The Iranians were eagerly awaiting the results of the US presidential election on November 3.

They were not disappointed.

After four years of the Trump administration's "maximum pressure" policy vis-à-vis Iran, Joe Biden's victory could pave the way for calmer diplomatic relations.

It makes it possible to consider easing American sanctions against Tehran.

The Democrat, who began the transition while Donald Trump still refuses to acknowledge his defeat, had already indicated his intention to embark on a "credible path to return to diplomacy" with Tehran if he took the presidency.

He also raised the possibility of returning to the agreement concluded in 2015 under the presidency of Barack Obama, of which he was the vice-president.

In Iran, many believe that Joe Biden's victory will have consequences for the future of their country, which is preparing to choose a new president next May.

The current holder of the post, the Iranian Hassan Rouhani, elected twice in 2013 and 2017, will have to leave his place.

The return of a Democrat to the White House could benefit the moderate Iranian camp, openly in favor of a dialogue with the United States. 

“The timing is tight”, notes Thierry Coville, researcher at Iris.

“The Iranian election takes place in May and Joe Biden will only be invested in January if all goes well”.

A short lapse of time that makes it unlikely, before the ballot, a reinstatement of the agreement on Iranian nuclear power, from which Donald Trump came out in May 2018. “But if the United States and Iran start, would it be that to negotiate, Iranian voters will see the possibility of an agreement.

This hope could influence the vote and strengthen the moderate camp, official supporter of an agreement ”, analyzes the specialist of Iran.

"An opportunity to right the mistakes of the past"

Since the reinstatement of sanctions by Washington, the country has been hit by a severe economic crisis, aggravated by the Covid-19 pandemic, of which Iran is one of the main victims in the Middle East with more than 37,000 officially recorded deaths.

The moderate camp, which had bet on a revival of the economy and dialogue with the United States, has lost its legitimacy with the population. 

Also, the result of the American ballot could however "attenuate the negative opinion towards Rohani", estimated in the Iranian press one of the figures of the reformers, the former deputy Mahmoud Sadeghi.

Other observers also hope that the election of Joe Biden will at least have an effect on the participation in the presidential election of May 2021.

The Democrat's victory has already been hailed by Hassan Rouhani, who said the change in leadership would be "an opportunity for the next US government to right the mistakes of the past", while his foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, tweeted: "The world is watching if the new leaders will (...) accept multilateralism, cooperation and respect for the law".

The American people have spoken.



And the world is watching whether the new leaders will abandon disastrous lawless bullying of outgoing regime — and accept multilateralism, cooperation & respect for law.



Deeds matter most



Iran's record: dignity, interest & responsible diplomacy.

- Javad Zarif (@JZarif) November 8, 2020

Mistrust and enthusiasm in Tehran

In the aftermath of the results giving Joe Biden the winner, Tehran stressed that a potential return of Washington to the nuclear treaty should however be accompanied by compensation for the damage caused and a "guarantee" that a withdrawal would not happen again. not.

This is already what Mohammad Javad Zarif had said in a previous tweet sent long before the victory of Joe Biden.

“The Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs speaks with the agreement of the Supreme Guide, which means that Ali Khamenei would not be against an agreement, but not without serious compensation”, analyzes Thierry Coville.

Officially, the Supreme Guide had all the same made a point of recalling even before the result of the election that the "enmity" with the United States would continue, regardless of the future tenant of the White House.

But the positions of those close to Ali Khamenei are far from uniform.

Even the latter repeat that all American leaders are basically the same, signs of enthusiasm have been felt, including on the camp of the Iranian radicals.

For example, the Iranian press reports that a former interior minister, Mostafa Pourmohammadi, called Trump's defeat "divine help" to his country.

No matter who wins the # USElections2020, it won't affect our policy toward the US.

Some people talk about what will happen if this or that one is elected.

Yes, certain events may happen but they don't concern us.

Our policy is calculated and clear.

- Khamenei.ir (@khamenei_ir) November 3, 2020

Return of the Iranians to the negotiating table

The task promises to be difficult for the future diplomatic team of Joe Biden.

The United States is going to have to regain the broken trust of the toughest members of the Iranian regime, especially the Revolutionary Guards.

However, the latter do not forgive the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani at the beginning of the year by an American raid in Iraq. 

“As a first step, one of the possible scenarios for the future American administration would be to authorize the purchase of Iranian oil and the sale of drugs to fight against Covid-19 to Iran.

I can hardly see Tehran refusing, the economic situation being catastrophic in the country ”, explains Thierry Coville.

This could eventually convince Tehran to return to the negotiating table.

“Not to mention that part of the Obama team, including personalities from the State Department who negotiated the 2015 agreement, will return to the helm.

They are supporters of a policy 'by step' with Iran ”, continues the researcher. 

Some media in Iran have openly expressed hope that a figure like John Kerry, who was the US foreign minister from 2013 to 2017 and finalized the signing of the nuclear deal with Mohammad Javad Zarif, can now serve as Joe Biden's National Security Advisor.

The possibility of a whole new deal

The fact remains that the four years of the Trump presidency have passed through this and the situation has changed significantly.

Iran has freed itself from most of its obligations under the Vienna agreement with a stockpile of enriched uranium today almost eight times the authorized limit.

On the ballistic front, the UN embargo on sales of conventional arms to Iran has also expired.

On the domestic political level, Joe Biden will have to justify a possible easing of sanctions to American opinion, the fringe most hostile to Iran within his own party and especially in the face of a Congress probably still dominated by Republicans .  

Under these conditions, a second scenario could be considered, that of a new, broader agreement - nuclear and ballistic.

The United States could use the weak economic situation in which Iran finds itself to force this agreement on it.

While the tone of the US administration towards Tehran is set to change in 2021, Washington's old goal of countering Iranian influence in the Middle East and denuclearizing the country should remain a priority.

With AFP

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