Can we avoid a reconfinement in France?

Is France moving towards a general reconfinement?

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• Ireland and Wales are the first European nations to have opted for re-containment on Monday. 

• The end of a taboo in Europe, while these two countries have figures of circulation of the virus and of mortality much lower than in France.

• The question inevitably arises.

  Can France, one of the countries most affected by the second European wave of Covid-19, manage to cope without a general reconfinement? 

This Monday, Wales and Ireland each announced a re-containment, respectively of two and six weeks, except for schools.

This is the first time since the first wave that European countries have announced containment.

Across the Channel, Slovenia, France, some cities in Germany and Lombardy have implemented a curfew in the past two weeks.

It must be said that the European figures are not good at all: more than 8,000 deaths between Monday 12 and Monday 19, a weekly assessment never seen on the Old Continent since mid-May.

This continental record is of particular concern to France, which is among the countries most affected by the second wave.

Wales and Ireland, for example, have a much lower incidence rate than France.

So the question arises: can France avoid a reconfinement?

Already, the semantics of the government have evolved over the months and increasingly negative signals from Public Health France, moving from a re-containment excluded from the options in August and September before being gradually brandished as a solution of last resort. during October.

Curve which rises and virus which escapes us

And indeed, there is something to be pessimistic about.

For infectious disease specialist Nathan Peiffer-Smadja, not only is the situation bad - intensive care beds mostly occupied by Covid-19 patients, very high positivity rate, massive hospitalizations in recent days and weeks - but above all "this situation is also changing in the bad, without being able for the moment to contain and even less stop the progression of the virus ”.

Jérôme Marty, general practitioner and president of the French Union for Free Medicine (UFML), for his part particularly points to the positivity rate above 13%, “and soon to 14.” A finding without appeal for him: “This shows that the virus escaped us.

We are now unable to trace the transmission channels and there are too many clusters, in addition to being distributed throughout the territory ”.

The doctor wonders: who today does not know a close relative or a close relative at least in contact?

The faint hope of curfew

As the coronavirus takes about two to three weeks to show symptoms and send the sick to hospital, it will certainly be necessary to wait before seeing whether the new French curfew measures, taken last Wednesday and applied since Friday, will be sufficient.

We can not know for the moment, "even if the scientific literature is not very optimistic on the subject", warns Nathan Peiffer-Smadja.

The clusters most listed by Public Health France - according to the analysis of a sample of total cases of Covid-19 in France - are at school, in business and in university, places little affected by the curfew.

Few levers before confinement

In the event that this curfew does not work, "there are not many levers left before total containment", warns Nathan Peiffer-Smadja: "The" bars and restaurants "lever is fully activated, just like the one on the respect for barrier gestures and prudence.

At this stage, either the French are already applying them, or the government's reminders will not change their minds.

"

He cites the rare levers that it is still possible to maneuver: mask in school from elementary school, distance education in school and university, and oblige rather than encourage teleworking unless it is impossible to practice it.

"Nothing is written and there is no official maneuver guide, but if the curfew is not enough to contain the virus, we will have to take a radical measure to contain the epidemic, we will not let people die on the streets.

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The fear of the eastern pressure cooker

A "radical" measure, this is what has been lacking so far for Jérôme Marty: "When we see countries with far fewer cases than France already reconfine themselves ... The longer we wait, the less the non-containment measures have chance to work.

France applies a graduation policy - we apply new measures each time the situation deteriorates - but since it takes three weeks to see the effects of the disease, we are only chasing it.

"

With the multiplication of cases, he fears a "pressure cooker" effect as in the Grand-Est during the first wave: "The cases go up, go up, then one day it explodes.

This is the catastrophic scenario that we are going through, and it is difficult to escape re-containment in this case.

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