Should we be worried about the increase in homicides in France?

Investigators at the scene of a homicide in the Cité des Lauriers in Marseille.

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• The number of homicides increased, in 2019, by 4% compared to 2018: there are 880 against 855 the previous year, indicates the ministerial statistical service for internal security in its annual report published Wednesday. 

• Should we panic about this increase, as the criminologist Alain Bauer did on CNews, denouncing a “climate of violence” in France?

• For the sociologist and research director at the CNRS, Laurent Mucchielli, it is too early to draw conclusions, especially since the figures disclosed by the SSMSI are not detailed. 

Faced with the media criminologist, Eric Zemmour, looking serious, nods as if to approve the words.

On the CNews set, this September 25, Alain Bauer is invited to deliver his analysis on insecurity in France.

And his conclusion is clear: “There is a true climate of violence linked to a clear indicator: homicides.

"He assures that what he calls the" homicidity rate "- and which includes homicides, attempted homicides, assault and battery resulting in death and settling of scores - reached in 2019" his highest level ever calculated quantitatively "while it was down between 1995 and 2012. And Alain Bauer expects the figures for 2020 to be" at least the level of 2019, or even worse ".

Interviewed by

, sociologist Laurent Mucchielli believes that Alain Bauer is making “a mistake” by including attempted homicides in his reasoning.

"Where do very serious assault and battery end and where homicide attempts begin?"

It is a question of legal qualification and it is therefore subject to variation ", explains the research director at CNRS, author of a very detailed study in 2008 on" the evolution of homicides since the 1970s ".

We must, he says, focus only on homicides which are "always counted in the same way".

Their numbers declined "from the mid-1980s to the end of the 2000s."

Then it stabilized "between 2010 and today".

"If you want to look for an evolution, you have to wait two or three years"

But the latest report established by the ministerial statistical service for internal security (SSMSI) shows, for the year 2019, a 4% increase in the number of homicides over one year.

In this document released Wednesday, analysts identified 880 victims last year, 35 more than in 2018, 55 more than in 2017. However, Laurent Mucchielli explains that it is still too early to draw conclusions. conclusions.

Already, because no details concerning these homicides have been disclosed: how many settlements?

intra-family business?

infanticide?

Difficult, without these details, to find a rational explanation for this increase.

On the other hand, the sociologist asserts that it is too early to evoke a "trend".

"If you want to look for an evolution, you have to wait two or three years," he emphasizes.

For his part, Christophe Soullez, director of the ONDRP (National Observatory on Delinquency and Criminal Responses) nevertheless observes that "for four or five years, homicides have tended to increase".

But, he emphasizes, it is complicated to compare the figure for 2019 with those of previous years.

Indeed, for the first time, the SSMSI decided to publish rectified data.

That is to say, it now takes into account "the requalifications of facts subsequent to the month of posting".

For example, an investigation can finally conclude with a suicide whereas the hypothesis of a murder was raised at the beginning of the investigations.

812 homicides per year on average

On the other hand, errors were redacted from this annual report.

In the past, "the same victim could be counted several times by different services", he explains in his annual report.

But the SSMSI has kept in this document the figures for previous years, which have not been corrected.

“Before, the numbers were what they were.

There were perhaps duplicates but we could consider that the error, as we often say in statistics, was stable over time, ”adds the director of ONDRP.

Before emphasizing, a little annoyed: “What's interesting is to see the evolutions, the trends.

Go compare the numbers now.

He also regrets that the SSMSI publishes, throughout the year, "different figures".

Some, like those in the annual report, are adjusted.

Others, those published monthly or at the beginning of the year, are not.

"The percentages of change are completely different," laments Christophe Soullez.

Indeed, last February, several media - including

- were worried about the disturbing increase in the number of homicides based on a note from the SSMSI which counted 970 in 2019. Finally, there were 90 of them. less after corrections.

Although their number has increased slightly for four years (excluding attacks), it has remained relatively stable since 2009: over this period, there were on average 812 homicides per year.

Almost half as much as in 1996.

Society

Why the number of homicides is worryingly increasing in France

Maintaining order: The rag burns between Darmanin and the journalists

• Police

• Society

• Interior ministry

• Delinquency

• Statistics

• Criminality

• Homicide

• Murder

• Gendarmerie