Land sales in 22 cities exceeded 50 billion, setting a record. Some land prices have risen to the highest level in history. Is the next wave of market coming?
Central Plains Real Estate Research Center statistics show that since this year, as of October 26, the cumulative income of land transfer fees in more than 22 cities across the country has exceeded 50 billion yuan, setting a new record.
The impact of the epidemic has gradually passed, and many cities have concentrated on selling land, and the land market transaction volume has continued to rise.
The trend of real estate companies actively acquiring land has begun to appear.
According to industry insiders, the price of some land in some cities has reached historical highs.
The impact of the epidemic has faded, and the local auction market is heating up
The national land market continues to heat up.
From the data of Centaline Property, since this year, as of October 26, in the past 10 months, the cumulative income from land transfer in Shanghai and Hangzhou has exceeded 200 billion yuan, and the cumulative income from land transfer in 7 cities including Guangzhou, Beijing and Nanjing Both exceeded 100 billion yuan, and the land transfer income of more than 22 cities exceeded 50 billion yuan, setting a new historical record.
On the whole, the impact of the epidemic has gradually passed, and many cities have concentrated on selling land, and the land market transaction volume has continued to rise.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Property, analyzed to a reporter from China Economic Weekly, “As the economy recovers and funds are relatively loose, the enthusiasm of real estate companies to acquire land has gradually increased, and land transactions with high premium rates have once again appeared in many places, especially in Xiamen and other places. The historically highest total price of tens of billions of land plots has continued to increase the popularity of the land market."
Centaline Real Estate data show that in the above statistical period, Xiamen City's planned construction area increased by 48.24% year-on-year, and land transfer fees increased by 130.16% year-on-year.
According to the analysis of the Zhuge Housing Search Data Center, after entering the second quarter, with the gradual control of the epidemic, the pace of land promotion in multiple cities has accelerated significantly, and the supply in June reached the highest level of the year.
In the third quarter, with the introduction of tightening property market control policies in many places, the superimposed real estate financial supervision continued to become more stringent, and the land market gradually returned to rationality. In July and August, the amount of land gradually decreased, but in September, the scale of land supply rebounded slightly.
According to the monitoring of Zhuge Housing Data Center, in September, there were 981 land transactions in major prefecture-level cities across the country. The planned construction area of transactions increased by 0.8% year-on-year and 19.4% month-on-month; the transaction floor price was 4,262.47 yuan per square meter, up 10.48% year-on-year. The month-on-month drop was 6.6%; the land transfer fee was 436.821 billion yuan, up 11.36% year-on-year and 11.45% month-on-month.
The trend of real estate companies actively acquiring land has begun to appear.
According to data from Centaline Real Estate, in the first nine months of this year, the 50 largest real estate companies acquired 192.6 billion yuan in land, up 4.5% year-on-year.
According to incomplete statistics from a reporter from China Economic Weekly, in September alone, Vanke acquired 13 land for a total price of nearly 17 billion yuan; Country Garden acquired land for a total of nearly 15 billion yuan. In addition, many real estate companies acquired more than 100 yuan. 100 million yuan.
Will the next wave of market come?
In Zhang Dawei's view, real estate companies are actively acquiring land mainly for the pursuit of market size. In particular, companies that have acquired very little land in recent years have also begun to actively acquire land.
"Under the epidemic, some real estate companies judge that the market will quickly stabilize, and there will be policies to stimulate the property market. The enthusiasm for acquiring land has increased significantly, especially the overall market continued to heat up from May to October." Zhang Dawei said, "The impact of the epidemic on the capital chain of real estate companies Although it is large, the difficulty of financing is reduced, and some real estate companies are more enthusiastic about acquiring land."
Due to the epidemic this year, in order to support the recovery of the market, the country has taken many measures to reduce interest rates, loan thresholds, and promote consumption. At the same time, it also strictly prevents and controls excessive leverage.
Although the LPR interest rate has not been lowered for six consecutive months, it still remains at a relatively low level.
In terms of credit, data from the central bank showed that RMB loans increased by 16.26 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of this year, an increase of 2.63 trillion yuan year-on-year.
In terms of sectors, household loans increased by 6.12 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 1.53 trillion yuan, and medium- and long-term loans increased by 4.6 trillion yuan.
The increase in household sector loans and the increase in medium and long-term loans increased by 0.44 trillion yuan and 0.46 trillion yuan respectively year-on-year, setting new historical records.
The overall market activity is not low.
At present, the real estate market is gradually recovering from south to north, and the transaction volume continued to rebound in the third quarter. There have been many hot deals in some regional markets.
Various factors are superimposed, and industry insiders generally predict that the national real estate market transaction volume will break new records this year.
Against this background, will the property market usher in a new round of rising prices?
Zhang Dawei said that it is not easy to judge at present, and it depends on the trend of future policies.
"At present, although the overall land market price has not risen across the board, the price of some land in some cities has reached historical highs." Zhang Dawei said.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of the E-House Research Institute, said that the national average land transfer price in the first nine months of the National Bureau of Statistics has increased by 17.2% year-on-year, and the increase has expanded. Therefore, all regions need to actively stabilize land prices in the future to prevent the expansion of land price bubbles. , Transmitted to the real estate sales market.
"China Economic Weekly" reporter Li Huimin|Report from Beijing