Arithmetic of war

US Defense Secretary Mark Esper said all US allies, including non-NATO countries, should increase defense spending to at least 2% of their GDP.

These are not the first statements in this spirit - even earlier, Trump had threatened to withdraw from the North Atlantic alliance if NATO members did not fulfill their obligations on budget payments.

Is it really?

According to the SIPRI Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Germany's military and defense spending is growing and exceeded the 1993 level.

Since the time of Helmut Kohl, Germany has consistently followed NATO's course, increasing its military spending and modernizing its army.

True, 30 years ago the newly united country was embarrassed to speak out loudly about this and the words "defense budget" were rarely spoken at all.

For the sake of fairness, it should be noted that sometimes Germany showed obstinacy even in relation to its overseas patron - the United States.

In 1989, the United States of America had to endure a humiliating moment when Germany refused to conduct nuclear maneuvers on its territory.

Then Washington suggested that the North Atlantic Alliance conduct a training bombing of the city of Leipzig with nuclear warheads - to simulate an attack by the Soviet Union on Germany.

The then Secretary of State of the Ministry of Defense Willie Wimmer categorically refused the United States to conduct such maneuvers.

The maneuvers did not take place, the USA was irritated to the point of impossibility - they complained to Helmut Kohl, but the Chancellor left everything unchanged.

When asked to comment on the situation and answer the question of why today Germany abandons independence in defense matters and succumbs to US pressure, Wimmer noted with bitterness that “times have changed, the chancellor is not the same, and the defense minister is not able to say no.

Therefore, when American representatives rudely demand that Berlin increase military spending, the Defense Secretary silently nods approvingly.

Yielding to US pressure, Germany is confidently moving towards increasing its military budget.

But some time ago, German politicians reacted indignantly to the words of the American ambassador Richard Grenell, who, in an orderly tone, demanded an increase in the military budget.

"Unacceptable interference in German affairs" - this is how the leading German politicians reacted to criticism.

Vice-Chancellor Olaf Scholz explicitly advised the American ambassador not to advise the German government.

This did not make a big impression on the Americans, the pressure continues.

But Trump needn't worry.

Germany is ready to pay more, said German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karenbauer.

Much more?

Germany and without prompting from Washington increases its defense spending every year.

For example, compared to 2018, defense spending has increased by 3.6%.

There is no doubt that this figure will also increase.

Among the European allies, France contributes most of the NATO budget - more than $ 50 billion. Germany is in second place with $ 49 billion, followed by Britain.

However, among all NATO allies, it is the increase in German military spending that is most notable.

From 2010 to 2019, Germany's spending was unnoticed by 15%.

In general, all this arithmetic on military expenditures is not arithmetic, but higher mathematics.

Because the expenses that are indicated in the official reports are really underestimated - some items of expenses are not covered by defense budgets and are not visible in the analysis.

At least this is indicated by the aforementioned Stockholm Institute.

The analysts of the institute write that the overall figures of the German military budget, which are tied to the volume of GDP, differ significantly from the real state of affairs.

Let's try to explain this situation.

Germany's defense spending goes not only through the Ministry of Defense, but also through the budgets of other ministries and is not included in the total spending quota for the NATO alliance.

For example, from the budget of the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs, activities are paid for the maintenance of peace and the pacification of conflicts in various parts of the world.

This work is carried out by the Bundeswehr, that is, the German Ministry of Defense, but paid by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

There are expenses, but they are not visible.

A little trick from the field of mathematics - and the total figure of Germany's military spending is underestimated.

But that's not all.

There is also the so-called financial expenditure plan, which passes through the statements of the German Ministry of Finance.

This is nothing more than the cost of maintaining foreign military contingents in Germany.

Let's decipher: the foreign military contingent is an American group of forces located in Germany.

All analysts assumed that the costs of this grouping are borne by the United States of America.

However, as the Stockholm Institute points out, this is not so, all this pleasure is paid for by German taxpayers.

If we summarize these additional plans, then the unaccounted expenses amount to another gigantic figure of € 5.3 billion. It is impossible to figure out exactly what expenses - for the American army, for maintaining peace in the world, or something else - these amounts go. : This is classified information.

In other words, when discussing Germany's military budget, one should take into account not only the financial statements of the Ministry of Defense, but also the country's overall financial plan.

It is enough for the German government to show these implicit expenditures in the general line - and the 2% quota will be fulfilled.

Probably, the USA is well aware of this, and the German financiers are certainly well aware.

True, Berlin is not going to make attempts to explain itself and thus not increase its military spending.

Berlin is interested in raising the level of its military expenditures, and the US pressure is very much out of hand.

The material and technical condition of the German Bundeswehr is deplorable, there is a shortage of personnel, Berlin is not sure about the future of NATO.

Therefore, Berlin will continue to increase its participation in NATO in micro doses, while at the same time developing other items of expenditure, implicit and invisible to analysts, but aimed at its defense.

The author's point of view may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.