Coffins in Mulhouse, April 5, 2020, during confinement.

(illustration) -

SEBASTIEN BOZON / AFP

  • What if the Covid-19 epidemic had ultimately not resulted in more deaths than in a “normal” year in France?

  • This is what a Facebook post says, based on mortality statistics from INSEE, very similar, in 2020, to those of recent years.

  • But the figures in question and the comparison method used are not appropriate, as

    Sylvie Le Minez, head of the demographic and social studies unit at INSEE

    , explains to

    20 Minutes.

“Where is the Covid pandemic?

"On Facebook, a table comparing the number of deaths in France over the first eight months of 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 claims to prove, with supporting figures, that the coronavirus epidemic would not have caused excess mortality this year.

According to this comparison, which claims to be based on figures from INSEE (National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies), the cumulative number of deaths over the January-August period would be almost identical from one year to the next. the other: 424,053 in 2017, 435,270 in 2018, 433,567 in 2019 and finally 437,727 in 2020.

Mortality figures in 2020 and over the last few years in France - Screenshot

“These are the INSEE figures, the only irrefutable ones, supplied by the town halls where the dead are declared.

Anyone can consult them on the Internet, and the State cannot falsify them, ”adds the Facebook publication.

Except that the figures in question, if they are taken from INSEE, are not those to which it is advisable to refer for this type of comparison.

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, Sylvie Le Minez, head of the demographic and social studies unit at INSEE, explains: “We make two types of files on deaths available.

The person who produced the table did not use the voucher, since he used the name file of the deceased ”.

This administrative file "is used above all to search for deceased persons, to proceed to their count.

For example, the figures for August 2020 are very low there because the data have not yet been fully collected and must be completed, which explains why the total is very close to the first eight months of 2019. The deaths of the month of August 2020 recorded in September will appear in the September file.

"

“In addition, the dates contained in the file are those of the registration of the death, but not necessarily the moment when it took place, and people who died abroad are also included,” she continues.

Insee also warns, in bold on its website: the file "does not include all the deaths that occurred during the month".

"Based on the most complete file for establishing statistics, which was made available on the INSEE website this Friday, October 2, for the period from January to the end of August, we arrive at approximately 430,000 deaths occurring in France in 2020, ie 20,000 more than in 2019, there was therefore an excess mortality linked to the Covid-19 epidemic, ”continues Sylvie Le Minez.

"We should rather compare over the period of March-April"

The period retained in the Facebook publication is not the most relevant either, emphasizes Sylvie Le Minez: “In the context of the epidemic, we should not compare January-August 2020 to January-August 2019 in a crude manner, but rather compare by period, in this case in March-April, during confinement.

We can see that there were around 27,000 more deaths than over the same period in 2019. Conversely, in January-February, there were 8,000 fewer deaths in 2020 than in 2019, because the seasonal flu has been much less virulent this year.

We observe the same type of fluctuations in summer compared to the heat wave period, which can occur between June and August and cause seasonal mortality.

"

Finally, the mortality figures recorded by INSEE since March 2020 are not all due to Covid-19, far from it, the body compiling deaths, all causes combined.

As of August 31, the toll of the number of victims of Covid-19 established by Public Health France was 30,635 deaths.

And if the death peak in March-April is directly linked to the epidemic, some of its consequences (such as confinement) are still difficult to assess, as Sylvie Le Minez explains: “We see for example that there is has had fewer deaths for young people in particular, thanks to car accidents which have decreased, but in very small numbers.

And then there are also unknowns: for example, cancer patients whose care has been delayed because of confinement may cause deaths soon or have already caused them in the past period.

"

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