Up to 40% of the Amazon rainforest is at risk of turning into savannah

Much of the Amazon rainforest could turn into savannah (illustration) -

Up to 40% of the Amazon rainforest is at risk of turning into savannah by the end of the century.

In question: the lack of precipitation caused by greenhouse gas emissions, indicates a study published Monday in

.

Forests are in fact particularly sensitive to changes in rainfall patterns over long periods.

Lack of water ends up killing trees resulting in the loss of tropical ecosystems, and reduced ability to absorb human-made greenhouse gas emissions.

" A vicious circle "

A team of European scientists from the Stockholm Resilience Center used the latest available atmospheric data to simulate the response of humid forests to a change in rainfall patterns.

And especially the consequences of continuing to use fossil fuels until the end of the century.

They calculated that the Amazon rainfalls are already so low that up to 40% of its forest could turn into a savanna system.

Lead author of the study, Arie Staal, noted that humid forests normally create their own precipitation through evaporation, benefiting tree growth.

But the reverse is also true.

When the rains are scarce, the forest disappears.

"When the forest decreases, there is less rain downwind, which leads to drought, and more fires and loss of trees: it's a vicious circle," she said.

Congo Basin also in danger

The study also looked at the resilience of tropical rainforests under extreme scenarios.

In one of them, the researchers concluded that if they suddenly disappeared, it would be very difficult for humid forests to recover.

“If they disappear, it will take decades to restore them to their original state,” says Ingo Fetzer, also of the Stockholm Resilience Center.

In addition to the Amazon basin, the study established that the Congo basin was also at risk of turning into a savannah.

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• Planet

• Jair Bolsonaro

• study

• Amazonia

• Greenhouse gas

• Forest