Is it anti-Trump momentum?

Is the reversal of the comeback coming again?

～US Presidential Election～ September 8th 18:43

In the US presidential election, the republican and democratic party conventions ended, and two months had passed before the vote.

The election campaign looks more like "Trump VS Anti-Trump" than "Trump VS Biden".

The driving force on the part of the Democratic Party is anger and opposition to President Trump.

Anti-Trump's swell is heightened by the spread of the new coronavirus and protests against racism, and Mr. Biden is going to use that momentum to prevent Trump's re-election.

On the other hand, President Trump has shown the strength of his popularity and is aiming for the return of the reversal drama that surprised the world, as he did four years ago.

(Washington Bureau Hideki Yui, Bureau Chief)

Crisis under the Trump administration

Biden, who was formally nominated as a presidential candidate at the Democratic party convention, highlighted the ongoing crisis under the Trump administration.

In relation to the existence of the country, he appealed that he would bring an end to the dark Trump era and bring light.

Former Vice President Biden (Democratic Party)

"The current president has overshadowed the United States in darkness, causing anger, fear and division."

"The worst crisis is ongoing. The worst pandemic of this century, the worst economy since the Great Depression." Crisis, strong appeal for justice against racism, and accelerating threat of climate change"

Mr. Biden is strengthening his commitment to President Trump's responsibility for the spread of the new virus.

It seems that it has been set as the biggest issue in the presidential election following the public criticism of President Trump's response.

"The president failed to take measures without listening to the opinions of experts. He is responsible for over 180,000 deaths and the economic collapse," he accuses.

Mr. Biden has been following the swell of anti-Trump.

National polls have consistently led President Trump over the past six months with approval ratings.

There is a number, but there is no enthusiasm

However, it is said that Biden's supporters are said to have low enthusiasm even if the approval rating is high.

Most of them are rallying because they don't like President Trump, rather than actively supporting him.

This is in contrast to President Trump, who is supported by enthusiastic people, who are also known as bedrock supporters.

It can be seen from polls.

Mr Biden finally won the primary election for the Democratic presidential candidate, but the victory was dangerous.

Although the poll had the highest approval rating in prior public opinion polls, there were surprisingly few experts who predicted in advance that they would be elected as presidential candidates because they were criticized as "old politicians" and "no freshness".

It can be said that it was so unattractive.

However, Mr. Biden's greatest strength is that he is not a dislike.

In the last presidential election, many voters said that neither Mr. Trump nor Mr. Clinton liked it, and it was said that "a battle between hated people".

Although there are few enthusiastic fans, Mr. Biden, who is not disliked, may be widely accepted by the people as an anti-Trump saucer.

The Democratic Party has such an aim.

Persistent playing card popularity

Criticism of President Trump over the new virus also increased within the Republican Party.

This May, a "Republican voters' group against Trump" was formed.

On that website, as of September 1, 660 Republicans sent a video message explaining why they were disappointed with President Trump.

However, according to polls (Gallup), Trump's approval rating within the Republican Party is still high at 90%.

There has been no significant change since the beginning of this year, and the view that Trump's popularity within the Republican Party remains strong is dominant.

why.

It has been pointed out that those who oppose President Trump have left the Republican Party and that all that remains in the party is Trump supporters, but mostly because President Trump has steadily implemented the policies that Republican supporters demand. The view.

Large tax cuts, conservative nomination of judges, Israeli policies, and clear opposition to abortion.

Among them, there are quite a few responses that the successive presidents have forgotten, saying "to deepen the division of the nation" and "to cause repulsion of the international community".

It can be said that President Trump, who took action without hesitation, has won the hearts of Republican supporters as the president of "execution in words", for better or worse.

Trump's label

In addition to the “appeal of achievements”, President Trump's strategy of reversing is the thorough criticism of the Democratic Party.

In the nomination acceptance speech at the Republican convention, he said, "If Mr. Biden becomes the president, the country will collapse."

I'm good at sticking labels.

These labels are by no means accurate.

The Biden camp is vehemently rebutting the lie.

But "it's enough to have the effect of shifting the focus of elections," said Republican officials.

According to the person concerned, the aim is to restore the composition of the election from "Trump VS Anti-Trump" to the original form of "Trump VS Biden".

If voters' attention shifts to Biden's or Democratic's policies, those who once disliked President Trump will have the opportunity to rethink "Is Biden really better?"

If that happens, it may be possible to regain support from the moderate Republican and independent parties.

The effective way to do this is to advertise the Democratic Party as a "radical leftist" and instill a dangerous image.

President Trump himself has adopted the slogan of "law and order" and has consistently defended the position of the police in the matter of racism, and has emphasized a strong image of a leader who protects safety.

In fact, there is a desire to lead to the acquisition of female votes.

Women living mainly in the suburbs are highly concerned about security issues, and many are concerned about rising crime rates in urban areas.

Surprisingly, the faction is also looking forward to winning black votes.

Many black people support the Democratic Party, but many have conservative ideas that place importance on social stability.

Black and female figures were also conspicuous among the speakers who spoke at the Republican convention, but a Republican official said, ``I feel that the Republican Party is never a white party, and it would be successful if the Democratic Party deprived the Democrats of any votes of black and female. ".

Trump style "Dub board election"

President Trump is also keen on visiting war-torn states and talking directly to voters.

In a sense, the Trump-style “blank board election” is aimed at encouraging the supporters of themselves and spreading the enthusiasm for the election.

Originally, the Democratic Party was more active in the steady election campaign.

He has appealed for support in door-to-door visits to each voter's home.

However, the movement of the Democratic Party has changed completely due to the spread of the new virus, and it has become an online center.

Mr. Biden did not hold a large-scale rally, but sent online from the basement of his home.

Initially, at the Democratic Party convention, it was scheduled for a nomination acceptance speech in the state of Wisconsin, but eventually he gave up.

Although Mr. Trump had a close win in the last election, the state was a state that the Democratic Party had won for more than 20 years before, and for the Democratic Party, it is an important state that must be recaptured this time.

However, Mr. Biden did not visit the site and, conversely, President Trump, Vice President Pence, and the sons of President Trump entered the state one after another, and proclaimed.

“The Democratic Party disregards Wisconsin. Not the Republican Party.”

In order to counter this, Mr. Biden also announced that he will start visiting the hot battle states after the party convention.

However, the frequency is less than that of President Trump and Vice President Pence.

Also, it is not a large-scale rally organized by the Trump camp, and there are many events limited to participants with an emphasis on new virus measures.

A Democratic party official said, "Many of the Democratic supporters are concerned about the spread of the virus. It is not good to hold a large-scale rally."

The final battle

There are sayings that are often used in the US presidential election.

Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line.

"Democrat supporters

fall in love

(with candidates) and

　Republican supporters keep pace with (candidates)."

Looking at past elections, it is said that in the case of the Democratic Party, when Carter, Clinton, and Obama, supporters led the election to "fall in love with the candidate."

But Biden doesn't look like that.

However, Democratic Party officials are confident that "this saying is wrong now."

"The election is a vote of President Trump's confidence. This time, anger is stronger than love," he said.

On the other hand, the Trump camp wants to reverse the situation at once in three TV debates held in September and October.

We think that the debate, which will be a place of a direct confrontation between President Trump and Mr. Biden, is a great opportunity to solidify the composition of "Trump VS Biden" instead of "Trump VS Anti-Trump".

Part of the presidential election has already begun postal voting, and it has entered the border.

Mr. Biden holds the lead in the national approval rating, but President Trump is catching up as the difference in the approval rating in the critical battle states is narrowing.

The battle between the two parties will become more fierce, including slander of the other party, and it is expected that the postal voting, which is expected to increase significantly, will confuse the voting.

This election is likely to be an unprecedented battle.

Hideki Yui,

Bureau Chief of the Washington Bureau

Joined the company in 1994.

During the 2003 Iraq War, he served in the US Army and reported the war situation from the field.

After working in the Washington office, China General Office, Islamabad office, etc., he worked again at the Washington office in 2016.

From June 2018 to the bureau chief.