Anhui, a region hardest hit by floods: pressure under a bumper harvest
Our reporter/Huang Xiaoguang
Published in the 965th issue of China News Weekly on September 21, 2020
At noon at the end of August, the sun was scorching, and a dozen pumps were running at full capacity on the porch in Hemao Town, Wuhu, Anhui, and the accumulated floodwater was continuously sent to the other side.
Zhang Yunjun, a villager on duty, looked at Zeguo, frowning.
Not far away, the roof of his house was above the water, and there were 60 acres of fertile land under the water.
"It was submerged in one night." Zhang Yunjun said. Compared with the house, it was rice that made him more sad. "I was always taken care of as a child."
For Anhui, this is a special year. The joy of summer harvest has not yet passed, and a flood that swept the province will follow one after another.
As one of the 13 major grain-producing provinces, Anhui produces two staple foods, wheat and rice, and its harvest performance is to a certain extent the national weather vane.
"This year we are resisting the highest risk, a large-scale, high-intensity, and wide-ranging disaster. For thousands of years, what we can do is to apologize with abundance and try our best to reduce losses." Anhui University, China, Three Rural Issues Center professor Chang Wei told China News Weekly.
Agriculture still has not really gotten rid of relying on the sky for food, and the annual grain production is a string that must be tightened.
For farmers, food security is not an abstract slogan, but a real test of survival.
The harvest of summer grains was "almost made with money"
"The Tian family has less free months, and May people are more busy." Luo Yingli, a large planter in Fuyang, Anhui, spent a busy and harvest summer this year.
On May 27, in the 1,200 acres of wheat field he contracted, seven harvesters started at the same time, and nearly one million catties of wheat rushed into the warehouse.
On this day, the main wheat-producing areas in Anhui Province fully started harvesting.
During the peak period, Anhui invested 104,000 harvesters, and finally completed the harvest of 43 million mu of wheat in 9 days with a 99% machine yield.
Jiao Kui is an agricultural machine operator in Bozhou, Anhui. He is experienced in judging the output of the corn field by the capacity of the harvester.
On May 14, he led a team of more than 300 agricultural machinery operators, starting from Hubei, all the way north, passing through Henan Nanyang and Zhumadian, northern Anhui, Henan Shangqiu, Shandong, and finally ended this year's harvesting season in Hebei.
"The harvest in various places is good this year. In general, the yield from the south to the north is higher and higher. The poor yield is seven to eight hundred jin per mu, and the good one is over 1,000 jin.
In Fuyang dialect, Luo Yingli, a big grower, belongs to the "face man" in the village.
He was the first person to grow rice in the village. He was the first to introduce rice transplanters and contracted more than 1,000 acres of land. At the same time, he also set up a social service team with harvesters, flight control machines, tractors and other agricultural equipment. The farming and substituting business reaches 20,000 to 30,000 mu.
Luo Yingli calculated an account for the reporter: to plant 1 mu of wheat, input 100 yuan for seeds, 150 yuan for fertilizers, 30 yuan for pesticides, 60 yuan for harvesting, 300 yuan for half a year for land contracting, and the total cost is about 600 yuan; for 1 mu of land to harvest 800 jin Wheat is sold for 900 yuan, and the net profit is about 300 yuan; calculated in the same way, the net profit is about 600 yuan for planting 1 mu of rice after the wheat is harvested.
Taken together, 1,200 mu of land was contracted, and the annual profit exceeded one million yuan.
However, Luo Yingli emphasized that "only a good year can make money."
Although Anhui has achieved the "seventeen consecutive harvests", for specific farmers, there is usually an alternating harvest, and the harvest is not stable.
"As long as there are no special disasters, I am sure to plant well. The problem is that there are too few good years!"
According to data provided by the Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of Anhui Province to China News Weekly, the total output of summer grains in Anhui Province in 2020 was 16.719 million tons, ranking third in the country, an increase of 149,000 tons from 2019, an increase of 0.9%; the yield per mu was 394.41 kg , An increase of 4.94 kg over the previous year, an increase of 1.27%.
In fact, this year's summer grain harvest in Anhui was hard-won.
A media person from Anhui Province told China News Weekly that from planting, field management to harvesting, Anhui has fought three tough battles with the power of the whole province. This summer's harvest was "almost made with money."
According to the information provided by the Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of Anhui Province to China News Weekly, during the autumn planting last year, Anhui Province suffered the worst continuous drought in Fuqiu in 40 years.
Anhui Province has made great efforts to complete the 42.39 million mu of wheat planting task as scheduled.
During the spring management period, the epidemic also poses a major challenge.
"At that time, the wheat turned green, but we were forbidden to leave the village, the agricultural materials were not available, and the agricultural machinery could not pass normally." Luo Yingli said.
To this end, various parts of Anhui have issued response plans to allow growers to share time and shift to the land, thereby promoting the continuous transformation and upgrading of wheat seedlings in the province.
This year's summer food, the most "expensive" for Anhui is the prevention and treatment of head blight.
Head blight, also known as wheat head rotten, can cause seedling blight and ear rot, posing a major threat to the yield and quality of wheat.
"It takes 7 to 10 days for wheat to head and bloom. During this period, the probability of rain in Anhui is high, creating temperature and humidity conditions for the occurrence of scab." Hu Chenglin, a retired professor at Anhui Agricultural University, told China News Weekly, Chi Mildew is preventable but not curable, and it needs to be sprayed before and after the wheat blooms.
"This is very difficult for farmers to implement, and the benefits are too low, so the government needs to intervene." According to the Anhui Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Anhui’s financial investment in wheat scab prevention this year reached the highest level in history-the province’s fiscal implementation Fiscal funds for mildew prevention and control were 628 million yuan, an increase of 423 million yuan over the previous year.
"People work hard, God helps." Hou Zijian, head of the Planting Management Section of the Agricultural and Rural Bureau of Fuyang City, summed up the reasons for this year's summer grain harvest: First, the weather was good at harvest, and second, enough financial and material resources were invested.
"The total output and unit yield of summer grains doubled to record highs, achieving the '17 consecutive harvests', laying a solid foundation for stabilizing the annual grain production." Anhui Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said.
Regarding the statement of "Seventeen Lianfeng", the aforementioned Anhui media person explained that harvest is a concept that is not strictly defined, and does not necessarily mean an increase in production. It usually refers to a relatively stable production capacity.
Chang Wei, a professor at the Research Center of China’s Agriculture, Rural Areas and Farmers of Anhui University, believes that the status of "Seventeen Lianfeng" and the main producing area of summer grains in Anhui is rooted in its unique natural endowment. Both drought and more than one year ripening, suitable for the growth of various food crops.
"During the Qin and Han Dynasties, the Huaihe River Basin was the country's largest main grain producing area."
Anhui is also a pioneer province in the country's rural reform.
In 1978, Anhui experienced an extraordinary drought that was unprecedented in a century, and 18 farmers in Xiaogang Village, Fengyang implemented the "big contract", which opened the prelude to China's rural reform.
Around 2000, a large amount of arable land was abandoned, and Anhui was designated as the only pilot province for rural tax and fee reform. Until 2005, the country took the lead in abolishing agricultural taxes.
"In 2000, there were too many low-lying land in our village. At that time, the conditions of water conservancy facilities were poor and the harvest was not good." In 2000, Luo Yingli, a native of Yingshang County, Fuyang, contracted 150 acres of land, and has since gradually expanded to 1,200 acres today.
In the past two decades, he has seized the opportunity brought by every policy change in Anhui.
In Luo Yingli's impression, the wheat output has been sluggish for a long time in the first few years of contracting.
In 2005, the wheat yield per mu in Anhui dropped to 10 kg lower than the national average.
At that time, Hu Chenglin, a retired professor of Anhui Agricultural University and a member of the wheat expert group of the former Ministry of Agriculture, wrote to the provincial government and proposed a high-yield wheat production plan with a focus on yield. The goal is to achieve "the province's grain output increased by 5 billion catties in five years."
The plan was subsequently included in Anhui’s “Eleventh Five-Year Plan”. Under the leadership of Hu Chenglin and others, Anhui’s wheat yield hit a record high. During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, wheat production increased by 7.97 billion catties, far exceeding the original set of 5 billion catties. aims.
After years of triumphant advancement, Anhui's total grain output has continuously jumped to a new level, reaching 40.54 million tons in 2019, ranking fourth in the country.
At the same time as the output increased, Anhui wheat gradually formed a structural surplus and encountered new development bottlenecks.
"Quality is a shortcoming. In the past, Anhui wheat had strong gluten and weak gluten. The flour produced by Anhui flour mills always cost 5 yuan less than a bag of Shandong and Henan." Guan Shi, Yingshang County, Anhui Province Guan Shixi, general manager of Flour Products Co., Ltd., told China News Weekly that with the upgrading of the consumption structure, special flours of different gluten levels are needed to make noodles, dumpling wrappers, bread, cakes and other products.
In the past, the wheat varieties grown in Anhui were mixed, and local enterprises could only produce general-purpose flour, which could not meet the needs of the high-end market.
The mismatch between supply and demand caused the unsalable products of enterprises, which caused a chain reaction, which ultimately affected the production efficiency of farmers and brought a crisis to the wheat production in Anhui.
"After the country implemented the purchase of the market, the north and the south are one price, we can't sell others, and the wheat market in northwest Anhui is half-paralyzed." According to Guan Shixi, the local government later convened a meeting of flour companies to collect opinions and finally introduced "high-quality special wheat." The production plan-selected by the enterprise, the agricultural department coordinated the selection of the land, and will be implemented from 2017.
Guan Shixi chose two high-quality special wheat varieties and signed 70,000 mu planting and purchase contracts with 107 local growers. Luo Yingli is one of them.
This summer harvest, Guan Shixi appeared at Luo Yingli's harvesting site.
"One is to supervise him not to confuse the variety, and the other is to be afraid that he will sell it to others. We collect it directly from the site at a price of 1 cent higher than conventional wheat."
"This year's wheat bulk density, grade, imperfect kernels, head blight kernels and other key quality indicators performed extremely well, which is a rare good year in history." Information from the Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of Anhui Province shows that under the bumper summer grain harvest, Anhui has The annual grain production is full of optimistic expectations.
"The overall situation of the wheat harvest has been determined, so what is the situation of rice production, the bulk of the annual grain output?" On July 9, the Anhui Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs wrote in the article "Anhui Province Rice Industry Observation": "Recently, agricultural and rural areas The Ministry’s expert team visited 3 typical counties in Anhui Province, Lujiang County, Huaiyuan County, and Huoqiu County. The survey found that the situation of rice production in Anhui this year is improving, and management will continue to be strengthened in the later period. Stabilizing production and increasing income is not a problem."
Unexpectedly, soon after the survey was over, a flood that almost covered the whole province of Anhui swept across, and the second half of Anhui's grain production was suddenly variable.
The village under the flood "north-south strike"
The road to Hemao Town, Wuwei City, Wuhu was interrupted.
After crossing the Hemao Bridge, the returning villagers were forced to get off the car and jumped across the porch where a dozen extra-large water pipes were laid.
The green paddy field on the left side of the dyke is now a vast ocean, with only scattered telephone poles and roofs out of the water.
This is a low-lying small town with crisscross polders, surrounded by the Xihe and Guogong Rivers, tributaries of the Yangtze River.
On July 19, the town’s 25-kilometer-long Yangtangwei dam broke in many places, and the rising river poured into the polder, flooding nearly 8,000 mu of fertile fields in Hemao Town.
"The last time I was flooded was when the Yangtze River embankment broke in 1954." Zhang Yunjun, a villager in Hemao Community, Hemao Town, has never experienced such a large-scale flood this year.
The day after he evacuated on July 19, he ran back to see and found that his house and the contracted 60 mu of rice had sunk to the bottom.
Since the Three Kingdoms period, Wuhu has built water conservancy projects and built fields around the lake. It is known as the "land of fish and rice in the south of the Yangtze River".
This flood caused Wuhu, especially its subordinate Wuwei City, to face the dilemma of partial grain harvest.
According to the data provided by Wuwei Agriculture and Rural Bureau to China News Weekly, as of August 10, Wuwei City’s planting industry had affected a total area of 601,800 acres, 351,400 acres, and a non-harvest area of 21,700 acres; the farmland water conservancy infrastructure was damaged. Field roads were 209,000 meters, 157,000 meters of irrigation and drainage ditches were damaged, and 687 bridges and culverts were damaged.
"10% of the victims are called'disasters', 30% to 80% of the victims are called'disasters', and more than 80% are called'no harvests'." Ni Wei, deputy director of the Agricultural Unit of Wuwei City Agriculture and Rural Bureau explained.
He told China News Weekly that this year, Wuwei City’s rice planting area is 846,500 mu, including 48,000 mu for early rice, 36,000 mu for double late rice, and 762,500 mu for one-season rice. Based on weighted calculations, the total rice output of Wuwei City this year is expected to be about 36.58. 10,000 tons, a decrease of about 77,200 tons compared with last year’s total output of 443,000 tons.
"This time I went bankrupt and lost everything. I returned to the pre-liberation period overnight." Before the flood, Zhang Yunjun's 60 mu of medium rice had just entered the filling stage.
He did not purchase agricultural insurance, and the cost of more than 30,000 yuan invested this year was in vain.
Today, in Hemao Community, Hemao Town, the house and paddy fields of Zhang Yunjun's family are still soaked in waist-deep water.
According to Zhang Yunjun's estimation, it will take 20 days to return from the water.
There are many tributaries and lakes on both sides of the Neihuai River and the Yangtze River in Anhui Province. The province has more than 2,000 rivers and more than 580 large and small lakes.
Abundant water resources not only nourish the soil, but also bury floods.
During this year's flood season, the water levels of the Yangtze and Huaihe Rivers have risen simultaneously, causing Anhui to "strike between the north and the south".
Li Xiang, director of the Planting Industry Bureau of the Hefei Agriculture and Rural Bureau, described the disaster in Hefei as a "once in a hundred years": "First, the rainy season lasted for 52 days, setting a historical record in Hefei; second, heavy rainfall; third, the water level of Chaohu Lake. A new historical high; fourth, the area affected by the disaster is extremely large.” In order to divert the floods of Chaohu Lake and ease the pressure on urban flood control, Hefei opened the Shibalianwei, Binhulianwei, Jiangkouhelianwei, and Yanhelianwei since July 19th. Over 100,000 people were transferred and resettled in 9 large polders with more than 10,000 mu and 186 small and medium-sized weikou, such as Wei and Peigang Lianwei.
Li Xiang told China News Weekly that 5.5 million mu of rice were planted in Hefei this year, and the affected area reached 2.355 million mu, of which 869,000 mu had no harvest. At present, more than 400,000 mu of paddy fields have not been withdrawn from flooding.
"To find a way for the floods, it means abandoning some fertile fields." Zhu Qing, director of the Chaohu Research Institute, once told the media.
The Huaihe River was also sacrificed for flood release.
In the summer of 1950, a catastrophic flood occurred in the Huai River Basin, and more than 40 million acres of land in Henan and Anhui provinces were flooded.
Today, the Huaihe River governance is still a difficult problem.
Yingshang County of Fuyang City is located at the confluence of Huai River and Ying River. Huai River flows through Yingshang for 78 kilometers. Along the Huai River, there are three flood storage areas of Nanrun Section, Qiujia Lake, and Jiangtang Lake. 42% area.
At 8:32 on July 20, the Huaihe River Wangjiaba opened the floodgates.
In order to ensure the safety of the lower reaches of the Huaihe River, the Nanrun section of the Huaihe River, Qiujia Lake, and Jiangtang Lake in the middle reaches of the Huaihe River successively opened sluices for flood storage.
"We received a notice at 4 in the morning that the water was released at 12 noon, the evacuation started at 5 o'clock, and all evacuation was completed at 8 o'clock in the morning." Luo Yingli said.
On that day, 1,200 acres of rice he had already planted were flooded.
Yingshang County is one of the few places in northern Anhui where rice can be grown.
“Our land is a lake and depression. We didn’t grow rice originally. After I contracted the land in 2000, I began to plant wheat and rice in different seasons.” Luo Yingli said, villagers used to plant soybeans after harvesting wheat in the early years, but because of poor water conservancy conditions , Often encounter flooding.
Later, he made a special trip to the south to learn rice planting, and changed the wheat field after summer harvest into paddy field.
The last time Yingshang County was opened for flood storage was in 2007. Public information shows that in 2007, 1.28 million mu of the 1.6 million mu of arable land in Yingshang County was affected.
"The government gave me a compensation rate of 685 yuan per mu. This year's standard has not yet come down." Luo Yingli said.
After a bumper harvest, floods followed one after another, making Luo Yingli and other growers caught off guard.
He said frankly that every year from the beginning of planting, a heart is always hanging, until the final harvest can be at ease: "Natural disasters are the biggest challenge we face, and agriculture still needs to rely on the weather."
Li Xiang said that in recent years, natural disasters have become more frequent, food production has been very difficult, and farmers' confidence in agricultural investment has weakened.
"2016 was flooded, 2018 was severely snowed, 2019 was severely drought, and this year is flooded again." Li Xiang sighed.
As far as Hefei City is concerned, this year's grain production has actually suffered from the double pressure of drought and flood.
According to a report by the Hefei Daily in June, Hefei City plans to plant 5.5 million mu of rice this spring. Affected by the drought in the autumn and winter last year and the lack of rainfall in April and May this year, the city's reservoirs and dams are seriously insufficient to store water.
"According to preliminary statistics, more than 1 million mu of rice in the city cannot be planted on schedule due to lack of water."
According to official data, as of August 2nd, the affected area of crops in Anhui Province was 18.022 million mu, 11.414 million mu, and 5.553 million mu of non-harvest crops; among them, 9,948,200 acres of rice were affected, 6,734,300 acres were damaged, and 3.5261 million acres were lost. .
The province's agricultural losses due to disasters amounted to 17.49 billion yuan, of which 11.66 billion yuan was in plantation.
Anhui is one of the most severely affected areas in the country this year.
On August 13, Zhou Xuewen, secretary-general of the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters, revealed at a press conference of the State Information Office that this year’s flood disaster caused 6,032.6 thousand hectares of crops to be damaged, of which 1140.8 thousand hectares had no harvest, mainly in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River area.
Autumn grain faces pressure to reduce production
The owner of Xiaoxiong Farm, Shen Xiongwei, born in the 1980s, started his own business in 2016 and contracted to plant more than 900 acres of rice and lotus roots in Kaicheng Town, Wuwei City.
In the first year, there was heavy water, and nearly 500 acres of the 600 acres of rice planted had no harvest.
This year he planted another 400 acres of rice, and was completely flooded, of which more than 150 acres had no harvest.
The flood has been happening for more than a month, and the flood has not completely receded.
Shen Xiongwei squatted on the ridge and fiddled with the grass leaves soaked in the flood.
"This is part of the early rice I planted. After the water receded, I tried to harvest some. The quality is too bad, and the feed is choppy." Shen Xiongwei said.
In order to recover the losses, he resolutely converted 260 acres of single-season rice to late rice, but added additional costs. "Tractors plowing the fields and artificially planting rice seedlings increase the cost by an average of 360 yuan per acre."
"This year's floods have caused serious losses in agricultural production. We must grasp the transformation of seedling conditions on the one hand, and replant the fields without harvesting on the other hand, and do our best to reduce losses and ensure food production." said the person in charge of the Anhui Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.
Hefei City also made it clear that "we must retreat one piece of water, rush to plant one piece, and replant it in place."
The municipal finance shall first allocate 50 million yuan in subsidy funds for the purchase of agricultural materials such as seeds for replanting and replanting required for the restoration of production in planting and facility agriculture.
Li Xiang, director of the Planting Industry Bureau of the Hefei Agriculture and Rural Bureau, told China News Weekly that Hefei has now replanted 457,200 acres, of which 270,000 acres are planted "early and late" rice.
Li Xiang said that early rice can be replaced by late rice before July 25. After this time window, you will be vulnerable to cold dew and wind.
"After the rice is soaked, it's like people are overworked, their immunity is reduced, and they are vulnerable to rice blast, rice planthoppers and other pests." Li Xiang said.
After the catastrophe, "grabbing by insects" is more critical than ever.
Wuhu Wuwei City took precautions and made corresponding preparations before the flood hit.
"Before July 20, we have implemented 100,000 kilograms of'morning and evening' seed sources, 5,000 tons of fertilizer reserves, and 300 tons of pesticide reserves." Ni Wei said.
"When replanting and replanting pay attention to the weather, what we are more embarrassed here is that Chaohu Lake needs to be drained. We are the only way to go. Up to now, there are more than 100,000 mu of farmland soaked in the flood. I don't know when we can make it up." Wei mentioned that the production season of rice, corn and other crops has passed, and Wuwei City's replanting work is struggling step by step.
According to previous media reports, as of August 2, the area of inundated farmland in Anhui Province has not yet returned water to about 3.791,000 mu; the province has implemented a supplementary planting area of 1.554 million mu of crops, of which 926,000 mu has been replanted for late rice, accounting for 26.26% of the area where rice has no harvest.
“We have a total of more than 800 polders flooded, and some polders in the Yangtze River and Huaihe River basins have not been harvested before the early rice has been harvested." Zhou Xuewen, Secretary-General of the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters at the press conference of the State Information Office on August 13 Introduction.
He believes that this year’s floods will not have an impact on my country’s food security. “There is a rule that our country is often a year of abundant water and a year of bumper harvest. Why is there a bumper harvest? Because our country’s water resources are inherently scarce, and there is a lot of water. Resource guarantee conditions are better."
But the situation may not be so simple.
Different voices on the Internet believe that China’s grain harvest in the second half of the year is still facing uncertainty: “In 2003, the Huaihe River was flooded with floods. This year, the national grain output was 430.695.3 million tons, compared with 457.0575 million tons in the previous year and the following year. 469,469,500 tons. Apparently, the grain harvest failed in 2003."
"The situation in the country is hard to say, but for our disaster-stricken areas, a year of flood is a year of catastrophe." said Zhang Yunjun, a planter in Hemao Town, Wuhu City.
The task assigned by the state to Anhui this year is to complete 10.94 million mu of grain sown area and 81.1 billion kilograms of grain output.
According to the information provided by the Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of Anhui Province, in order to ensure that this task is completed on schedule, it will strengthen the territorial responsibility of food production in accordance with the requirements of “protecting the village by the village, the county by the town, the city by the county, and the province by the city” , Implement tasks at all levels.
Li Xiang said that although there were clear mission requirements in previous years, this year is the first time that a production mission document has been issued in clear text.
"The mission document was issued during the epidemic in March. Because of the epidemic, the issue of food rations has been paid more and more attention from the central to the local level. The more difficult times we have, the more we must pay attention to food, and we should focus on food production and detail from a political perspective. To transform the tasks of various districts and counties."
After the flood, the "dual control task" was repeatedly mentioned.
On August 12, Zhang Shuguang, deputy governor of Anhui Province, went to Wuhu to inspect the post-disaster recovery and reconstruction work and emphasized: “We must promptly start the recovery of agricultural production after the disaster, fully mobilize farmers’ enthusiasm for production, ensure farmers’ income and wealth, and ensure the annual grain sown area and grain The "dual control" task of output was successfully completed." In addition, the Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of Anhui Province also issued a notice requesting to ensure that the area of grain after the disaster does not decrease, and the total output does not decrease, and resolutely complete the goal of food production.
The replanting work is still going on in the affected areas in Anhui.
"Our idea is to make up for the losses inside the dike and make up for the loss of autumn crops and autumn crops. In the short-term, we must plan for autumn crops," said Li Xiang.
Luo Yingli's idea coincided with it: it should be replanted and replanted, and it should be rushed for seeding, but the crop has its growth cycle, because the replanting affects the wheat farming time, the gain is not worth the loss. It is better to plant some good wheat in autumn.
Li Xiang estimated that this year's autumn grain production in Hefei will be reduced by 10% to 15%.
Agricultural expert Hu Chenglin believes that the floods will reduce the output of autumn grain in Anhui by about 30%, and autumn grain accounts for the bulk of the annual grain, and Anhui will face pressure to reduce production this year.
"The least willing to sell is the grain station"
Yang Ping, a villager in Yingshang County, Fuyang City, planted more than 20 acres of land and harvested 16,000 catties of wheat this summer.
But he does not intend to sell food for the time being.
After harvesting in previous years, he sold them directly to grain brokers.
If you store your own grain, you need to dry and store it after harvest, which is time-consuming and labor-intensive.
However, this year, including him, almost all the villagers in the whole village have not sold.
"This year is an epidemic and a flood. God won't tell us to sell it for fear that there will be no food." Yang Ping told China News Weekly.
On the other hand, he also said frankly that "I hope the price can be higher."
Unlike previous years when the new grains went on the market, farmers gathered together to sell grains. This year, like Yang Ping, there are not a few people who keep them for their own use or reluctantly sell them.
"Farmers did not have the habit of storing grain in previous years. Because of the epidemic and floods this year, many people think there may be a food crisis, so they want to keep some rations." said Sun Deqing, deputy director of the Fuyang Grain and Material Reserve Bureau.
In addition, according to his knowledge, there is still a large amount of grain in the hands of grain brokers.
Mr. Li, a food broker, confirmed this.
"I was able to collect 10,000 tons last year, but this year I only collected more than 5,000 tons. I sold some, and there are still three to four thousand tons in the warehouse." He bought it at 1.08 to 1.1 yuan this year, and 1.12 to 1.13 yuan. The price is sold, and the remaining grain is ready to be sold. The expected price is 1.23~1.24 yuan.
"It was sold out a long time ago, but this year's situation is special, so I can feel at ease if I have food on hand."
The hoarding behavior of farmers and grain brokers is almost a nationwide phenomenon.
The State Bureau of Grain and Material Reserves disclosed that as of August 5, the country’s cumulative wheat purchases were 42.85 million tons, a decrease of 9.38 million tons year-on-year.
Specifically, Henan’s cumulative wheat purchase was 9.124 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.388 million tons, which was the largest decline; followed by Anhui, where the province’s purchases were 5.929 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.224 million tons.
Why did the summer grain harvest significantly reduce the purchase of wheat?
"China News Weekly" survey found that a considerable proportion of grain is either in the hands of farmers or grain brokers, or flows to the market, but is not included in the statistics.
According to data provided by the Fuyang Grain and Material Reserve Bureau, as of August 20, the whole society of Fuyang had purchased about 1.32 million tons, which was 64,000 tons less than the same period last year; among them, the purchase of state-owned enterprises decreased by 267,000 tons and the policy-related purchases decreased by 22.4 tons. The acquisition of non-state-owned enterprises increased by 203,000 tons.
Policy-based acquisitions consist of local reserve acquisitions and lowest-priced acquisitions.
Among them, the lowest purchase price is also called the support market purchase, which means that when the market purchase price is too low, the government will purchase grain by launching the minimum purchase price execution plan to ensure the interests of the growers.
Anhui initiated the minimum purchase price plan for wheat on June 10, at a price of 1.12 yuan per catty for the third-class standard product.
In this regard, Yang Ping, a grain grower, said that the most unwilling channel to sell is the grain station: “It needs to be accepted and graded. If the quality is unqualified, it will be rejected, which is particularly troublesome. In contrast, I am more willing to sell grain. Traffickers, even if the price is a cent or two lower, because they will come to collect it."
Scholars Kong Lingcong and Li Jing analyzed in the article "Grain Production in Anhui Province in the Context of Food Security" that although the original intention of lowest-price purchases was to protect farmers, it actually restricted food prices and reduced farmers’ income from growing grain. Affect their enthusiasm for growing grain: "In the main grain producing areas... the cost of growing grain has increased rapidly. In contrast, my country’s grain prices have remained relatively stable, and many grain-consuming and purchasing companies have purchased with reference to the lowest purchase price, which is invisible. The actual situation that the current market price of grain is controlled by the lowest purchase price."
"For decades, the price of food has been calculated on the basis of wool, and a pound of grain is not as valuable as a pound of mineral water." Zhang Yunjun, a villager in Hemao Town, mocked himself and said that he is 53 years old this year and is the youngest farmer in the village.
"My husband and I are in the field 300 days a year. There is no way. We will only do this for the rest of our lives. Both of my children are working outside. I don't want them to come back to farm."
Anhui Province is not only a major agricultural province but also a major labor exporting province, with nearly 20 million migrant workers.
At the same time, the aging of the rural population continues to deepen, and "who will farm the land" has become an ancient and realistic question.
However, many interviewees are not worried about this.
They believe that as more and more retail households withdraw, the degree of land intensification will further increase; and growers, especially large growers, will not easily give up growing staple food.
However, according to Hou Zijian, a staff member of the Agriculture and Rural Bureau of Fuyang City, “In recent years, natural disasters have been frequent, and the benefits of growing crops have been very poor. Larger households have returned to farmland. They are not as enthusiastic as in previous years.” To ensure food production, the main output is District local governments have given a large number of financial subsidies, such as food risk funds, agricultural science and technology expenditures, agricultural subsidies, disaster compensation, etc.
"In the past few years, I felt that agriculture was full of hope, and policy subsidies were relatively large. Many urban entrepreneurs who succeeded in blindly invest in rural areas. After investing, they found that it was not the case."
For Shen Xiongwei, the head of the bear farm who came to the countryside to start a business, planting rice is a choice after weighing the pros and cons.
After the flood in 2016, he reduced the rice planting area and expanded lotus roots, trying to make lotus roots the main crop of the farm. Unexpectedly, the lotus roots were unsalable the next year and failed.
"Compared with lotus roots, rice has weak disaster resistance and low economic benefits, but the price and sales channels are covered by the government. In order to balance the risks of starting a business, I will still grow some rice."
The sense of crisis in the province
In recent years, the commodity grain supply capacity of my country's main grain-producing provinces has undergone major changes. The number of provinces with net grain transfer has been reduced from 13 in 2003 to 5 today, and the self-sufficiency rate of the main sales area and the production and sales balance area has been declining.
In this context, Anhui's status as a net transfer province has become more prominent.
“Anhui’s grain output in 2019 was 40.54 million tons. According to the international food security standard of 400 kilograms per person per year, it can feed 100 million people. Based on Anhui’s permanent population of 63.65 million, there is a surplus of 15 million tons. Counting the population of more than 71 million people, there are still 12 million tons.” Chang Wei believes that Anhui’s net transfer of grain is “enough to feed a Zhejiang province or a Shanghai city”. This is where Anhui’s confidence lies.
Both he and his colleague Zhang Deyuan believe that the impact of natural disasters on food supply capacity is somewhat overestimated.
"China has a vast territory. Every year when we talk about bumper harvests, there are local natural disasters, but this year's disasters are relatively deep." Zhang Deyuan believes that Anhui Province, as one of the main grain producing areas, has been affected this year, but from the overall From the above point of view, "it won't be too much trouble, it will still be the province of foreign food transfer."
Hu Chenglin, a retired professor of Anhui Agricultural University, believes that the current grain production in Anhui is still in a state of tight balance, and that "we cannot relax our vigilance at all."
"This summer harvest is close to the normal year, but it is not particularly good. The flooded area of the Jianghuai River is too large, and there are more diseases and insect pests. It is estimated that the autumn grain will be reduced by 30% or even more."
The White Paper “China’s Food Security” issued by the State Council Information Office last year mentioned that China’s grain self-sufficiency rate currently exceeds 95%, but in the medium and long term, China’s grain production and demand will still maintain a tight balance: “From the perspective of demand, with With economic and social development, per capita ration consumption will steadily drop slightly, feed and industrial conversion grain consumption will continue to increase, total grain consumption will increase rigidly, and grain consumption structure will continue to upgrade. From the perspective of the production situation, agricultural production costs are still rising, and the resources and environment bear Capacity is tightening, agricultural infrastructure is relatively weak, and disaster resistance and mitigation capabilities need to be improved. While ensuring green development and sustainable use of resources, there is greater pressure to stably develop food production."
Zhang Deyuan pointed out that in the long run, soil problems constitute a deeper crisis facing Anhui agriculture.
"The continuous guarantee of high yields in the past years is actually the plunder of the land." Chang Wei added that this issue has now been paid attention to, whether it is the implementation of zero growth of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, or the implementation of rotation experiments and the return of platycodon to fields. It is to repair the overused soil.
The soil problem has also been the focus of Hu Chenglin’s recent years: “The bumper harvests in the past years have been won through high inputs such as chemical fertilizers and pesticides. The soil is facing serious pollution.” Recently, he has been busy submitting to the Anhui Provincial Government and agricultural and rural departments. Own solution-a green production-increasing model that reduces the amount of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and seeds, and a "double-hundred project" with the goal of "reducing costs per mu by 100 yuan and increasing output by 100 kg".
The 91-year-old Hu Chenglin is still the watcher of Anhui wheat fields.
He graduated from Nanjing Agricultural College with a major in agronomy in 1953. He has devoted himself to the cause of high-yield wheat for decades, and has also worked in wheat fields for cultivation and production testing.
"Everything is hard, and it has been like this for thousands of years. I hope to live to be 100 years old and witness the moment when the people truly "have food in their hands"."
"This flood disaster reminds Anhui that it must be prepared for danger in times of peace." Hu Chenglin believes that Anhui's existing farmland water conservancy facilities are weak and it is difficult to cope with frequent natural disasters.
The article "Food Production in Anhui Province in the Context of Food Security" also mentioned that according to the relevant classification standards of the Ministry of Agriculture, Anhui Province has a total of 40.94 million mu of low- and medium-yield farmland, accounting for 66% of the total arable land; water conservancy infrastructure is weak and disaster resistance is insufficient. Strong, is an outstanding factor restricting Anhui's stable and increased grain production.
Under the catastrophe, how to accomplish this year's "dual control" task?
Ni Wei of the Wuwei City Agriculture and Rural Bureau said that the higher-level departments will consider local disaster factors in the comprehensive assessment. "The farmers are under greater pressure, and they will have a hard time this year."
(At the request of the interviewee, Zhang Yunjun and Yang Ping are pseudonyms in the article)
China News Weekly, Issue 34, 2020
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