As of October 12, 86 municipalities of Haute-Garonne have moved into enhanced alert zones.

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Fred Scheiber / SIPA

  • The Toulouse virology laboratory has just published a study which details the impact of each measure taken in Toulouse on the curve of coronavirus infections.

  • That of the compulsory mask from August 5 has a significant impact, as does the passage in the reinforced alert zone and the closing of bars.

  • This study makes it possible to highlight the role of each measure, and to anticipate future peaks of infection for the intensive care units.

"The mask is useless", "bars are a minority place of circulation of the virus" or even "the virus does not go to bed at 9 pm".

Opponents of the restriction measures put in place to limit the circulation of the coronavirus, whether it be the curfew or the closure of certain establishments, have often highlighted the limited impact they could have.

A scientific study conducted by the Toulouse University Hospital, and published in

Science Direct

, on the contrary proves the effectiveness of some of them in the spread of the coronavirus within the population.

Chloé Dimeglio, biostatiscian in the Toulouse University Hospital virology laboratory, has just demonstrated through her mathematical models that if these restrictions had not been taken, the intensive care units of the Pink City would already be in tension.

Decrease in peak infections

During the first wave, she was able to estimate that the confinement had prevented the death of 100,000 people.

This time it looked at the impact of municipal and prefectural decrees on the greater Toulouse area, ie around 1 million people.

And beyond the data predicted by her statistics, the researcher was able to integrate real-time data on the circulation of the coronavirus, and thus be more precise.

Evolution of the SARS-Cov2 epidemic according to the restriction measures taken in Toulouse.

- Chloé Dimeglio / Toulouse University Hospital

“We realize that by putting the constraint of the obligatory mask on the banks of the Garonne and certain very frequented places of Toulouse from August 5, we are constraining the circulation of the virus quite a bit.

At the end of the summer season, we were on a constraint applied to the circulation of the virus of about 18%, which is not huge, with the wearing of the compulsory mask in certain areas of Toulouse, we are moving to a constraint 25%, ”explains Chloé Diméglio.

Behind these percentages hides above all a trend with regard to the peak of infections, a very important figure for hospital services and the saturation in particular of intensive care units.

The strong impact of the enhanced alert zone

“At the end of the summer season, without new measures, it would have been roughly around November 11, with 14,000 new cases per day.

With the restriction of the mask, we flatten the curve, we go to 10,000 new cases per day on December 2.

Not only do we reduce the intensity of the peak, but we shift it a little in time, which potentially allows us to wait for a vaccine, ”continues the researcher.

But the mask in certain sectors was a first step, before its generalization on August 21.

A measure that had less impact than another, more decried by the economic and political circles of the Pink City, that of the transition to a heightened alert zone.

“The constraint varies less, it drops to 28%.

Where we are really going to increase it is when we are going to put in place the measures taken just before the curfew, that is to say the closure of certain public spaces, the curfew in bars. and restaurants on September 26.

From there, the constraint increases and we go to 35% constraints on the spread of the virus, we go to a peak on January 22 with 5,000 new cases per day, we have really shifted in time and reduced the intensity of the peak, ”says the biostatistician.

The curfew has a lighter impact, since the stress of the virus goes from 35 to 37%, the peak of infections then being expected on February 10 with 4,200 cases.

A posteriori, one wonders if this measure should not have applied earlier, as was the case in cities like Bordeaux.

“Of course, if we take this measure earlier, we can better control the spread of the virus.

At present, we are not at saturation point and in a dramatic situation.

Our models allow us to anticipate the potential date of saturation of resuscitation and to put in place measures to avoid it.

The measures which were taken in Toulouse were taken in a coherent timing, ”assures the researcher.

In about ten days, it will be able to say, thanks to its model and to real-time data of positive cases identified in the urban area, if the act II confinement has had an impact on the circulation of the coronavirus.

On these curves, we projected the theoretical saturation threshold of intensive care services in Toulouse, we see that even with the curfew measures we go at a given time to this saturation threshold.

But for her, one thing is certain.

"We do not have an extensive capacity to increase our resuscitation beds in Toulouse, the only solution we have left is to tighten the constraint to force the curve to drop below the saturation threshold," she concludes.

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  • epidemic

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  • Health

  • Coronavirus

  • Covid 19

  • Toulouse