Can New Years Eve cause a third wave of Covid-19?

Will there be a third wave of the Covid-19 epidemic after the New Year celebrations?

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• During his televised address on Tuesday evening, Emmanuel Macron said that the French could celebrate Christmas and the New Year with family and friends.

• Good news for the population, but which arouses among doctors the fear of a third wave.

• A fear shared up to the top of Europe.

We will be able to celebrate Christmas and the New Year.

Emmanuel Macron announced it on Tuesday during his speech: from this Saturday, France will begin to relax its confinement.

The businesses will reopen.

And from December 15, confinement as we know it today will be replaced by a night curfew from 9 p.m. to 7 a.m., at least until the end of January.

A curfew which will however be lifted on Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve.

"We will be able to move freely on the evenings of December 24 and 31 to share these moments with the family", thus assured the Head of State.

After weeks of uncertainties, Emmanuel Macron therefore made the choice to allow the French to celebrate these holidays with their loved ones.

What to rejoice all those and those who feared not to find family and friends for these festivities.

What also arouse the fear of a third epidemic wave of Covid-19 from the beginning of the year 2021. After Christmas therefore.

But also and especially after New Year's Eve.

"The 31st, this is where the virus will circulate more"

"Me, what scares me is the New Year's Eve of 31 [December], without a curfew", reacted Wednesday on France 5 Rémi Salomon, president of the medical commission of the AP-HP.

In practice, he fears that “there are quite a few people in each other's homes.

We drink a little alcohol, we don't have a mask.

The 31st, this is where the virus will circulate the most ", he fears, recalling that the coronavirus" is diabolical: it can be transmitted without knowing it, without having any symptoms ".

A concern in particular about young adults, who are particularly concerned by asymptomatic forms of Covid-19, and who could be contaminated en masse on the occasion of an alcoholic New Year's Eve.

A fear visibly shared by the head of government, Jean Castex.

"The first thing we have in front of us are the awakenings, which are Covid factories," said the Prime Minister.

We cannot lower our guard, ”he insisted on Thursday, while he detailed the terms of the relaxation of confinement.

“Our goal is to allow a step-by-step return to a more normal life, to allow you to spend the end of the year holidays with your loved ones while limiting the risks of an epidemic resumption,” he declared.

And if "the curfew will be lifted by way of exception on December 24 and 31 in order to find your loved ones, that does not mean that we will be able to celebrate Christmas and the New Year as in previous years", underlined the Prime Minister.

Learn from this summer

“The scientific literature and our own experience, particularly the summer holidays, have shown that these festive and friendly gatherings, where we lower our guard, where we wear less masks, are particularly risky.

It is therefore imperative that you limit the number of people at the table and avoid gatherings ”.

For Dr Jean-Louis Bensoussan, general practitioner and member of the MG France union, “it is normal to fear a wave of contamination after a period of slackening such as that represented by the end of year celebrations.

We experienced this in July and August, the barrier measures - and first of all physical distancing - were much less respected, and inevitably, we observed an outbreak of contaminations in September, which led to the second wave and re-containment.

It is therefore normal that the head of government puts forward the risks.

Because it's obvious that on New Year's Eve, they are important: there are more of us, so we're going to want to kiss each other to wish each other a Happy New Year ”.

The general practitioner is thus preparing to "renew the advice, and to remind that we will be able to celebrate the end of year holidays, but not as it was possible to do in other years".

The objective is obviously to avoid a new outbreak of the epidemic immediately after the holidays.

"I hope that the month of December will not result in an increase in the circulation of the virus," said Rémi Salomon.

And "I hope that there will be no third wave, because it would be a disaster for everyone, in particular for the hospital".

And this risk of a third post-holiday epidemic wave, the President of the European Commission also sees coming.

"We must learn the lessons of the summer, not to repeat the same mistakes and not to relax too quickly [the confinement]", urged Ursula von der Leyen on Wednesday before the European Parliament.

The head of the European executive warns: "to release too quickly and too widely, it is the risk of a third wave after Christmas", recognizing that these holidays would be this year "different" and "more gloomy" than at the habit.

The head of Europe warns against a too rapid relaxation

At a time when France, Germany or Spain are announcing an easing of restrictions as the holidays approach, Europe is monitoring the pandemic like milk on fire.

In its latest bulletin published earlier this week, the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) considers the situation "seriously worrying" for the majority of EU states, including France and Germany.

Because “insofar as the president said that there would be no curfew on the nights of December 24 and 31, that means that we are leaving people a little more free.

It was expected by the general public but it is also double-edged, notes Dr Bensoussan.

If it is indeed necessary to manage to live these festivals almost normally, it must be kept in mind that they will not be able to take place as usual.

And we must not neglect barrier gestures.

This means that you have to wear the mask, including with your family and close friends, and even - and especially - during the holidays ”.

Aware of the risk of an epidemic resumption in France, Jean Castex assured this Thursday that the government would shortly communicate its specific health recommendations for the end of the year celebrations

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