A Covid-19 screening test, in Toulouse, on September 29.
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FRED SCHEIBER / SIPA
Reacting to the announcement of the curfew, the leader of La France insoumise argued that “60% of contamination takes place at work or at school or at university between 8 am and 7 pm.
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55% of the clusters under investigation correspond well to these categories.
However, clusters only represent 5% of confirmed Covid-19 cases.
Where do we get the most coronavirus?
The thorny question is at the heart of the debates after the announcement of the curfew imposed on eight metropolises and the Ile-de-France from Saturday.
Reacting to Emmanuel Macron's announcements on Wednesday evening, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of La France insoumise, advanced on Twitter that "60% of contaminations take place at work or at school or at university between 8 h and 19 h.
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Olivier Véran, the Minister of Health, replied: “60% of clusters, that means 10% of identified contaminations.
You confuse clusters and diagnostics.
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60% of clusters, that means 10% of identified contaminations.
You confuse clusters and diagnostics.
Too bad to argue at a time when we want to preserve education, safeguard jobs, and fight effectively against this epidemic in the interest of the French.
https://t.co/CWw5JFQpNZ
- Olivier Véran (@olivierveran) October 14, 2020
FAKE OFF
The figures put forward by the LFI deputy do not represent all of the Covid-19 contaminations.
They only represent the cases identified within the clusters.
According to the latest report from Public Health France, dated October 8, 55% of the clusters under investigation came from schools and universities (35%) and private and public companies (20%).
Health establishments are not counted in companies - they represent 11% of the clusters under investigation.
In total, since May 9, the largest number of clusters have been identified in companies (25%) as well as universities and schools (21%).
These clusters represented 34,067 cases, for 653,509 confirmed cases of Covid-19 since January, according to data from Public Health France, or 5% of confirmed cases.
Public Health France recognizes that, "faced with the increase in viral circulation throughout the country, the number of clusters identified is probably largely underestimated".
However, these data remain "relevant" to "help guide the management measures" of the pandemic, underlines the organization, because they make it possible "to identify the communities for which the proportion of high-criticality clusters is the highest"
So where are the other Covid patients infected?
At present, data on this subject is difficult to obtain.
"We only have the origin of the contaminations for the clusters", recalls Kévin Jean, lecturer in epidemiology at Cnam.
The limits of "contact tracing"
“Contact tracing”, set up in particular to prevent contact cases, does not trace individual contaminations.
This technique "makes it possible to identify collective places of contamination", underlines the Health Insurance with
20 Minutes
.
This has its limits, emphasizes on Twitter Maxime Gignon, professor of public health at the University of Picardy: “Tracing contacts is complex.
Identifying the moment when they may have become infected is even more so: lunch at the staff restaurant?
In the evening when they went for a drink?
The weekend with the cousins?
[…] It is often said that there are not / few cases of contamination outside, perhaps.
But go and identify during a tracing, the contamination during a passage through a densely populated city center… impossible.
It is not the tracing that will give us some answers.
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The government had already argued that we are "three times more likely to be contaminated in a bar", or that public transport, conversely, only represented a tiny number of contaminations.
Hazardous statements in the absence of large-scale data.
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