It has been three weeks since the state of emergency was declared, but we will take a closer look at how the infection situation has changed based on the data released by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government and others.

A government subcommittee has provided six indicators for determining infection status.


The most serious "Stage IV" guideline numbers are in the upper row.


In the latest figures, the four indicators are still above the "Stage IV" guideline.

Looking at the latest figures for Tokyo,


▽ "bed usage rate" is 70.0% when calculated based on the announcement by Tokyo, of which 62.4% is for severely ill people, and


▽ "number of medical treatment" is 130.9 per 100,000,


▽ "Positive rate of PCR tests, etc." averaged 9.8% per week until 22nd,


▽ "Number of newly infected people" averaged 60.5 per 100,000 per week,


▽ "Recent" "Comparison of the number of infected people in one week and the previous week" was 0.8 times, and


"Percentage of people whose infection route is unknown" was 55.8%.



Except for "Positive rate" and "Comparison of the number of infected people in the previous week", it exceeds the standard of stage IV.



Looking at the changes in the status of infection and the tightness of beds, the number of newly infected people tends to decrease in Tokyo, but the bed usage rate for critically ill patients tends to increase, and the burden on medical institutions is heavy. Is continuing.

Number of newly infected people in Tokyo

In Tokyo, the average number of newly infected people per 100,000 population was 61.9 in the week leading up to the 7th of this month when the state of emergency was declared.



After that, it increased to 91.1 as of the 11th, but has been declining since then, reaching 60.5 as of the 24th.



However, in the stage index showing the infection status, the situation continues to exceed the most serious "Stage IV" guideline, "25 people".

Tokyo positive rate

In addition, the positive rate of PCR tests, etc. was 14.5% on average for the week until the 7th of this month, which was higher than the most serious "Stage IV" guideline, but it is gradually decreasing. The average weekly rate up to the 22nd of this month is 9.8%.

Tokyo, sickbed tight

On the other hand, the tightness of beds continues to remain high.



According to the announcement by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government, the "utilization rate of reserved beds" was 78.9% as of the 7th of this month, but has risen to 85.7% as of the 12th.



After that, it has been on a downward trend, but as of the 24th, it has remained high at 70.0%.

Tokyo / Severe bed usage rate

More serious is the tightness of beds for critically ill patients.



The bed occupancy rate of patients who were considered to be severely ill according to Tokyo standards was 48.4% as of the 7th of this month, but 54% on the 14th, one week later, for two weeks. It was 63.6% on the 21st.



As of the 24th, the situation continued to exceed 60% at 62.4%, and both the entire bed and the bed for the severely ill were over the most serious "Stage IV" standard value of "50%", and the burden on medical institutions was heavy. The state continues.

Osaka Prefecture also has a tight bed usage rate of over 70%

A state of emergency was declared on the 13th of this month for seven prefectures, including Osaka.



Looking at the changes in the infection status and the tightness of beds in Osaka Prefecture, the number of infected people is on a slight decline, but the usage rate of beds continues to be severe, exceeding 70%.

Osaka ・ Number of newly infected people

According to the announcement by Osaka Prefecture, the average number of newly infected people per 100,000 population was 29.7 in the week until the 7th of this month when the state of emergency was declared in Tokyo, but it increased sharply and Osaka. As of the 13th, when the state of emergency was declared to the prefecture, the number was 43.5.



After that, the number decreased slightly, reaching 38.1 in the week leading up to the 24th, but the situation continues to exceed the most serious "Stage IV" guideline, "25".

Osaka / Positive rate

In addition, according to the announcement by Osaka Prefecture, the positive rate of PCR tests, etc., shows that the weekly average value tends to peak at 9.0% around the 13th of this month, and was 7.7% as of the 24th.

Osaka, sickbed tight

On the other hand, the tightness of the bed continues to exceed 70%.



The “maximum ratio of beds that can be secured” was 68.3% on the 13th of this month, but has continued to exceed 70% since the 15th, reaching 75.8% as of the 24th.

Osaka / Severe bed usage rate

Of these, the tightness of beds for critically ill patients was more serious, with most of the days being 80% or more after the 13th when the state of emergency was declared, and 87.0% on the 15th and 18th.



As of the 24th, it was 81.4%, exceeding the most serious "Stage IV" standard value of "50%" for both the entire bed and the bed for the severely ill, and the burden on medical institutions is heavy as in Tokyo. Is continuing.

Expert "Carefully determine if the decline will continue"

Regarding the status of the new coronavirus in Tokyo and Osaka, Professor Kazuhiro Tateda of Toho University, the chairman of the Japan Society for Infectious Diseases, said, "In both Tokyo and Osaka, the number of positives per 100,000 and the positive rate of PCR tests are There is a tendency to decrease, which is a good sign. In Tokyo, two weeks after the declaration of an emergency, the rate of decrease is large, and there is a possibility that the countermeasures are effective. Also, Osaka prefecture is as much as Tokyo. Although it has not decreased, the declaration was issued about a week after Tokyo, so there is a possibility that the decreasing trend will become clearer in the future. "



On the other hand, regarding the increasing usage rate of beds for the severely ill, "Patients with the new coronavirus become more severe after the onset, so the usage rate of the beds for the severely ill will not decrease for a while. It is expected that it will continue. It is not yet a good situation to be relieved because the tightness of medical institutions is expected to continue for a while. "



Regarding the future, Professor Tateda said, "Whether the current measures centered on eating and drinking places are really effective can only be evaluated by seeing whether the number of infected people continues to decrease steadily. If there are any signs of an increase, it will be difficult to control with the current measures, and we will have to take stronger measures such as requesting other industries to shorten the working hours or take leave. It will be gone. This week or so is an important time to think about the future while carefully assessing the infection situation. "