What will happen to the approval rating in the Kan Cabinet September 17, 12:28
Liberal Democratic Party Governor Suga was elected the 99th Prime Minister.
The Kan Cabinet was established with an overwhelming victory in the presidential election, proposing the succession of the Abe Cabinet.
Attention is focused on the approval rating for the first time.
There is widespread belief that the numbers will have a major impact on the timing of the dissolution of the House of Representatives.
I considered the first approval rating of the Kan Cabinet from the approval ratings of successive cabinets.
"Congratulations" to the new cabinet
First of all, I looked back on what was the approval rating when the Cabinet was established in the past in the NHK opinion poll that has been conducted since April 1998.
Please see this table.
In the list of "support rate at the time of inauguration" and "final support rate" of successive cabinets, the number of points above the final support rate of the previous cabinet is shown at the right end.
On the left side of the table, the "final approval rating" at the end of each administration was the lowest at 7% of the Mori Cabinet.
Only the Koizumi Cabinet in 2006 secured 50%, and the other cabinets were generally low at the mid-30% level.
When it becomes the "support rating at the time of inauguration" on the right side, the number changes drastically.
The Obuchi and Mori cabinets, which were established before 2000, remained in the 30% range, but most of the cabinets, which were established after 2001, are at a high level of nearly 60% to 80%.
The Koizumi Cabinet, which boasted "national popularity," reached 81%.
Looking at the "rising points" that indicate the difference between the approval rating at the time of inauguration and the final approval rating of the previous cabinet, all cabinets are raising their approval ratings without exception.
The largest increase was the Koizumi Cabinet, which was established in 2001, and although the final approval rating of the former Cabinet was as low as 7%, it increased by 74 points.
All other cabinets, with the exception of the Mori Cabinet, had an increase of more than 10 points, with an average increase of 34 points.
Even if the actual results are unknown, it is a phenomenon called "congratulatory market" in which expectations for the new cabinet are added.
Then, does the Kan Cabinet have the same congratulations as the successive cabinets?
In the NHK poll, the Abe Cabinet's approval rating was the last at 34%, which was announced 17 days (11th) before the announcement of resignation (August 28).
It was the lowest level in the second Abe Cabinet for nearly eight years due to the slump in the evaluation of the coronavirus's government response.
Strangely, it is at the same level as the last approval rating of the first Abe Cabinet from 2006 to 2007.
If there is a celebration according to past trends, how far will the Kan Cabinet's first approval rating be accumulated from here?
One point to note is that in the opinion polls of the media companies conducted after the announcement of the resignation of former Prime Minister Abe, an unusual phenomenon occurred in which the approval rating of the Abe Cabinet at the end of the administration rose significantly.
Since NHK has not investigated, it is unknown whether the approval rating of the Abe Cabinet has recovered after the announcement of resignation.
If the approval rating had recovered, would it be a number that would clearly congratulate the Kan Cabinet?
Professor Naoto Nonaka of Gakushuin University, who specializes in comparative politics, sees this.
"It is unusual for the cabinet approval rating to rise so much when the prime minister quits due to illness at the end of the administration."
"Compared to other countries such as the United States, which has a strong partisanship, for better or for worse, and the political party has a heavy meaning when making political decisions, the role played by political parties in Japan is weak, and the evaluation of the administration and the prime minister is a policy evaluation. Evaluations that are an extension of human relations and feelings toward humans are more likely to be reflected. Therefore, the approval rating always fluctuates up and down, and things like celebrations are more likely to occur. "
Celebration market with a short expiration date
However, historical data show that honeymoons with voters will not last long, even if they benefit from the celebration market.
It was remarkable during the Democratic Party of Japan administration from 2009 to 2012.
Every year when the prime minister changed, the approval rating of the cabinet jumped from the 60% level to the 70% level, but within a year it plummeted to around 20%.
Professor Nonaka sees that the LDP cabinet is no exception.
"The three LDP prime ministers after Prime Minister Koizumi also had good approval ratings at the beginning, but they fell quickly, and in a year they were fluttering. In fact, with the Prime Minister of the Democratic Party of Japan after that. Almost nothing has changed, and the LDP is not rock solid. In that sense, I don't know what will happen. "
Approval rate and dissolution time
The Kan Cabinet's initial approval rating is drawing attention because there is a view that it will affect the timing of dissolution.
The reference is the Aso Cabinet, which was established in September 2008.
At the time of its inauguration, the term of office of members of the House of Representatives will be one year, and there are many things in common, such as the decision to dissolve or general election immediately after the inauguration.
The Aso Cabinet was seeking to dissolve the House of Representatives while its approval rating was high.
However, the Lehman shock occurred in September 2008, and the stock price plummeted.
Suga, who was the vice chairman of the LDP's election measures at the time, is said to have been cautious about the early dissolution.
Eventually, the dissolution was postponed, and the LDP suffered a historic defeat in the August 2009 House of Representatives election, allowing a change of government.
Perhaps with his own experience in mind, Aso said on September 13th:
"The House of Representatives election will surely take place within a year.
On the other hand, Suga said at the inaugural meeting of the Liberal Democratic Party president on the 14th, "The people's loud voice is that they want the new coronavirus problem to be resolved and that the economy should be revived. I want to work, so I want to make a thorough convergence. It's not like I'll do it as soon as it converges. I want to make a decision while looking at the whole thing. "
The Abe Cabinet has linked the dissolution of the House of Representatives and the general election to the recovery of approval ratings.
In both the 2014 and 2017 House of Representatives elections, the cabinet was lifted by breaking up and winning when the approval rating was about to drop.
What kind of strategy can the Kan Cabinet take?
Professor Nonaka sees this.
"The situation is similar between the Aso Cabinet and the Kan Cabinet in that the remaining term of the House of Representatives is one year, but during the Aso Cabinet, the Liberal Democratic Party caused a serious land subsidence, and the administration for decades was ruined. It was a time when everyone was beginning to feel that it was really going to Shimotsuke. On the other hand, the LDP now has an overwhelmingly high party approval rating and is on a stable ground. "
In the case of "particular election, so be sure the calculation of the relative power relations, opposition organizational skills, and the Aso Cabinet era that had strengthened the solidarity, even now the situation just has risen confluence new party of the opposition different.
Fixed Given that there will be a certain degree of approval rating, there is a possibility that it will be launched early. However, there are conditions such as economic and social conditions and corona, so I think it is a matter of both sides. ”The
Cabinet approval rating that will come out soon.
In response to that number, attention will be paid to how the new administration will move.
(Titles omitted in the text)
* NHK's telephone opinion poll
Currently, the RDD method is used for fixed-line and mobile phones for people aged 18 and over, but the survey method was changed twice in 2004 and 2017.
If the survey methods are different, simple numbers cannot be compared, but rough trends are compared.
Newsroom Election Project Reporter
Joined in 1996.
After working at the Yokohama Station, the Metropolitan Broadcasting Center, and the Public Opinion Survey Department of the Broadcasting Culture Research Institute, he is currently in charge of political awareness surveys.