It's been more than 10 days since the state of emergency was declared on the 7th of this month.
The explosive spread of infection cannot be stopped.
What on earth is happening?
As we proceeded with the interview, surprising facts became clear one after another.
Elderly people who cannot receive the necessary medical care due to the spread of infection.
Existence of "infected persons who go to work" even though the PCR test is positive.
In addition, researchers warn of the infectivity of "mutant viruses."
The latest survey approaches "infection explosion".
(NHK Special "How to overcome the" infection explosion "crisis" interview group)
Sometimes you can't get the medical care you need
Minato-ku, Tokyo.
Again, the number of infected people is increasing rapidly.
In the week starting January 4, there were 776 people, four times the number of 191 people in the week of December 7.
On this day, the staff of the health center in Minato-ku, Tokyo went to a nursing facility in the ward.
At this facility, one resident was confirmed to be infected at the beginning of the year.
The infection had spread to 14 of the 18 residents.
However, no one has yet found a hospital.
Narumi Hori, a nurse at Minato Public Health Center in Minato Ward,
"The staff are working hard, and people who can be seen as they are are becoming every region. That's because (beds) aren't available."
Immediately after returning to the health center, I was informed that the care facility I had just asked had called an ambulance.
The condition of the resident suddenly changed.
However, there was no hospital to accept it, and I wanted them to look for it at a health center.
Multiple public health nurses will search by hand.
"Isn't it difficult for an 86-year-old woman to be hospitalized?"
"Sorry. It's difficult to be hospitalized from this time. That's right. I understand."
"All useless"
"All useless?"
"I'm calling 11 places now."
The condition of the resident is getting worse every moment without finding the hospital to be hospitalized.
I decided to contact my family and tell them that they could not get medical care and die.
(Public health nurse calling family)
"It may be a little difficult to be healthy until the hospital is decided, but it may be the reality. Until the hospital is decided, it's really gone. There is a place where you can only believe in the vitality of the person. ”
Minato Ward Minato Public Health Center Director Kayo Matsumoto
“ If the number increases as it is said to be an infection explosion now, the life you want to protect cannot be protected. There may be some people coming out. "
“Infected person who goes to work”
What is behind the explosive spread of infection?
The health center in Minato Ward may now be feeling a sense of crisis.
As soon as the health center receives the "report of outbreak" of a person who has a positive test submitted by a doctor, he / she will be contacted to prevent the spread of infection and confirm his / her health condition.
However, there are an increasing number of cases where people who are found to be positive cannot be contacted.
When there are many, one in six does not answer the phone.
Hisako Arai, Chief of Infectious Disease Control, Minato Public Health Center, Minato-ku
"This person hasn't answered (on the phone) since the 9th. I've been on the answering machine three times, but he hasn't answered all the time. What's wrong? Some people say they couldn't get out, but some people may not like behavioral surveys. "
In some cases, he goes out while waiting for the results of the PCR test.
The person I contacted on this day was a woman in her thirties who turned out to be positive.
"I did a PCR test, but I went to work, huh."
"The mask was done properly. Yeah, that's right." The
infection spread in women's workplaces, and we decided to do PCR tests for everyone in the workplace. became.
Hisako Arai, Chief of Infectious Disease Control, Minato Public Health Center, Minato-ku
"I think that the PCR test may be a corona on my own, but I don't have to wait for the result, I meet people. I think people who didn't understand the meaning so much and didn't stop their actions are the ones who spread the most. "
Mutant virus threat
New concerns have been raised as the spread of the infection remains unstoppable.
It is a mutated virus.
In the United Kingdom and other countries, it has become a major problem worldwide due to its violence.
What happens if the mutant virus spreads?
This is a treatise published by a British university last month.
We analyze that the effective reproduction number, which indicates how many people are infected from one infected person, is 0.4 to 0.7 higher than before.
What does it mean to have a higher effective regeneration math?
For example, if the effective regeneration arithmetic is 2, the total number of infected people one month later is 127.
When the effective regeneration math reaches 3, it will infect 1093 people a month later.
Professor Hiroshi Nishiura, Kyoto University
"There is a possibility that the number of infected people will increase at a speed that far exceeds the response speed of patient accommodation. It also means that the number of seriously ill patients will increase, so it will be a burden for medical institutions That will increase by an order of magnitude. ”As of
January 19, 47 people, mainly immigrants, have been confirmed to be infected in Japan.
The National Institute of Infectious Diseases collects samples of positive individuals from health research institutes nationwide and strengthens monitoring.
However, nowadays, it takes time to analyze all the genetic information of the virus, and only about 10% of the total is being investigated.
Therefore, we are developing a faster inspection method and aiming to strengthen the nationwide inspection system.
Hideki Hasegawa, Director, Influenza Virus Research Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases
"Currently, we are checking by quarantine for border measures. It is difficult to prevent it completely, and that kind of thing (spread of mutant virus) in Japan ) Does not occur. I think it is important to investigate immediately. "