Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, January 13 (Xue Yufei) "The transaction volume of second-hand residential properties in Shanghai in December approached 40,000, which is a very high volume. The current market is very similar to when I first entered the industry in 2016. "Chen Hong (a pseudonym), an agent of a Shanghai real estate brokerage company, described the current Shanghai real estate market in this way.
According to data from the E-House Research Institute, in December 2020, Shanghai's second-hand residential transaction volume reached about 39,000 sets, a record high for many years, and the annual second-hand residential transaction volume reached a four-year high.
Data map: the property market.
Photo by Sino-Singapore Jingwei Wan Keyi
The transaction volume of second-hand residential buildings increased, especially in the second half of the year, which occurred in the four first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
According to data provided by the Shell Research Institute, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in first-tier cities in 2020 will increase by 23% year-on-year, setting a new high in the past three years.
Based on data from various agencies, the overall housing prices in first-tier cities are relatively stable, but the prices of high-quality housing in core areas, such as school district housing and high-end housing, have increased significantly.
Why does the real estate market in first-tier cities turn warm in the cold winter?
How to go in the future?
Volume hits a new high in recent years
At the beginning of 2020, the epidemic once had an impact on the real estate market. The sales department of new houses was shut down, and second-hand houses were also unavailable for viewing due to the closed management of the community. The market sentiment was relatively pessimistic.
However, as the epidemic has been effectively controlled, demand has rebounded quickly, and the market has emerged from a wave of first decline and then rise, and a tail-raising phenomenon appeared in the second half of the year.
Chen Hong told the Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client that from August 2020, the new housing market in Shanghai has begun to heat up. Except for suburban areas, many projects in the urban area are "hard to find a house" and are popular properties. The recognition ratio can reach one to ten.
"Last month, I had a client and his fiancee who came to our store to inspect the house. At that time, they didn't say that they would buy a house soon. But seeing the market is so hot, they went home to raise money and finally borrowed 13 million yuan. If the market is not hot, He will not buy if he has money, let alone make money temporarily.” Chen Hong also said, “The transaction volume of second-hand houses in Shanghai in December 2020 is approaching 40,000 units, which is a very high volume. The current market It was very similar when I first entered the industry in 2016."
According to data from E-House Research Institute, in December, the number of second-hand housing transactions in Shanghai was about 39,000, an increase of 20.3% month-on-month and 96.2% year-on-year. The transaction volume hit a record high for many years; the number of second-hand housing transactions for the year was about 302,000, year-on-year An increase of 27.0%, reaching a new high in the past four years.
According to data provided by the Shell Research Institute, the volume and price performance of second-hand housing in first-tier cities in 2020 is significantly better than that in low-energy cities, and demand has risen significantly. The overall transaction volume of second-hand housing for the year increased by 23% year-on-year.
Specifically, Shanghai's annual second-hand residential transaction volume increased the most, with about 26%; followed by Guangzhou, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25%; Shenzhen increased by 23% year-on-year. The regulation in the second half of 2020 has significantly cooled market demand, and transactions in the second half of the year The year-on-year growth rate narrowed from 41% in the first half of the year to 11%; the year-on-year growth rate of Beijing's transaction volume was slightly lower, at 16%, but both the transaction volume and growth rate were the highest since 2017.
“The first-tier and four-city property markets have all undergone strict regulation from the end of 2016 to the beginning of 2017. The past three years have generally been in a long period of repair after regulation. The epidemic hit the economy in 2020, and the backlog of demand has been released with loose monetary policy and falling mortgage interest rates. At the same time, first-tier cities have great potential for economic development and strong property preservation capabilities, which are more favored by capital. In 2020, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in the four first-tier cities will all hit a new high in the past three years. The contradiction between housing supply and demand in Shanghai and Shenzhen The tight lead to a large increase in average prices.” The Shell Research Institute judged.
In terms of the new housing market, based on data from multiple institutions, in 2020, the transaction area of newly-built commercial residential buildings in Beijing increased by 5% year-on-year; the transaction area of newly-built commercial residential buildings in Shanghai was about 9.178 million square meters, an increase of 23.1% year-on-year, setting a 4-year high; Guangzhou first-hand residential online signing The transaction amounted to 100,905 units, an increase of 27% year-on-year, the second highest since 2010, after 2016; the transaction of 45,384 units of newly built residential buildings in Shenzhen, an increase of 19.8% year-on-year, was a new high since 2016.
High-quality housing prices have increased significantly
Data map: sand table of the sales department.
Photo by Xue Yufei, Sino-Singapore Jingwei
Although the transaction volume of new houses and second-hand houses in the four first-tier cities has increased significantly, the overall price increase has remained stable.
According to data from Shanghai Centaline Research Institute, the average transaction price of new residential buildings in Shanghai in 2020 is 56,004 yuan per square meter, up 4% year-on-year.
The market as a whole is stable and rising, with less fluctuation under the epidemic.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, Shanghai's second-hand housing price index in November 2020 increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 5.5% year-on-year.
According to the Shell Research Institute, the average transaction price of new commercial residential buildings in Beijing in 2020 will be 48,147 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year increase of 3%, basically the same as in 2019.
Although the absolute level and growth rate of second-hand residential transactions reached the highest since 2017, the average transaction price of the city was 60,485 yuan per square meter, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, and the price remained relatively stable for three consecutive years.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Property, analyzed the client of Sino-Singapore Jingwei. On the whole, housing prices in the four first-tier cities are still stable, which is a slight increase.
However, the market performance is clearly differentiated, and local areas are hot. For example, the housing prices in the school districts of Beijing and Shanghai have increased significantly, but the suburban housing prices are not hot.
In the first half of 2020, the increase in housing prices in Shenzhen has aroused widespread concern, but the gap between the increase in the east and west is large.
Chen Hong also said: "A colleague bought a house without a school district and no subway in Shanghai Waihuan. The price has risen by 5% this year. A customer in Pudong, his house has risen by almost 30%. The luxury real estate market is more' Crazy', an owner who was about to sell a 20 million yuan mansion raised the listing price by 2 million. What he thought was that if he encountered customers who were not sensitive to prices, he could sell for an extra 500,000."
The Shell Research Institute pointed out that Beijing's second-hand housing market showed the characteristics of "increasing volume in peripheral urban areas and rising prices in central urban areas" and "resistance of high-value property prices".
Except for the 4 outlying suburbs, housing prices in 3 of the 12 urban areas have risen, namely Haidian, Xicheng and Chaoyang, while Dongcheng is basically the same, while the rest of the urban areas have fallen.
From the perspective of property price changes in different price segments, except for the average transaction price of houses above 7.5 million yuan, which increased by 1% year-on-year, the average price of houses in other price segments fell year-on-year. It can be seen that in a relatively stable market, the price of high-quality properties has increased Resistant.
According to the Research and Development Department of Guangzhou Central Plains, the average online price of second-hand housing in Guangzhou in 2020 was 28815 yuan/sqm, an increase of 7.8% year-on-year. The major increase was mainly in central urban areas. Tianhe, Haizhu, and Yuexiu increased by 15.5% and 9.0% respectively. , 8.7%.
As the benefits of Zengcheng's planning have been digested in advance, and the new policies for talents in other districts have been upgraded to grab customers, the average online signing price in this district has fallen by 6.5% year-on-year.
The price of improved high-end residential buildings in Guangzhou rose significantly.
According to the Guangzhou Centaline Research and Development Department, many customers have shifted their investment focus to high-quality real estate with high value preservation capabilities, such as Zhujiang New Town, Binjiang East, Dongfeng East and other traditional high-end sectors (with high-quality educational resources, location conditions or luxury properties) , Its price year-on-year increase can basically be maintained at more than 10%.
"The transaction volume of villas, luxury houses, and high-end houses in first-tier cities is relatively good, and the demand for improvement and investment has increased. This is not only related to changes in the market structure, but also to the centralized supply of luxury houses and the liberalization of price-limiting and visa-limiting policies. Indivisible." Xie Yifeng, Dean of China Urban Real Estate Research Institute, told the Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client.
Will there be a "Xiaoyangchun"?
Data map: buildings.
Photo by Xue Yufei, Sino-Singapore Jingwei
Volume and price are interrelated. Will the volume of first-tier cities in the second half of the year have an impact on the next price trend?
Zhang Dawei believes that the increase in transaction volume in first-tier cities is a recovery after regulation. The transaction volume has only reached a high point since 2016 or 2017, not a particularly high level.
The current price increase in some areas is still driven by the school district housing, but if there are no new regulatory policies and credit policies are not significantly tightened, the market may usher in a wave of market after the Spring Festival.
Zhang Dawei also said: “The rise in housing prices in 2015 was due to the relatively loose credit policy. The price trend in the future will also depend on the loosening of credit.” Xie Yifeng believes that the real estate market in first-tier cities has stepped out of the trough of the epidemic. After a turning point period, whether to continue to rise or fall depends on the regulatory and monetary policies for a period of time in the future.
The Shell Research Institute predicts that in 2021, the growth rate of new housing transactions in first-tier cities may stabilize at 5%-10%, and the average market price will maintain growth; the increase in second-hand housing prices in Shanghai and Shenzhen will narrow, while Beijing and Guangzhou will show a moderate increase .
The above-mentioned research institute further analyzes that since the second half of 2020, the macro-monetary policy has returned to normal. This trend is expected to continue in 2021. The loose credit environment of the real estate market will bottom out. At the same time, the real estate market financial de-leverage continues to deepen, and housing finance is subject to stricter supervision. ; In 2021, the long-term real estate regulation mechanism will continue to deepen, housing price monitoring and early warning will be strengthened, and local housing prices will continue to rise sharply and will face precise control; in 2020, many cities will increase the supply of residential land, such as Shenzhen and Guangzhou. Increased by 3 times and 1 times respectively. In 2021, the supply of the new house market will increase, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the second-hand house market will be eased.
In Beijing, the new homes will be sold in 17 months at the end of 2020, and more than 60% of restricted properties are still waiting to enter the market. It is unlikely that second-hand housing prices will rise sharply in 2021.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
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