Nearly one in two Ivorians is not yet enjoying the fruits of growth

Audio 03:43

A supermarket in Abidjan (Photto d'illustration).

REUTERS / Thierry Gouegnon

By: Dominique Baillard Follow

8 min

Côte d'Ivoire votes Saturday to elect a new president, or to renew Alassane Ouattara, in power for ten years.

Its economic record is rather good, but not for all Ivorians.

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On the positive side, the Ivorian economy is undergoing a rebirth.

With an average growth of 7% to 8% since 2011 - and without taking into account the current year marred by the pandemic - the West African elephant is jubilant: supported by the return of aid international and public investment, it has regained its driving role in the sub-region thanks to its agricultural exports;

it is the world's largest producer of cocoa and cashew nuts.

Its GDP, $ 58 billion in 2019, has doubled in ten years.

In relation to the number of inhabitants, the national wealth is higher than in neighboring Ghana or Nigeria.

Public accounts are kept, the deficit and debt were under control before the pandemic.

And the daily life of Ivorians has improved

70% now have access to water and electricity, they can benefit from universal health insurance which has been deployed for a year.

These ultra-rapid advances make one dream of a " 

 ", according to economist Denis Cogneau, that of the presidency of Houphouët-Boigny.

But far too many Ivorians are excluded from this little miracle: according to the World Bank, almost one inhabitant in two lives below the poverty line, with less than 737 FCFA per day, or 1.10 euros.

Is it a failure of the Ouattara presidency

Not quite.

The study conducted by the National Institute of Statistics and the World Bank concludes on the contrary that there was a net decline in poverty between 2012 and 2018, in relative terms.

This is also the conclusion of economist Denis Cogneau, who carried out a study on the income of Ivorian households over the period 2010 and 2014. But in absolute value, the demographic surge is wiping out this progress.

As the population has grown sharply over the past ten years, the number of poor people has increased from 10 million to 11 million people.

If too few Ivorians benefit from the spillover effects of growth, it is also because income inequalities remain very high: 1% of the population receives 17% of national income - in France it is roughly half. less - based on 2014 figures provided by the World Inequality Database.

The tax yield is still very low, it stagnates at 18% of the GDP.

In advanced OECD countries, it is twice as much.

This therefore limits redistribution policies.

Despite record growth, Côte d'Ivoire has also failed to rise to emerging country status

Difficult to detect the driving activity that will allow the economy to take off, according to Denis Cogneau, who has examined the accounts closely.

One year, the telecoms drive growth, another the generous cocoa prices, sometimes household consumption or investments.

Côte d'Ivoire has bet on its agricultural specialization.

Growth has mainly been driven by an extensive practice of agriculture, by clearing land, to develop cashew nuts in the north of the country and to boost cocoa production.

Today it exceeds two million tonnes, compared to 1.5 million ten years ago.

A model that is not sustainable, warns Denis Cogneau, “ 

 "

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• Economy

• Ivory Coast

• Alassane Ouattara