New Corona Wave 1 Human-to-person contact reduced by 86% due to emergency declaration or September 9 at 4:40
Last April, when the government declared an emergency due to the spread of the new coronavirus, we called for 80% reduction in contact with people, but researchers at Kobe University used mathematical models. As a result of the calculation, I published a paper summarizing that contact during this period was reduced by 86%.
This paper specializes in the analysis of epidemics of infectious diseases using mathematical models and was published in an academic journal by Associate Professor Nori Kuniya of Kobe University.
In the paper, based on the change in the number of new infections every day from April 8th, the day after the government's emergency declaration was issued in the first wave of the new coronavirus, to May 25th, when the declaration was lifted. Using a mathematical model, I calculated how much the contact between people would decrease to such a transition.
As a result, when the “contact rate” that indicates the rate of contact with people was 0.14, it was in agreement with the actual number of infected people, which is 86% less contact between people than usual. It means that it was.
When the declaration of emergency was issued, the government called for "to reduce contact between people by at least 70% and 80% as much as possible" in order to prevent the spread of infection.
Associate professor Kuniya who performed the calculation said, "In the analysis using location information, there was a point that the decrease in the number of people did not reach 80%, but as a whole it seems that contact has been reduced by 80%. If the epidemic becomes critical, we need to reconsider the call."