Chinanews client, Beijing, October 4th (Peng Jingru) "I really want that bag. I will wait for the next window shopping and then touch it." Many girls are attracted to the little sisters who just go shopping and not buy it. The source of happiness.
Interestingly, the phenomenon of "window shopping" has also appeared in the property market recently: In the just-concluded "Golden Nine" period, the number of people looking at houses has increased, but the transaction volume has not risen accordingly. Do buyers just want to have eye addiction?
Buyers have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere before National Day
"There were a lot of people looking at houses in September, but the transaction list was not as long as the previous two months." A real estate agency in Xicheng District, Beijing is still reminiscing about the wave of house buying before the end of July.
Previously, Beijing's Xicheng District stipulated that after July 31, 2020, all school-age children from families who purchased a house and obtained a housing ownership certificate in Xicheng District applied for elementary school in the school district or adjacent school districts.
Subsequently, the property market in Xicheng District, Beijing set off a wave of buying houses.
Data map: A real estate agency store in Xicheng District, Beijing.
Photo by Peng Jingru
“Although there are more buyers who just need homes now, everyone’s needs are not so urgent. The clients I keep in touch now are all preparing to buy houses in Xicheng for their children to go to school, but several of them said they would like to compare them again, and they are not particularly anxious. Buy it." The above-mentioned intermediary said that many parents had to catch the "last train" before, so the transaction volume was quite good.
An intermediary in Beijing’s Haidian District felt the same way: “Recently, people really don’t want to buy a lot, but people who inspect the house do have a need to buy a house, so it’s just a matter of time before it starts.”
The phenomenon of not buying a house is not only seen in Beijing. According to data released by the Shell Research Institute on September 28, with July 2019 as the base period, the subscription ratio index of Shell National 100 new houses in the country increased significantly in September.
Pan Hao, a senior analyst at the Shell Research Institute, explained that the higher the index, the greater the difficulty of the transaction, that is, a large number of customers were seen, but none of the transactions were made.
"This index has a certain degree of fluctuation in the early period. When we counted last week (the third week of September), the value climbed very much. It was mainly due to the wait-and-see sentiment before the holiday, so we are looking forward to real estate companies. Will there be more promotional efforts during the "Eleventh" period," Pan Hao said.
Real estate enterprises start the "replenishment
"
mode for new housing supply
"Golden 9" property market is really only "window shopping"?
Does anyone take advantage of this time to "chop hands" to buy a house?
There are still some, but the data is tepid.
According to the monitoring of the Shell Research Institute, the total number of new housing transactions in 66 cities in the third quarter increased by 2.0% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month.
"Since July, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Chengdu and other cities have introduced regulatory and upgrade policies to crack down on real estate speculation and prevent market fluctuations in the'Golden 9th Silver 10th'. The transaction volume fell in September, so it failed to drive the rapid data in the third quarter. rise."
Data map: A residential building in Hangzhou.
Photo by Guo Qiyu
Compared with new houses, the performance of second-hand houses is even worse.
"In week 38 (September 14-20), the overall second-hand housing market in key cities across the country continued to cool down, with transactions decreasing by 9% month-on-month." Of the 18 cities that the Shell Research Institute focused on, 14 cities actually sold second-hand housing The month-on-month decline, the sales in Langfang, Yantai, and Qingdao all fell by more than 10%.
Among the first-tier cities, Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have gradually recovered their low levels, while Guangzhou's high levels have fallen.
Why does this phenomenon occur?
Zhang Bo, Dean of 58 Anju Guest House Property Research Institute, told Chinanews.com that the tightening of the overall real estate financing has had a deeper impact on the market, which will further increase the threshold for buyers of more than two sets of houses, which has obvious investment needs. Used for pressing.
"In August, real estate companies rushed to sell real estate, coupled with the intensive introduction of regulatory policies in many places from the end of August to early September, and the merger of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, which lost one consumption node and other factors, resulting in the property market’s "Golden 9 'Insufficient fineness.' Pan Hao said analytically.
However, the real estate company did not seem to be "disheartened" by this, and instead started the replenishment model.
According to many media reports, in the last 10 days of September, nearly 20 projects in Beijing gathered together, from Chang'an Jiuli in the west of Beijing, Zhonghai Shijingshan "just changed three brothers", and Fangshan's Beijing No. Jun Yunjingtai, to Aohai Mingyue and Orson One on the North Fifth Ring Road, and to the "Three Brothers of Mining Temple" are all unveiled.
"In the'golden nine and silver ten' stage of the real estate market, the potential demand for home purchases is still relatively large, and the control of pre-sale certificates in various places is also less, so developers still have relatively large expectations for transactions in the real estate market." Research by E-House Research Institute Think Tank Center Director Yan Yuejin told Chinanews.com that although local policies have become stricter, pre-sales are still relatively loose, including Beijing and Shenzhen.
According to statistics from Leyoujia Research Center, in August, a total of 17 new projects in Shenzhen were approved for pre-sale, including a total of 14 residential projects in the Shenzhen-Shantou Cooperation Zone, supplying a total of 9,600 units. The supply in August alone was more than the entire More in the first half.
In September, more than 20 new projects entered the market in Shenzhen.
Small peak in new house transactions may support "Silver Ten"
Real estate companies are struggling, will buyers give the property market "Silver Ten" a little thinner?
"From the perspective of the situation, the customer base is guaranteed. The market transactions in the next two weeks to four weeks should be predictable." Pan Hao believes that the '11' Golden Week is a better time, everyone There is time to look at the house and sign during the holidays, so the sales data for the next October will be reflected.
The enthusiasm of buyers for house inspections is indeed heating up.
According to the national monitoring data of 58 Anju Guest House Property Research Institute, in the third quarter, the search for new houses in the Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou-Shenzhen regions all rose year-on-year, and the search for new houses in 9 cities around Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose by 27.4% year-on-year; From a year-on-year point of view, the popularity of new houses in Xi'an, Chengdu, Changsha, Hangzhou, Nanjing, and Dongguan all increased by more than 20% year-on-year.
In addition, the popularity of second-hand housing search in Beijing and Shanghai increased by more than 30% year-on-year, and the popularity of second-hand housing visits in Chengdu, Xi'an and Changsha increased by more than 10% year-on-year.
Data map: A certain real estate project attracts many buyers to come to "buy houses".
Photo by Tang Yanjun issued by China News Agency
Many agencies predict that there will be a wave of small peaks in new house transactions during the "Eleventh" Golden Week to support the "Silver Ten" property market.
However, under the "three stability" targets and regulatory pressures, the new housing market in the fourth quarter is unlikely to perform beyond expectations, and the transaction volume is expected to be the same as the same period last year.
Rigid demand will become a new driving force in the market.
“According to the seasonal rotation of demand, the market just needs to be leveraged at the beginning of the year, and then to improve the rotation. By the end of the year, the demand for improvement will release weakness, and the proportion of rigid demand will rebound.” According to the Shell Research Institute, looking at the distribution of second-hand housing, it can be seen that 8 Since the beginning of the month, the proportion of customers who have seen houses under 90 square meters have stopped falling and rebounded. In the fourth quarter, demand has gradually tilted towards rigid demand.
As for housing prices, Yan Yuejin believes that the current Chinese real estate market has entered the traditional "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" stage, and the supply of real estate in various regions has increased and the pace of sales promotion has accelerated significantly.
From this perspective, housing prices still have the possibility of further cooling.
"For real estate companies, actively cutting prices and giving benefits to home buyers can speed up the destocking of projects, which in turn will help promote performance growth and cool down housing prices in related cities."
Super Golden Week has started, have you been to the house?
"Window shopping" or immediately "chop hands"?
(Finish)