Until recently, Belarus was one of the main components of the Ukrainian economy.

It was from its neighbors that Kiev could buy Russian energy resources at low prices.

And for the collapsing Ukrainian budget, this was very significant.

In addition, Russia, and by no means Europe, still remains the main sales market for Ukrainian products, but direct trade in conditions of almost completely severed economic ties is impossible.

Therefore, the problem was solved at the expense of transit through Belarus.

And, finally, flights from the Minsk airport made it possible for hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian migrant workers to fly to Russia to work.

By the way, the money sent by Ukrainians home from Russia and European countries is the driving belt of the Ukrainian economy.

Thus, based on purely pragmatic considerations, Kiev should not have openly opposed Alexander Lukashenko on the side of the protesters after the presidential elections, since this would immediately affect the entire complex of economic relations.

But when it comes to a common struggle against the main enemy - Russia (and this is exactly how - and, in general, rightly so - the Ukrainian radicals assess the main goal of the Belarusian "Maidan"), no economic calculations are taken into account.

The revolution does not feed, it clears the way for a better future, which should sweep away the hated Lukashenka’s regime and pave the way for European integration.

As a result, the Ukrainian leadership decided to duplicate the decisions made in Europe, and even outstrip it in some ways.

In addition, it has once again played along with the radical nationalist camp, which dreams of exporting the revolution from Ukraine to Belarus.

The results of the elections were not recognized by the Ukrainian authorities, and Ukraine was the first to pause diplomatic relations with its neighbors, recalling its ambassador from Minsk.

It is worth noting that, apart from the Baltic countries, all the main EU members have decided not to impose sanctions against the Lukashenka regime.

This is the position of Germany, France and Italy.

It is based on the hope that the Belarusian ruler can still return to a multi-vector policy, the essence of which boils down to playing on the contradictions between the West and Russia.

It would seem that Ukraine should, as always, closely follow the movements of the European conductor's baton, but for Ukrainian radicals such restraint is unacceptable.

For them, the Belarusian unrest is a weapon against Russia, which means that no brakes are working anymore.

Ukraine's assistance to the Belarusian opposition already includes a whole package of various measures.

Ukrainian political strategists, journalists, political scientists, and PR specialists who have become skilled on the fronts of the information war with Russia can share (which they are doing) their invaluable experience with their Belarusian colleagues.

In Kiev, appropriate training manuals are being drawn up, training courses and trainings for fighters for present and future information campaigns are organized.

Poland and the EU have allocated significant funds to support the Belarusian opposition.

Part of this money went to the capital of Ukraine.

But the most important thing is not even ideology, but concrete assistance in inciting unrest.

The gradually fading protests can still receive an additional impetus only in one case - if they manage to infuriate the Belarusian OMON and provoke clashes that will lead to the death of people on both sides.

Exactly according to the scenario of the Ukrainian "Maidan" of 2013-2014.

This requires specialists in the use of the most harsh and uncompromising violence.

And there are more than enough of them in Ukraine.

Veterans with military experience, adhering to extreme nationalist views, are able to transfer the confrontation in Belarus into a phase of bloody massacre.

Two days ago, the Russian Foreign Minister told about the penetration of Ukrainian militants into Belarus.

“There is also

Stepan Bandera


Trident *, there is C14, there is the National Corps, there is the Right Sector ** (organizations banned in the Russian Federation).

All these structures are actively involved in provoking radical actions in Minsk and other cities of Belarus, ”said Sergei Lavrov.

In total, 200 military experts arrived from Ukraine, he said.

It may seem that this is not enough, but let us remember the snipers on the Ukrainian Maidan, who opened fire both on law enforcement officers and on the protesters.

There were several of them.

The head of the Russian Foreign Ministry also pointed out that Russia does not intend to put up with attempts to blow up the situation and will suppress the actions of Ukrainian radicals.

Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced concrete assistance to the Belarusian authorities.

So, the Belarusian security forces are well informed about the intentions of the guests from Ukraine, which means that preventive measures have already been taken to prevent their participation in the riots.

The organizers and the most active protesters from among Belarusian citizens were detained in the first days of the protest.

There is no doubt that a similar fate will befall the assistants from Ukraine.

But what if they realize that the situation is extremely unfavorable for them, and consider it good to go home?

* "Trident them.

Stepan Bandera ”is a Ukrainian organization recognized as extremist and banned on the territory of Russia (decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of 11/17/2014).

** "Right Sector" is a Ukrainian association of radical nationalist organizations, recognized as extremist and banned on the territory of Russia (decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of 11/17/2014).

The author's point of view may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.