Navalny case and Polish fine: knockouts for Nord Stream 2?

Audio 01:58

Installations of the Russian Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in Lubmin, northeastern Germany, September 7, 2020 (illustrative image).

Odd ANDERSEN / AFP

By: Claire Fages Follow

5 mins

The Russian Nord Stream 2 pipeline is not directly targeted by the new European sanctions against Moscow, after the poisoning of Russian opponent Alexei Navalny.

But this case, as well as Poland's fine against Nord Stream 2, could permanently bury the Russian gas project.

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The Navalny affair and the Polish fine could well be the coup de grace for Nord Stream 2. The Gazprom gas pipeline is however almost completed, there are only 120 km of pipes to be laid at the bottom of the Baltic Sea, over 1,230 km in total.

The Navalny case makes the project difficult for Berlin to defend

But the Navalny affair poisons Russia's relations with Germany.

If Angela Merkel, in her desire to impose retaliatory measures against Moscow with Europe, has not openly attacked Nord Stream 2, this gas pipeline, which is the result of long energy cooperation between Berlin and Moscow, is more and more cumbersome for the Chancellor.

He is under American sanctions.

Sanctions which have pushed the Swiss pipelayer Allseas to leave the Russian site in limbo.

Polish fine: what about Gazprom's European partners

?

And now Poland condemns Gazprom to a fine of 6.5 billion euros.

The Polish competition authority considers that the doubling of Nord Stream will have a negative impact on the Polish gas market.

It also collectively condemns the European energy companies, including the French Engie, which unable to form a consortium with Gazprom, have managed to finance half of the project.

These companies are caught up by the patrol

," summarizes Thierry Bros, expert at the Energy Delta Institute and professor at Sciences-Po Paris.

They have not yet said whether they will appeal, which Gazprom has already done.

But it could be an option for these European companies to exit the Nord Stream 2 project. They will have lost a billion euros, but the risks of American sanctions are even greater

 ”.

Hydrogen one day in Nord Stream

?

As for the new Nord Stream 2 pipes, neither Europe nor the Russians need them right away, the gas transit agreement has been renewed with Ukraine until 2024.

By then, Europe will want hydrogen, underlines the expert.

If France wants to produce it on a nuclear basis, the rest of Europe and in particular Germany could need to import hydrogen made from… Russian gas.

Nord Stream could therefore never transport gas, but perhaps hydrogen in a few years!

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