Spain The INE estimates that 2020 will end with 51,000 more deaths than in 2019 and one year less life expectancy
The
Daily Mortality Monitoring
System
(MoMo) of the Carlos III Health Institute has estimated
excess mortality in Spain
throughout 2020 at
70,703 more deaths than expected
, 63 percent of which occurred between March and May, coinciding with the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic, and the rest between July and December.
There are two periods of excess mortality detected by this system, the first between March
10 and May 9
, when 44,599 more people died than expected, which represents an excess of
66.9 percent
.
The second runs from July 20 to December 20, in which that excess
rises to 26,104 deaths
, 16.6% more, according to the latest report dated January 5.
During the first, it was higher in women (72%) than in men (67%), and it was especially concentrated in those
older than 74 years
(78%), followed by the age group 65 to 74 years (58%).
The same occurs in the second tranche: the excess was higher in them (21%) than in them (19%) and it occurred mainly among those over 74 years of age (19%).
An excess mortality that has been observed in the
17 autonomous communities
and in the age groups over 74 and between 65 and 74.
The MoMo uses all-cause mortality information that is obtained daily from 3,929 computerized civil registries of the Ministry of Justice, corresponding to 93 percent of the Spanish population and which includes all provinces.
Estimates of expected mortality
are calculated using restrictive models
of historical means based on the observed mortality of the last 10 years.
Excess mortality in summer
In addition, the Carlos III has another tool to measure the excess of mortality specific to the summer, the MoMo Calor, according to which, in the summer months, an excess mortality
of 5,206 deaths
has been registered
, of which only 1,875 are attributable to discharges temperatures.
"In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic it is reasonable to assume that the remainder of the excess mortality identified by MoMoCalor could be attributed to causes other than the excess temperature, such as direct infection by COVID-19, indirect mortality from the pandemic in its health,
social or any other nature
, as well as any other cause of death, "he says.
Deaths attributable to heat in 2020 represent an excess of 1.8%, lower than the 2% observed in 2019, 2.3% in 2016, 2.7% in 2015 and 6.1% in 2003.
56% of them occurred in the month of August.
Nine out of ten
were people over 74 years old
According to the criteria of The Trust Project
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