markets of Southeast Asia, did not lead to a shortage of transit capacities for delivery Russian natural gas to European markets.
Moreover, along the Ukrainian corridor, the export of Russian gas to Europe even decreased by about a third (and this is against the background of a sharp rise in prices!), About which Ukraine immediately began to complain everywhere.
However, she always complains.
True, it is not yet very clear to whom.
The fact is that such a decision to reduce transit through the gas transportation system of the “young Ukrainian democracy” clearly could not have been made only by one Russian monopoly supplier, that is, the Gazprom company - it simply does not happen.
Any transaction in business has at least two sides, and such issues are simply technologically impossible to solve without the will of European buyers.
To think otherwise is a very dangerous illusion, and not only for the Ukrainian side itself.
But more on that later.
In the meantime, as for the Ukrainian GTS itself, I’ll say one very sad thing now, just let the Ukrainians not be offended.
It's just that recent events very clearly and quite clearly demonstrate (and it's strange that Ukraine does not pay attention to this) that it is Europe that considers Nord Stream 2 now, first of all, not as a promising project that is embedded in the growing European economy, as it was declared from the very beginning of construction.
In the current situation, it just seems obvious that they, first of all, now really consider Nord Stream 2 in terms of functionality precisely as a replacement for the Ukrainian GTS.
And now we will try to explain why.
The fact is that neither the European nor the Russian side is going to refuse to use the Ukrainian GTS in principle.
Especially if it is profitable: business is a pretty mean thing, and no politics can interrupt the profit.
But no self-respecting party (neither the seller's, nor the buyers') can seriously consider this dilapidated heap of scrap metal, which runs along an extremely unstable economically and politically territory, as a strategic transit corridor.
The reason for this is understandable and extremely simple: it would be just complete madness to seriously plan something on Ukrainian territory within a year or three.
Because even such a future, if the question concerns Ukraine, cannot be predicted at all.
The initial data are too vague and potential changes in trends are unpredictable: no one will give any guarantees.
And planning in the energy sector is even operational, not strategic!
- is carried out based on very long time intervals, we are talking not even about years, but about decades.
In order to be convinced of this, you do not need to invent anything - just look at the payback periods of the same Power of Siberia or Nord Stream 2.
Moreover, for some reason, specialized specialists are not very fond of talking about this, but the very technical condition of the Ukrainian "pipe", which has long been in need of modernization, causes too much concern.
Even the Ukrainians themselves are forced to admit, forgetting, however, to say that, judging by the old report of the international company Mott MacDonald, drawn up at the beginning of the last decade, Ukraine already needed about $ 4.5 billion for urgent modernization of the "pipe". And scary imagine how much is required now: even some conventional "Nord Stream-3" will cost a little cheaper.
That is, some short-term pumping through the Ukrainian GTS can be planned in the future, and no one says that the Ukrainian pipe will not be used after the expiration of this contract.
Good transit price, more or less clear security conditions, "short" - why not.
But rely on this unclear future of education as a strategic transit country when concluding long-term contracts, on which the energy security of the entire continent depends ?!
Well, with all my love for Ukrainian democracy, if I were Europeans, I personally would not risk it.
And that is why the official representative of the German government, Steffen Seibert, said yesterday that Germany, like its Chancellor Angela Merkel, adheres to its previous position on the Nord Stream 2 project.
Moreover, this statement was clearly made on the day of the meeting of the foreign ministers of the EU countries: this was said primarily for them - Germany's position is unchanged.
And the pipe-laying barge "Fortuna" is now working primarily for Germany and for its partners.
And in her, German, interests.
No, for Russia too: we are interested in continuing to supply continental Europe with strategic energy raw materials, this is a good business.
And these are our traditional markets, after all.
But as soon as the gas pipeline is completed and Germany has the technical ability to receive Russian natural gas through it, then the most interesting things for Europe will begin.
Because in this situation it will be completely pointless to put pressure on Russia.
And from now on, our common "overseas partners" will be sanctioned exclusively by Europe.
Yes, already, in general, they are being processed.
And Europe (primarily Germany), it seems, already understands all this perfectly.
And he is preparing to defend his own interests as much as possible.
Yes, they, in general, have no other way out even mathematically.
For the Russian Gazprom, energy raw materials are now just a commodity, and the gas pipeline being completed is another route for delivering the goods to the consumer.
For Europe, Nord Stream 2 within the next two or three years may become a question of energy security and economic survival, and this is just something very naive not to understand.
The author's point of view may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.