China tops the global box office
2020 is an eventful year ... 3 possible endings for cinema ... and "Streaming" seeks to protect its gains
The Venice Festival 2020 organized between gags and anxiety.
À EPA
The hidden enemy "Covid-19" did what the world imagined impossible, which is to close all cinemas from Tokyo in the far east to Los Angeles in the far west at the same time. Last March, we asked: "Does this mean the end of cinema as we know it?" Our expectations were closer to yes.
We have come to the end of 2020, the strangest and harshest year of the past decade, the year of the pandemic.
The "Covid-19" epidemic was able to do something that two world wars could not do, which destroyed the continents of Asia and Europe.
Yes, cinema stopped in Europe in the first half of the 20th century, but it was at the height of its creativity in North America, while Berlin was bombing and Allied soldiers were liberating the occupied European lands from the Nazis.
But the invisible enemy "Covid-19" did what the world imagined impossible, which is to close all cinemas from Tokyo in the far east to Los Angeles in the far west at the same time.
Last March, we asked: "Does this mean the end of cinema as we know it?" Our expectations were closer to yes.
Today, at the end of the year, and things are becoming clearer, there are three possible scenarios. The first and second of them say that change is coming, and the third is optimistic but unlikely.
The epidemic closed cinemas, canceled the Cannes Film Festival, and the "Venice" earthquake, which was organized on a hot plate, as for the "Toronto Film Festival", which passed unnoticed amid the second pandemic wave that struck America and Europe.
"Toronto" thought that the pandemic was a picnic and decided that masks in the halls are optional, and when he was subjected to severe criticism because of the high number of infections in the province of Ontario, he changed his decision within 24 hours, and the mask became mandatory.
The rest of the smaller festivals were organized by default, and films were released online.
Big films have postponed their screening dates until further notice, or have set them months later.
Because of this, box office revenues fell by billions of dollars and movie theaters declared bankruptcy.
The pandemic has also affected film awards organizers, who have been forced to either create them virtually or without an audience or cancel them.
The American Academy of Motion Picture Sciences - Oscar - was postponed from February 28 to April 25, 2021, and it also temporarily canceled the cinematic requirement for 2020 films, and allowed its members to watch them online using their own passwords.
Lion's share
But people's misfortunes have benefits, and when the governments of the world imposed curfews, people resorted to home entertainment, which is provided by streaming services on the Internet, headed by "Netflix", the queen of original productions and its partners, such as "Apple TV" and "Amazon Prime" that owns On only 20% of the world, while Netflix has the lion's share.
Streaming services has boomed like never before in entertainment history.
This greatly affected the decisions of the studios, which wanted to put an end to their losses. It was the historic July decision, which shortened the time period between the release of cinema and video or "streaming" from 70 days to 17.
Universal Studios also made a historic decision to release the movie "Trolls World Tour" in digital channels, ignoring the movie theaters that decided to boycott the studio's films.
And it was a right decision, as the company made $ 100 million net worth, which it did not have to share with the owners of theaters as it usually happens.
That's more than I made in five months while the movie premiered in 2017.
In late July, some lounges reopened in Europe, Asia and the United States, and Hollywood was optimistic.
Warner Studios decided to place bets on Christopher Nolan's upcoming movie "Tenet" and put it out in theaters due to pressure from the film maker himself. Disney was also encouraged to launch "Mulan" the following week.
But the winds come with what the ships do not desire, and the two films failed at the box office that operate with tight "Covid-19" restrictions, although they are the only two films shown in the summer without any competition.
This is because the largest film markets in the world (Los Angeles, New York, and China) are not fully operational.
In October, the second wave of "Covid-19" was sweeping the central and southern United States and spreading to California.
As for Europe, it was fighting the same wave that hit France, Britain, Germany and Spain, which all returned to the March closure, which continues completely in some regions, and partly in other regions to this day.
Finally, some Hollywood studios have made a decision to simultaneously launch their films between cinema and digital channels over the Internet, and the first films of this decision were "Wonder Woman."
The decision has come under harsh criticism from contracted filmmakers, such as Nolan and Patti Jenkins, who described the studio-owned "HBO Max" channel as the worst ever compared to its competitors.
The best will come
Today we are faced with three scenarios. The first was invented by "Netflix", which is the presentation of the film in the cinema and the digital platform at the same time, and this is what this platform has been doing for the past three years.
"Netflix" has severely affected the film industry and changed the rules of the game 180 degrees for the manufacture and distribution of films, for the simple reason that its model differs from Hollywood. The decision is not the box office, but the number of subscribers.
If a theater's share of a movie is two-thirds the ticket price, the production studio must achieve four times the budget or more to secure its profit.
"Netflix" does not work like this, but it constantly releases its movies, regardless of the budget, and reaps its profits from the value of subscriptions, noting that the company does not publish figures.
But the company's message through this model is: “We are constantly creating content so that your subscription is necessary.
If the film fails, then it is not a problem, because other than it is present and the best will come after it.
As for "Apple" and "Amazon", the same model is adopted, and if the films fail, they are not the only source of income, because these companies sit on mountains of money they make from their other activities.
The other bitter truth is that the model of cinema is outdated and has not changed for 40 years, specifically since the invention of video and the spread of tapes in the early 1980s.
Since that time, he depends for his profits on the period of time that the film lives in the hall, which is 70 days.
The second scenario is the failure of the cinema financially and the closing of theaters.
What is contained in this case is to buy new players theaters, and this actually happened last year when Netflix bought its first cinema.
If this happens, history repeats itself, because this was the studio system in Hollywood from the beginning of the twenties, which reached its peak in the early thirties, until the US Supreme Court placed it at the end of the 1940's and effectively stopped the early 1950's.
According to this system, all stages of film production take place in entities owned or influenced by one company.
Since "Netflix" or "Amazon", for example, funds the film and displays it on its platform, then it distributes it. If one of them owns a theater for its films, that means the actual return of the studio system after 70 years of its dissolution.
The month of August witnessed indications that the new studio system would become in place, after a judge in New York granted permission to the US Department of Justice to end legislation passed in 1948 that deprived Paramount of monopolistic practices that caused heavy losses to movie owners at the time.
Ending the legislation means that "Netflix", "Amazon", "Disney Plus" and "Any Film Studio" can own any movie house.
Pinky dreams
The third scenario depends on rosy dreams, meaning that the pandemic will end as if nothing had happened, and the water will return to its course after the global vaccination campaigns, and cinemas will open at full capacity, as was the case before 2020 once restrictions are lifted, and cinema will compensate for its losses in this case due to the enthusiasm of the masses and their return. To the dark halls as a result of their longing for it.
This scenario is very optimistic and unlikely, not pessimistic, but because "Covid-19" will not disappear with the click of a button and will not recede easily. Yes, it will end someday because all viruses have a beginning and an end.
In fact, the Corona virus will last for another year, and the world will get used to it, and it will become a communicable disease.
Cinemas will not endure another year of restrictions, unless governments intervene and save them with financial firmness. However, it is true that cinema after the "Covid-19" era will remain something of luxury compared to other economic sectors.
The other reality is that the "Streaming" platforms will never exaggerate their gains in the year of the epidemic and will build on them. Given the two mentioned entertainment world models, the future is with "Streaming", and future generations will not have mercy on the traditional model (cinema), as they watch movies on the smart screen of various sizes ( TV - Smartphone - Tablet), not about the dark hall, nor about the feeling of watching with dark strangers.
The blame lies on the model of cinema that has not developed in 40 years, and has remained dependent on only one factor to reap its profits, and only one type of film (Blockbuster) has made all its resources available to him, and he did not take into account the circumstances of such a pandemic that it may never recover from it.
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Facts about 2020 that didn't happen in cinema history:
- The epidemic year recorded a precedent, which is the Chinese box office surpassed its American counterpart, to become the largest film market for this year, due to the “Covid-19” invasion of North America and the closure of its theaters.
Given the small impact of the epidemic on the Asian film market, half of the highest-earning films list is occupied by Chinese and Japanese productions.
This is happening for the first time in the history of cinema, which used to dominate Hollywood and topped the list of highest-grossing films.
- "Sonic the Hedgehog" broke the record for "Pokemon: Detective Pikachu" last year, as the highest-grossing movie in terms of video games.
"Sonic the Hedgehog" is also the highest-grossing Super Hero movie of 2020, ending the dominance of the Marvel Cinematic World in this category, which spanned from 2010 to 2019.
- For the first time in the history of box office revenues, two non-American films - Japanese Demon Slayer and Chinese Jiang Ziya - have come out of the "Animation" category, to become the highest-grossing films of this category.
It is the first time that a Japanese movie has hit the Asian box office since 1987.
Highest movie revenue in million in 2020
The Eight Hundred - 461
Bad Boys For Life - 426
My People, My Homeland - 422
Tenet - 362
Demon Slayer - 340
Sonic the Hedgehog - 320
Dolittle - 250
Jiang Ziya - 243
Birds of Prey - 201
Postponed movies
2021 April - No Time To Die
2021 January - 2 Peter Rabbit
2021 April - 2 A Quiet Place
2021 May - Black Widow
2021 Apr - 9 Fast and Furious
• The epidemic closed the halls, canceled the Cannes Film Festival, and the "Venice" earthquake, which was organized on a hot plate.
• Cinema after the "Covid-19" era will remain something of luxury, compared to other sectors.
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