In this regard, the "Scenarios" program (01/10/2020) continued a new chapter of ambiguity and anticipation, amid pessimistic expectations about what the next stage will bring in Lebanon, after French President Emmanuel Macron delivered a strongly worded speech in which he held the Lebanese political class responsible for obstructing the formation of a government New and the consequences of that, leaving at the same time the door open for an additional and final opportunity.
For his part, Joseph Bahout, Director of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs in Beirut, explained that there are new data in Lebanon that cannot be overlooked, the first of which is to return to the composition and adaptation square, meaning that the prime minister cannot be assigned to form the government before agreeing on the composition and form of distribution Ministerial portfolios.
As for the second factor, it is related to the doctrines of some portfolios, especially the Shiite finance portfolio, considering that this issue cannot be overcome.
He also considered that consideration must be given to the influence or the power of veto exercised by those described by the Secretary General of the Lebanese Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, in the "club of former prime ministers."
In the same context, professor of social sciences at the Lebanese University, Talal Atrissi, considered that Lebanon’s problem is the accumulation of norms in parallel with the constitution and laws, and it may even exceed them sometimes. Most of the negotiations that are taking place to form the government are part of the norms that existed before the Taif Agreement. Some of them were subsequently amended without being in the form of a legal text in the constitution.
As for the director of the Institute for International and Strategic Relations, Pascal Boniface, he considered that France has the ability to play a mediating role, but it cannot impose any policy on the Lebanese, indicating that it is up to the Lebanese to resolve their differences, given that France is very close to Lebanon, even if it does not do any Move, she will be accused of indifference, and upon her intervention she may be accused of interfering in the country's internal affairs.
He stressed the need for political forces in Lebanon to dispense with their narrow goals, especially since civil society is highly active and heavily recruited to protest, in light of the fact that the parties are still linked to a sterile political system.