Nagorno-Karabakh: a humiliating defeat for the Armenian soldiers?
Audio 02:51
Armenian soldiers march on the road near the border between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia, Sunday, November 8, 2020. AP Photo
By: Bruno Daroux Follow
6 min
A ceasefire agreement in Nagorno-Karabakh was signed on the night of Monday to Tuesday between Armenia and Azerbaijan under the aegis of Russia.
Does this ceasefire amount to a humiliating defeat for Armenian soldiers?
Publicity
It is precisely this development of the military situation on the ground, to the benefit of Azerbaijan, and to the detriment of Armenia, which this time allowed Moscow to impose an end to the fighting after three unsuccessful attempts.
This cessation of the fighting, which freezes the positions acquired by the belligerents on the day the text was signed, was a real cold shower for many Armenians, no doubt fooled by rather optimistic statements from the authorities in Yerevan.
Astonishment, then, then anger: the Armenian demonstrators reproach their Prime Minister Nikol Pachinian for having deceived them.
Pachinian explains that he has resolved to sign the ceasefire to stop the Azerbaijani offensive and still keep part of Nagorno-Karabakh under Armenian influence.
He also wishes to maintain the link with Armenia, through the Lachin corridor, a 5 km strip of land whose security will be guaranteed by Russia.
The Azerbaijani offensive worked
President Aliev's soldiers, aided by Syrian jihadists sent by Turkey, have recovered several districts previously controlled by the Armenians, around the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave but also in the province itself, to the south and to the south. North.
And symbolically, the historic capital of the enclave, the city of Chouchi, only 15 kilometers from the provincial capital of Stepanakaert, is also under their control.
It is therefore a great victory for President Aliev.
It is also a stinging setback for Nikol Pachinian.
Coming to power in 2018 following a peaceful revolution in enthusiasm, he found himself scolded by part of the Armenian population.
This Prime Minister, who wanted to be more independent vis-à-vis Moscow, sees his political future compromised.
And some suspect Vladimir Putin of having done everything so that the defeat of Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh leads to the fall of Mr. Pachinian, to put back in the saddle in Yerevan the old pro-Russian guard ousted from power in 2018.
Russia, and also Turkey, appear to be the big winners
This ceasefire strengthens Moscow's role as mediator in the South Caucasus even if it is a simple end to the fighting, and not a peace agreement.
On the other hand, the statute of Nagorno-Karabakh and the conditions for the return of Armenian refugees to their homes have not been ratified.
Everything is frozen this time for the benefit of Baku.
As for Turkey, it is not mentioned directly in the cease-fire agreement, but it appears to be the other winner of this conflict.
Its military and political support in Baku undoubtedly facilitated Azerbaijan's victory and enshrined its rise in power in the South Caucasus.
So there are two winners.
This underlines by contrast the erasure of the United States and Europe in this region.
The Minsk group, made up of Russia, the United States and France, has been particularly ineffective in this crisis.
Newsletter
Receive all international news directly in your mailbox
I subscribe
Follow all the international news by downloading the RFI application
google-play-badge_FR
Armenia
Azerbaijan
On the same subject
Reportage
End of the war in Nagorno-Karabakh: the inhabitants of the region between uncertainty and anger
Nagorno-Karabakh agreement: political crisis continues in Armenia
Reportage
Armenians returning to Nagorno-Karabakh to empty their homes with the ceasefire