About twenty departments in eastern France could be affected by an advanced curfew at 6 p.m., due to incidence rates higher than the national average.

More Covid-19 contaminations which can be explained by various factors. 

DECRYPTION

The government has decided: no new national or local confinement, but an advanced curfew at 6 p.m. in some of the territories most affected by Covid-19.

About twenty departments, such as the Ardennes, the Vosges, the Marne, the Jura the Alpes-Maritimes, or the territory of Belfort, could be affected by this new restriction measure.

France is almost cut in half and several factors explain the currently higher incidence rates in eastern France. 

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Population density and climate

First of all, Covid is a disease of large cities.

In the east of the country, there is a higher population density.

Another explanation, the most affected areas are border areas with countries hardest hit by the epidemic.

Germany, for example, close to the Grand Est or even Italy, which shares its border with, among others, the Alpes-Maritimes.

There is more trade with these regions and therefore more contamination.

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Finally, the last explanation, the climate.

There is a strong correlation of the virus with the cold and the humidity in these areas, although the scientific literature still lacks hindsight and data to confirm it.

A high incidence rate in the elderly

In these most affected regions, the deprogramming of operations resumed several days ago.

Around 63% of intensive care beds are currently occupied in the Grand Est region and nearly 90% in Bourgogne-Franche-Comté.

The authorities are particularly worried about the incidence rate, the number of contaminations per 100,000 inhabitants, among the elderly.

In these two regions, this rate is over 300 for those over 80 years old.

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The situation could get even worse in the coming days.

In an opinion published Tuesday evening, the Scientific Council affirms that "the risk of uncontrolled resumption of the epidemic is not zero", while specifying that it is necessary to wait a few days to have a real vision of the contaminations and of the circulation of the virus after this holiday season.