(Year-end Feature) With a solid foundation and rigid demand, the industry is optimistic about the Hong Kong property market next year

　　China News Service, Hong Kong, December 25 (Reporter Shi Bingyun) The Hong Kong property market has undergone multiple tests this year, but property prices have only recorded a slight decline, demonstrating the solid foundation of the Hong Kong property market.

　　Despite four consecutive waves of new coronary pneumonia, it does not seem to have caused a serious impact on Hong Kong's overall residential market.

According to the data of the Land Registry of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government, as of December 16, 2020, the value of registered second-hand transactions was 53,944 and 506.14 billion yuan respectively.

Some Hong Kong real estate agents predict that the estimated transaction volume for the whole year will drop by 1% year-on-year, while the total registered value will drop by 3%.

　　Liao Weiqiang, President of Ricacorp Real Estate, said in an interview with a reporter from China News Agency that in 2020, Hong Kong's property market will encounter three major unfavorable factors, including social movement troubles at the beginning of the year, continuous Sino-US trade frictions, and repeated epidemics.

However, the main reason why property prices did not see a major "diving" this year is that the strong local demand and the low interest rate environment resulted in only a slight decline of about 1% in property prices throughout the year.

　　Throughout the whole year of Hong Kong's property market and the heat of trading, there has been a slight shock following the "recurring cycle" of the epidemic.

According to data from the Land Registry of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government, there were small climaxes in residential transactions in June and November, with 6,987 and 6,070 transactions recorded respectively. These two months were the time when the epidemic in Hong Kong had subsided.

　　Associate Professor Zhuang Tailiang of the Department of Economics at the Chinese University of Hong Kong pointed out that compared with the sharp drop in housing prices in Hong Kong during the SARS period, the reason for the absence of a sharp drop in the epidemic this year is that the current property market has multiple "hot tricks" that increase the cost of homeowners selling properties.

At the same time, "the main reasons affecting the trading volume are the restrictions on gatherings under the epidemic, and the reduction in meetings and travel, which has led to a decline in the number of transactions."

　　According to estimates by Hong Kong real estate agent Centaline Property, the value of the first-hand property market in Hong Kong is about 14,900 transactions and 172 billion yuan, the number of transactions will hit a 7-year low.

The second-hand market is going against the trend. It is expected that there will be about 41,400 transactions and 356 billion yuan in the whole year. The transaction volume will hit a 6-year high and the transaction volume will hit a 10-year high.

　　"Overall, it should be said that this year's property market is very good." Liao Weiqiang said that since Hong Kong’s Chief Executive Carrie Lam launched the new "Mortgage Insurance Plan" in October last year, the mortgage rate for first-time home buyers has been relaxed, which has encouraged citizens to enter the market. This year's second-hand market transaction volume rose 14% year-on-year.

On the other hand, the epidemic has slowed down the sales of new properties, causing buyers to reinvest in second-hand properties.

In the first four months of the severe epidemic, the monthly registered transaction volume of first-hand real estate was less than 1,000, and in March it was less than 600.

Liao Weiqiang predicts that if the epidemic eases next year, the developer will launch more new projects.

　　Zhuang Tailiang said that overall, the economic situation has begun to rebound, and Hong Kong's GDP decline in the third quarter has narrowed compared with the second quarter.

Even though the unemployment rate is relatively high now, industries with high unemployment rates, such as the catering industry, are not the main buyers.

"The main force is still high-paying practitioners in the financial industry, and the unemployment rate in these industries is not high."

　　According to data from the Statistics Department of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government, the estimated value of Hong Kong's GDP for the third quarter of 2020 fell 3.4% in real terms year-on-year, and fell 9.0% in the second quarter.

After seasonal adjustments, Hong Kong’s GDP in the third quarter rose by 3.0% from the previous quarter, ending the five consecutive quarters of contraction.

　　Liu Weiqiang predicts that the land supply for private housing in Hong Kong will remain very limited in the future, and the rigid demand for local housing will continue.

"The worst is over. With the gradual elimination of the negative factors of the epidemic, if good news such as next year's vaccination and customs clearance with the Mainland are stimulated, Hong Kong's house prices will rise or fall, about 10%."

　　According to Zhuang Tailiang's analysis, the main influencing factors of Hong Kong's property market next year are the United States-led quantitative easing policy, the global economic rebound, and Hong Kong's local marriage and children due to the epidemic this year. The demand for houses will be gradually released and reflected next year , As soon as the first quarter of next year can see a significant rebound.

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