The seventh "popularity": after China emerges from the demographic dividend period
China News Weekly reporter/Zhao Yiwei
Published in the 974th issue of China News Weekly on November 30, 2020
The registration of China's seventh national census is nearing completion.
As the world's most populous country and the world's second largest economy, China's decennial census is a major national situation and national strength survey, which will find out the latest situation in China's population, structure, and distribution.
The results of the census will serve as the basis for formulating and improving policies and measures on income, consumption, education, employment, old-age care, medical care, and social security in the future, as well as the distribution of education and medical institutions, the construction of child and elderly service facilities, and the distribution of industrial and commercial service outlets. , Urban and rural road construction, etc. provide a basis for decision-making.
According to the planned timetable, the census is divided into three stages. October 2019 to October 2020 is the preparation stage, November 1 to December 10, 2020 is the census registration stage, and it will enter April 2021. A two-year data aggregation and release phase.
For the first time, electronic registration was adopted in the census.
The data collection method has changed from paper registration in the past to electronic registration through smart devices such as mobile phones and PADs. Data collection can be completed quickly and uploaded in real time.
At the same time, relying on core technologies such as cloud computing, big data, and security will effectively eliminate possible human interference in the middle of the census.
"This will be the most accurate census in China in the past 30 years, and all sectors of society have very high expectations." Yang Ge, a researcher at the Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told China News Weekly, "On the one hand, Electronic methods can maximize the accuracy of aggregated check and location data; on the other hand, since the birth policy has fully liberalized the second child, the past due to policy factors and subjective factors caused by Great improvement."
Regarding the data results of the census, Peng Xizhe, a professor at the Population Research Institute of Fudan University, told China News Weekly that indicators such as total population, population structure, population aging process, population flow changes, etc., will need to be focused on research content .
"The results of this census will test the effectiveness of China's population policy over the past ten years, and provide important population data information support for the scientific formulation of the "14th Five-Year Plan"." Peng Xizhe said, "The current long-term trend of China's population aging is irreversible. At the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee, actively responding to the problem of population aging has been elevated to a national strategy. The data of the Seventh Census will have a profound impact on the formulation of many major policies for the national economy and people’s livelihood in the future.
Negative population growth will come sooner
Before the results of the seventh census were announced, the total population of China is approaching zero growth and will usher in a negative growth has become the consensus of the academic circles.
According to the forecast of the China Population and Development Research Center, a unit directly under the National Health Commission, China's total population will begin to enter negative growth after 2027.
The China Population and Development Research Center pointed out in the report that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's natural population growth rate has dropped to an average annual rate of 1.76‰, and the total population has grown at a low rate of inertia, with an average annual increase of 2.46 million.
According to the forecast of the development trend, the next ten years will experience a major transition from growth to decline and enter the stage of negative population growth.
The natural population growth rate is estimated to be -2.18‰ in 2035 and -5.65‰ in 2050.
From the perspective of total population, China's total population in 2019 is 1.4005 million, and it is expected to reach a peak of 1.417 billion in 2027, and it will start to decline thereafter, falling to 1.403 billion in 2035 and 1.321 billion in 2050.
Miao Wei, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and former minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, pointed out that in recent years, China has stepped out of the demographic dividend period and the aging problem has become increasingly prominent. The resulting economic growth, population employment and other issues are worthwhile. highly valued.
In 2019, there were 14.65 million newborn babies in China, and the birth rate had dropped to 10.48‰, and it is expected to further drop to less than 11 million in 2030.
After the full release of the second child, it did not trigger a baby boom.
"China is facing a completely different demographic trend from the past." Yang Ge told China News Weekly, "It has become a reality that the total population is approaching zero growth. What everyone cares about is which year China will usher in negative population growth. The year’s expectation is 2030, this year's expectation is 2027, but it may come sooner than expected.”
In fact, the current population situation in China is not only facing a crisis of total population that is about to peak and will shrink sharply in the long term, but also a structural crisis of increasing declining birthrate and aging population and gender imbalance.
With regard to the gender structure of the population, the current gender ratio in China has been seriously unbalanced.
Beginning in 1982, the sex ratio at birth (female=100) has seriously deviated from the normal level of 103-107, exceeding 110 in 1990, approaching 118 in 2000, and then exceeding 120 at one time, and it is still around 110.
Post-00 males are nearly 13 million more than females, and post-90s males are nearly 9 million more than females.
As of 2015, there were more than 20 million unmarried men aged 30 and above in China, while only about 6 million unmarried women of the same age.
It is estimated that by 2040, there will be more than 40 million unmarried men aged 30 and above.
"The'Seven Census' data will test the previous prediction of '30 million male bachelors in China'." Yang Ge said, "From the perspective of sex ratio data, China's sex ratio at birth has always been high, and the problems accumulated before may cause problems. It will happen in the near future. Many social problems such as marriage squeeze, sex trade, and sex crime may intensify."
In terms of the structure of the floating population, since 2010, the rate of net population inflows in economically developed areas has slowed, especially in first-tier cities.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2019, the national population separated from households (that is, the population whose place of residence and household registration are not in the same township and street and has left household registration for more than half a year) 280 million people, a decrease of 6.13 million from the end of the previous year; The population is 236 million, a decrease of 5.15 million from the end of the previous year.
"After reaching a peak of 253 million in 2014, the floating population across the country began to shrink at a rate of 3 to 5 million per year. This year, due to the epidemic, the floating population will further decrease." Yang Ge said, "The reduction in the size of the floating population has much The reasons include the decrease in the new labor force of the rural population, changes in the regional economic development pattern and industrial distribution, etc. The data of the'Seven Census' will more specifically show the direction and distribution of the flow of the floating population."
In terms of the labor structure, the educational level of China's new labor force is improving significantly, but it is also facing a decline in the proportion and scale of the labor force.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2019, China's working-age population of 16 to 59 years old was 896.4 million, accounting for 64.0% of the total population; the population of 60 years and over was 253.88 million, accounting for 18.1% of the total population.
According to the forecast of the China Population and Development Research Center, starting from the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's elderly population of 60 years and over will usher in a period of rapid growth.
During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the average annual growth rate was 11.5 million, which was much higher than the average annual growth rate of 7.4 million in the 13th Five-Year Plan.
It is estimated that by 2048, China's elderly population will exceed 500 million.
It is estimated that around 2050, the proportion of the elderly in the total population will reach nearly 40%.
Yang Ge pointed out that the population born at the peak of China's population during the 1950s and 1960s will enter old age in recent years.
Due to the large number of these people, the number of the elderly population in recent years will suddenly accelerate in terms of total number and proportion, which will further accelerate the process of social aging.
"The long-term trend of China's population aging process is irreversible. The'Seven Census' data will further show future changes in the working-age population. At present, the trend of changes will have a certain negative impact on economic development." Peng Xizhe pointed out to China News Weekly "The'Seven Census' data will provide an important reference for the future adjustment of the employment policy direction. How many new jobs will China create? Can the increase in the quality of the labor force offset the decrease in the number? These are still tests."
Delay in retirement is a foregone conclusion
According to the UN's aging society standards, China has already entered an aging society, and the degree is further deepening.
This means that China's dependency ratio (referring to the ratio of the non-working-age population to the working-age population among the population) will gradually increase, and the labor burden will become heavier and heavier.
If the dependency ratio exceeds a certain range, the country’s economic development will be severely hampered.
One of the effective ways to control the dependency ratio is to delay the retirement age.
"Under the background of the deepening of China's aging degree, the burden of old-age care in society is increasing, and there will be more challenges of insufficient social security fund balances in the future." Yang Ge pointed out, "At present, there are already some areas with serious population outflows. In recent years, the state has alleviated the problem of insufficient social security fund balances through coordinated adjustments and expansion of insurance coverage. However, it is undeniable that as China’s aging process accelerates, social pensions are still facing serious challenge."
"It is imperative to extend the retirement age, and a national consensus and timetable need to be established." Peng Xizhe said, "At present, the state has designed a variety of delayed retirement plans for further study. Each plan is based on China's social and economic development and industrial economy. The goal of development is to ease the pressure on employment and an aging society."
On November 3, the "Recommendations of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-term Goals for 2035" (hereinafter referred to as the "Recommendations") clearly stated that "the implementation of a gradual delay in statutory retirement age".
The word "implementation" signifies that the delayed retirement will become a reality from the previous research level.
The current retirement age framework in China began with the Labor Insurance Regulations of the People’s Republic of China promulgated on February 23, 1951. The retirement ages of men and women are different.
Men must be at least 60 years old, female officials must be at least 55 years old, and female workers must be at least 50 years old.
Men who are engaged in underground, high temperature, high altitude, particularly heavy manual labor or other work harmful to their health shall retire at 55 years old.
"In formulating this retirement age framework, the average life expectancy in China was less than 50 years old, and the overall education level was also low." Peng Xizhe pointed out to China News Weekly, "But now the education level and labor force of China’s new labor force Quality has improved significantly. Due to the lengthening of years of education, young people’s age at work is ten years later than in the past. Mental work has further extended the working age. At the same time, with the economic development and the improvement of medical standards, Chinese people will retire after retirement. The average life expectancy has also been extended by ten years."
In fact, delayed retirement was put on the agenda as early as June 2012.
The "Outline of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Social Security" formulated by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments proposes to "study the policy of flexibly delaying pension age."
The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security also put forward the idea of "walking slowly in small steps", intending to adopt differentiated strategies for the demands of different groups.
However, due to various reasons, the retirement plan has been delayed for more than eight years.
“The reason why the delayed retirement plan has not been launched is mainly because of too much resistance from all parties. In particular, the people do not understand delayed retirement and there are some resistances.” Peng Xizhe said, “From the perspective of family reality, after extending retirement, The family division of labor arrangements will also change accordingly. In the past, the situation of parents helping their children with children after retirement will change."
Simultaneously with the aging problem, there are also changes in social family forms.
According to the "Report on China's Family Development" issued by the National Health and Family Planning Commission, before the 1950s, the family size basically remained at 5.3 persons per household.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, between 2002 and 2017, the proportion of households with one person increased from 7.7% to 15.6%, households with two persons increased from 18.4% to 27.2%, and households with 3-6 persons decreased from 71.4%. To 55.1%.
The family structure has become smaller and more diversified. The proportion of elderly people living alone, single-parent families, and DINK families has increased, and nuclear families and direct families have become the main family forms.
"The question of'how many people in the family' in the census actually reflects the changes in the social family form and living environment." Peng Xizhe said, "This can reflect the ability of each family's children to support the elderly in the future, as well as the living and living of the elderly. Environment. This is also related to the future direction of the formulation of family support policies and pension service policies."
"From the perspective of the international population situation, the speed at which countries around the world are entering population aging, but the long-term trend of population aging is similar." Peng Xizhe pointed out, "At present, developed countries are basically in a state of zero population growth-negative growth, and they are gradually entering the depths. During the aging stage, some countries are adjusting their long-term population decline through immigration. As a country with a large population, China may become the country with the largest number of elderly people in the world, and the situation of social aging and elderly care is very severe."
China News Weekly, Issue 44, 2020
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