Chinanews client, Beijing, January 15 (Peng Jingru) "The real estate market prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities have risen steadily." On January 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released data on housing prices in 70 cities in December 2020.
Among them, the price of new houses in 4 first-tier cities increased by 0.3% month-on-month, and the price of second-hand houses increased by 0.6% month-on-month, both of which were larger than the previous month.
What is the reason for this wave of house prices?
Is the increase normal?
Will it continue to rise in 2021?
Data map: real estate.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Bin
Housing prices in first-tier cities have accelerated, driving the housing price index in 70 cities
Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of the Shell Research Institute, believes that December 2020 will mainly be driven by price increases in first-tier cities.
"The price increase of new and second-hand houses in first-tier cities has expanded, and the price increase in Guangzhou and Shanghai has been relatively large. This is a manifestation of the end-of-the-end market, but the end-of-end market is significantly higher than the previous year."
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in December, the sales price of newly-built commercial residential buildings in four first-tier cities rose by 0.3% month-on-month, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.
Among them, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou rose 0.3%, 0.2% and 0.7% respectively, and Shenzhen fell 0.1%.
The sales price of second-hand housing increased by 0.6% month-on-month, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month.
Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose 0.5%, 0.6%, 0.7% and 0.5% respectively.
"House prices in first-tier cities have risen across the board, and they are accelerating." Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Property, said that second-hand housing data best represents the true market conditions in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
The sales price index of second-hand housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in December 2020.
Screenshot from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics
According to data from the Shell Research Institute, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in four first-tier cities increased by 20.5% month-on-month in December. Among them, the monthly transaction volume of Guangzhou and Shanghai hit a new high since 2019.
Zhang Dawei believes that the core reasons for the increase in the price of second-hand housing in first-tier cities are: under the influence of the epidemic, the demand for housing in school districts in first-tier cities has increased significantly, and a large number of people studying abroad have returned, which has increased market demand; Shanghai, Shenzhen and other cities are surging. , Making the supply of a small number of newly-built houses scarce, investors entering the market robbed the houses of customers who just needed them, and demand for second-hand houses increased; the real estate market rebounded.
A few days ago, the survey report released by Zhaolian Recruitment shows that in 2020, the number of returnees who submit resumes to domestic positions, that is, those who intend to develop in the country, soared by 33.9% compared with 2019, which is much higher than 2019 (5.3%) and 2018. (4.3%) year-on-year increase.
The first-tier cities are home base camps for overseas returnees who have absorbed 45.1% of job applications.
Data map: Buyers understand real estate information on site.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Chen Chao
"In 2020, the credit growth will set a new historical record. Corporate loans and personal mortgage loans in some cities are relatively loose, which also stimulates demand in first-tier cities." Zhang Dawei said.
From the perspective of time nodes, Xu Xiaole believes that this is related to the year-end market improvement and the rotation of the housing exchange sector such as educational resources.
“In first-tier cities, second-hand houses are usually better than new houses to meet the needs of buyers for improved location and supporting facilities. At the end of the year, the contradiction between supply and demand in the second-hand market has tightened, so the increase is relatively large.
The property market is hot in the south and cold in the north, Yangzhou's new and second-hand housing prices lead the country
In addition to the rise in housing prices in first-tier cities, the dark horse of Yangzhou has also attracted attention from all parties.
"From the perspective of cities, Yangzhou's new house and second-hand house prices have both led the country in terms of price increase, with a month-on-month increase of 0.8% and 0.9%, respectively. This is evident in the market." Chen Xiao, an analyst at the Zhuge Real Estate Data Research Center, said this is because of Yangzhou. Relying on the Yangtze River Delta Economic Circle, it is also driven by talent policies.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, believes that the recent large increase in the price of first-hand housing in Yangzhou will objectively affect the data of second-hand housing.
But one thing is worthy of affirmation, even if the largest increase, it did not exceed 1%.
The sales price index of newly-built commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities in December 2020.
Screenshot from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics
"Because judging from the popularity of the housing price index, more than 1% can basically be defined as overheated cities. So from this perspective, at least the pressure to stabilize housing prices will be less." Yan Yuejin explained.
He said that from the list of cities, it can be seen that the cities with larger increases are generally cities in the East China region, including Yangzhou, Fuzhou, Jinhua, Hefei and Xiamen.
For Fuzhou and Xiamen, the market is at the bottom of the rebound, so it is easy to see the phenomenon of excessively rapid housing prices.
"Fuzhou does have a dazzling performance. The prices of new and second-hand houses have risen by 0.7% and 0.8% respectively, second only to Yangzhou. But overall, the price increase in the city is within 1%." Chen Xiao said.
The rising trend of house prices in the first quarter may continue, and the growth rate is expected to slow down
Zhang Bo, Dean of 58 Anju Guest House Industry Research Institute, said that the property market is currently hot in the south and cold in the north. The increase in popularity in the south, especially in the Yangtze River Delta and the Greater Bay Area, has driven the pressure of rising housing prices in the urban agglomeration; and northern cities have begun to appear The trend of bottoming in housing prices.
"It is expected that in 2021, the trend of hotness in the south and coldness in the north will be eased, and the housing market will gradually return to rationality. Some northern cities, such as Tianjin, Shandong Qingdao and Jinan, and even some second-tier cities in the northeast, may usher in a market recovery in the first quarter. "
Data map: Home buyers recommend commercial housing types to the public.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Wei Liang
Regarding the “tail-up” first-tier cities, Zhang Bo said that in the first quarter of 2021, the trend of housing price increases in first-tier cities will slow down, and there may be a second wave of rising room after the Spring Festival, but the overall housing price increase is still controllable .
Xu Xiaole believes that the market will focus on core cities in 2021, and housing prices in some cities will face greater upward pressure.
According to data from the Shell Research Institute, the cities with high market prosperity indexes in the first week of 2021 are mainly located in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The prosperity indexes of cities such as Shanghai and Hefei are around 40 and above. These cities will have greater pressure on prices in the later period.
"From the perspective of market trends, although most cities are still in the process of rising, the calculated average rate of increase has slowed down compared to before." Zhang Dawei said that in 2020, there will be a trend of tightening regulatory policies in various regions, and national real estate regulation will be in 2020. The cumulative number of times in a single month in December of the year was 31, and the total number of times of national real estate control policies from January to December during the year was as high as 489.
"The real estate market's positioning of'housing to live without speculation' remains unchanged, and localities frequently increase regulation. It is expected that the trend of rising housing prices in the first quarter of 2021 will continue, but as regulation tightens, price increases will slow down." Chen Xiao said.
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