Gulf leaders meet in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, January 5, for a summit that raises hopes for further progress in the wake of the announcement of Riyadh's reopening of its borders with Qatar, boycotted for more than three years. by its neighbors.

In June 2017, Saudi Arabia and three allied countries - United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt - severed their ties with Doha, accusing it of supporting Islamist groups, of getting along too much with their Iranian and Turkish adversaries, and of to stir up trouble in the region.

The Qataris, who have always denied, claim to be the victim of a "blockade" and an attack on their sovereignty.

>> To read: Qatar vs Saudi Arabia: the reasons for a diplomatic break

After three and a half years of boycott and hostile media messages, Kuwait, mediating the Gulf, revealed Monday evening that Saudi Arabia, a heavyweight in the region and the world's largest oil producer, had agreed to reopen in Qatar its airspace and all of its borders.

Symbol of the ongoing rapprochement, the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, arrived Tuesday in al-Ula, in northwestern Saudi Arabia, to participate in his first GCC summit since 2017.

The leader of the gas emirate was further greeted with a hug from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on the airport tarmac, according to images on Saudi state television channel Al-Ekhbariya.

Conditions not met

The break with Qatar was accompanied by retaliatory measures: closure of borders and airspace to Qatari planes and restriction on Qatari travel, which sometimes led to the separation of mixed families.  

The quartet had formulated 13 conditions for the resumption of relations with Qatar, in particular the closure of Al-Jazeera, a television channel hated by many Arab regimes, commitments on the end of the financing of extremist groups or the closure of a base. Turkish military in Qatar.

Doha did not comply with any of these demands.

Diplomats, observers and some press reports have suggested that all of these divisive issues will not be addressed during the summit, which seems to distract from the prospect of a comprehensive resolution of the dispute anytime soon.

The rapprochement seems to start with Saudi Arabia and Qatar but "the others will join them, even if it is later," however predicts Bader al-Saif, assistant professor of history at the University of Kuwait.

"Any step towards reconciliation is better than none at all. The Gulf Cooperation Council needs a major reset and can offer a lot more than it has done," he said on Twitter.

Washington pressure

Despite unusually positive statements in recent weeks, other countries do not seem as willing as the Saudis to make concessions to Qatar.

The United Arab Emirates in particular remain particularly hostile to Doha, due to its proximity to the Islamist brotherhood of the Muslim Brotherhood.

For the moment, the reconciliation turns out to be "primarily diplomatic", estimates Tobias Borck, of the think tank Royal United Services Institute.

The United States has stepped up the pressure on all its Gulf partners to resolve the crisis with Qatar.

The goal for Washington: to further isolate Iran, as the curtain falls on Donald Trump's presidency.

Jared Kushner, his son-in-law and adviser, has been commuting to the region to seek an agreement and will attend the signing of the "breakthrough" in person on Tuesday, a US official said on Monday.

"The Trump administration will claim this as another victory for sure," said Tobias Borck, while stressing that the Gulf rivals have yet to normalize their relations.

The isolation of Qatar has paradoxically allowed the rich emirate to increase its strategy of self-sufficiency and to come closer to Iran and Turkey.

With AFP

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