Singing is prohibited at mass, Health recognizes aerosol transmission in the new early response plan

• Direct Last minute on the coronavirus

• HEALTH The new Health plan foresees closing the interior of the bars and reducing public transport in nine autonomous regions

Yes now.

At the almost 'peak' of the 'second wave', as Fernando Simón, director of the Center for the Coordination of Health Alerts and Emergencies, pointed out yesterday, an early response plan has been drawn up, "where the indicators are very clear and

"says Ildefonso Hernández, former director of Public Health.

To which Juan Martínez, also former director of Public Health, adds that "you

: accumulated incidence, mortality rate, hospital admissions

talarios and monitor every week.

"And it is the small details that underline that a second wave has been needed in which, without reaching the peak, almost a million cases are added, errors are assumed and an amendment is sought on them.

Only two passengers per taxi?

The answer is in the

.

They are

many studies

that point out, with more and more certainty, that the virus travels through the air and that depending on the size of its droplets, they can remain in suspension for more or less time.

And therein lies the

The mere fact of

.

The action of singing is a good example of this, and of the risk involved in doing it in closed spaces, even if you wear masks (there are many types and not all of them protect 100%).

So

, which created doubts for Simón at the beginning of the month: "There is no solid evidence that there has been transmission by aerosols in normal social media, although there are groups that are proposing it as a possible transmission mechanism."

Data problem to set actions

Another sample of amendment is the data, the Achilles heel of the control of the pandemic in Spain.

The draft plan provides that "

if unconsolidated data is used due to reporting delays

, this AI [cumulative incidence] should be calculated by subtracting the days on which said consolidation is considered insufficient (eg subtracting the last 3 days). "According to Health, the average of the

notification delays is three to four days

, and even reaches eight days.

This assumes that the "photo" drawn by the CCAES daily reports are not from the day, but are from three days ago or, even in some cases, a week ago.

"You have to be careful with the figures, because sometimes a community has an incidence of 200, a couple of days go by and it doubles with the data update," Simón insisted last Monday.

no reliable data, more indicators, more complexity

.

For Juan Martínez, former director of Public Health, "the creative capacity to invent criteria and make everything more complex is striking."

Although, it recognizes that "it is seen that there is a good intention: that the response is early and graduated and that there may be common criteria between communities."

New indicators: percentages of isolates

In this sense, Hernández explains that, given the document's draft nature, "it would be necessary to include

an indicator of isolations

.

This would reveal the level of traceability that we have. "The expert refers to the percentage of people who are in quarantine. And this,

links with the ability to trace a positive case and the location of close contacts

.

According to the draft, only the percentage of cases with traceability is requested and "if the CCAA has information, the diagnosed cases associated with an outbreak can also be included here, assess ..." Perhaps this is a pending issue, since

case tracking is also an effort that needs to be improved

if you want to go from a mitigation phase, in which you deal with community transmission, to a control phase.

Martínez points out that "everything is much simpler: it is a new disease for which there is no vaccine or treatment and the objective must be

achieve the lowest possible incidence and mortality rates

to bring the epidemic to pre-eradication levels with non-pharmacological control measures (isolation of cases, quarantine of contacts and confinements when the above fails), so that when the vaccine arrives, the virtual disappearance of the disease is achieved.

".

Fixation in the vulnerable population: schedules and indicators for people over 65

In the

Covid-19 Control Scenario Early Response Plan

In force, it already mentions in the scenario collected as actions for sporadic outbreaks that there are preferential time slots for vulnerable groups.

And it is true that, so far, since the de-escalation,

this does not exist as a measure in any autonomous community

.

In the draft, there is further specified that they should be put

schedules for those over 70 to perform physical activities and access to shops

To make these decisions, too

the future plan fixes on this population some scales regarding contagions

.

An important fact, since in recent weeks the age of the infected has risen: 80 weekly cases for every 100,000 inhabitants in the last

Health report

.

This is what Hernández details about the new indicators in the population over 65 years of age and the importance of them: "

There are communities that already measure the incidence in older people, the Community of Madrid itself does it

.

What allows us to make decisions to avoid risks in the vulnerable population.

Because this is what ICU bed occupancy and mortality will reveal to you.

If he rises in this group it is a wake-up call.

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