The incidence of the epidemic has been on the rise in the Paris region since last week -

SYSPEO / SIPA

  • The incidence rate in Ile-de-France is now around 117 cases per 100,000 inhabitant, a figure that has been rising since last week.

  • The hospitalization rate - classic or in intensive care - continues to decline.

  • The number of tests increased significantly last week and could rise further as the holiday season approaches.

Looking at the curves, you sometimes have the feeling of seeing the course of a roller coaster.

Like them, the population holds their breath when they take off, breathe when they come down while wondering what to expect next.

After registering a sharp drop throughout the month of November, the incidence of the coronavirus epidemic - that is to say the number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants - has recorded a significant increase in recent days in Ile-de -France.

While there were, according to the Regional Health Agency (ARS), nearly 105 cases per 100,000 inhabitants last week, this figure is now around 117 cases.

The President of the Republic himself can attest to this ...

"For the moment, this increase which affects all the departments of the region does not have repercussions on the hospital, conventional hospitalizations and intensive care continue to decrease", states one within the ARS, while affirming to follow the situation attentively, in particular with the approach of the end of year holidays, period during which part of the staff will be on leave.

Now, nearly half of the intensive care beds in Ile-de-France are occupied by patients with a severe form of Covid, this is half less than last month.

An increase difficult to source

Difficult to analyze precisely the origin of this increase.

The opening of shops on November 28 may have played a role in increasing interactions but cannot alone explain this rebound.

The incidence began to stagnate and then to rise again from the first week of December, but it usually takes between 10 days and two weeks to see the effects of a measure in the population due to the incubation time of the disease.

The "r0", that is to say the reproduction rate of the virus, an indicator particularly followed by the authorities, had also started to rise on November 24.

"We have seen a certain relaxation of the population," noted last Tuesday during an interview on LCI the Minister of Health, Olivier Véran.

And to clarify: "The French made enormous efforts during the two confinements.

The humidity and cooling can also be the cause of these figures which are still very high.

"While no scientific link has been established between the spread of Covid-19 and the weather, many researchers have noticed that the strength of the epidemic was often correlated with bad weather.

"It is perhaps not so much the weather that influences the virus as on the behavior", specified in early December to the

20 Minutes

Michèle Legeas, teacher at the School of Advanced Studies in Public Health, specialist in analysis and management of health risk situations.

The cooler the temperatures, the more we tend to find ourselves in heated interiors that are less ventilated.

However, the first half of November was relatively mild in the region before cooling off.

Worry before the holidays

But this increase could also be explained - at least partially - mechanically: last week, nearly 270,000 tests were carried out in the region, nearly 40,000 more than the previous week,

the ARS

told

20 Minutes

.

And as the holiday season approaches, that number could increase even further.

However, the more we test, the more the incidence increases.

Our file on the coronavirus

The positivity rate of the tests, it remains relatively stable, even slightly down in several departments like Paris, which would suggest that the epidemic is not increasing as quickly as the incidence rate.

However, with the approach of Christmas and New Year these figures show how fragile the situation in Ile-de-France remains.

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