Even if the confinement is successful, the Institut Pasteur plans 6,000 patients in mid-November

If the re-containment produces the same slowdown in contamination as in the spring, the epidemic could still reach a peak in mid-November of nearly 6,000 Covid-19 patients in intensive care, according to the latest projections from the Institut Pasteur .

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The epidemic peak would occur around mid-November

During the first confinement, the virus reproduction rate ("R", number of new people infected with each positive case) had fallen to 0.7.

If the new confinement has a "similar impact", 5,710 patients (between 5,400 and 6,020) of Covid-19 could be hospitalized in intensive care during an epidemic peak that would occur around mid-November, against 3,368 patients currently, according to models of the Institut Pasteur used by the Scientific Council which advises the government.

Other scenarios considered, due to the "less restrictive" confinement

But the new measures that came into force on Friday being "less restrictive", the researchers developed other scenarios with reproduction rates of up to 1.2 (against more than 1.3 currently).

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In the worst of these scenarios, the number of patients in intensive care could reach more than 6,600 in mid-November (between 6,300 and 7,050), and the epidemic peak delayed by a few weeks would reach around 8,600 sheaves (between 8,200 and 9,100).

A staggered epidemic peak?

This would be more than the peak of April 8, with 7,148 Covid patients in intensive care three weeks after the start of the first confinement.

And that would require the creation of more new intensive care beds: the number, raised from 5,100 to 5,800 after the first epidemic wave, had risen to 6,400 a few days ago and should soon exceed 7,000, according to the Minister of Health Olivier Véran.

However, "I think we will have a base reproduction number which will probably be between 0.8 and 0.9 rather than 1.2", which would lead to a peak around 6,000 beds, said Simon Cauchemez, a authors of the study.

But other variables can come into play.

The impact of the re-containment will be late "if the behavior remains as before"

All these projections thus start from the hypothesis of an "instantaneous" impact of the reconfinement.

But if it "has a late impact, if for a few days the behavior remains as before", the researcher expects a number of patients in reaction possibly higher.

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In any case, given the delay between infections and hospitalizations, the government may not have clear signals in two weeks, when it must reassess the situation.

And even in the most optimistic scenario, we would find ourselves on December 1, the end of confinement planned for the moment, with around 3,000 Covid patients in intensive care, roughly like today.

"Nothing is decided yet on the size of this second wave"

By then, the number of contaminations should certainly have fallen, but it will nevertheless be necessary "to reflect on the duration of the confinement and also on the afterwards", on the measures to be put in place after leaving confinement, said Simon Nightmare.

To avoid a new resumption of the epidemic.

"Nothing has yet been decided on the size of this second wave", insisted the researcher, while the Pasteur Institute had mentioned, before confinement, a hypothesis of more than 9,000 patients in mid-November and even more in -of the.