The hypothesis of a third confinement is becoming clearer over the days, faced with the epidemic situation in France.

The health authorities are scrutinizing the indicators, in particular that of the circulation of variants of the virus.

As for the government, meetings are multiplying.

A containment as in November seems privileged but two lines clash. 

DECRYPTION

Are we going to be re-confined?

The hypothesis is becoming more and more probable, a few days before a health defense council to be held on Wednesday.

If he defends himself and ensures that the decision is not yet taken, the executive seems to be preparing the spirits for this eventuality for several days.

"Decisions will be taken this week," Prime Minister Jean Castex said on Monday, while meetings are linked to the highest state summit.

The epidemic indicators of the coming hours will be decisive and particularly scrutinized by the health authorities, in particular that of the spread of variants. 

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According to the first survey, which estimated its circulation at the start of January, we were at 1.4% of Covid cases from this British variant.

From now on, we would rather be around 7 to 9% in certain regions, in particular the Paris region, according to immunologist Jean-François Delfraissy. 

Variants almost create the equivalent of a second pandemic

These British variants, but also South African or Brazilian, completely change the situation, affirms the president of the Scientific Council.

They almost recreate the equivalent of a second pandemic because they are spreading much faster and for the moment, at low noise in France.

British researchers speak of a variant number multiplied by six or eight each month.

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Public Health France hopes to launch a new flash survey this week.

As for the first, it will be a question of identifying the suspected cases over two days thanks to certain PCR tests which give atypical reactions, characteristic of the presence of the British variant.

And to confirm these results by genetic sequencing.

The novelty this time is that the laboratories should also be able to use PCR tests which give alerts on South African variants.

The hypothesis of confinement as in November

In the meantime, several scenarios are on the government's table, ranging from the status quo to total containment of the country.

The hypothesis that comes up the most is that of a confinement similar to that experienced last November, or the return of certificates, a limitation of travel, the establishment of telework but open schools.

Question mark in this table: the organization of winter school holidays.

Some plead for a regrouping of zones A, B and C, while others push for an extension of the period of leave.

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As before each health decision, the executive is divided into two lines.

The "sanitary" line, which wants a strict and rapid cover to lower the epidemic curves, opposing the economic and political line which defends the need to leave businesses open and especially social acceptance.

The anti-curfew demonstrations in Spain and Denmark, as well as in the Netherlands, where they have been marred by violence, undoubtedly also weigh in the balance.

At the end of the defense council on Wednesday, the horizon should become clearer for the French as to the upcoming restrictions and their timetables.