Experts and politicians have long argued that the Russian leadership will not allow events in Belarus to develop according to the Ukrainian scenario, since this state is an outpost on the western border. If Belarus changes its foreign policy orientation, the North Atlantic bloc will be able to move from its side a few hundred kilometers closer to Russia. But the Russian president has shown restraint. Even when Alexander Lukashenko said that there was already an agreement to provide assistance, Vladimir Putin was silent.
And then he spoke. He confirmed that indeed a force resource has been formed in Russia, which will be used in the event that the Belarusian law enforcement agencies begin to lose control over the situation. The head of the Russian state explained what this means. Under the guise of political slogans, extremist elements are beginning to "simply robbery": they are burning cars, houses, banks, and trying to seize administrative buildings.
The legal basis for providing assistance, according to Vladimir Putin, is the mutual obligations that Russia and Belarus have in the framework of two treaties: on the Union State and Collective Security (CSTO). The relevant articles make it possible to use the opportunities available to each country to protect the sovereignty of the ally state, its external borders and maintain internal stability.
Putin's statements caused shock both in the West and in the self-proclaimed headquarters of the Belarusian opposition. For some reason, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said that Russia should abandon its obligations to Belarus. They say that sending Russian security officials to ensure order in Belarus would be a “hostile act”, a violation of international law and human rights. It is extremely curious to know how Warsaw would react if Moscow called on Poland to abandon its obligations in the framework of relations with the EU or the United States.
In general, Vladimir Putin noted that Russia is much calmer about the events in Belarus than external forces trying to influence the situation in their own interests: “In my opinion, we behave much more restrained and neutral in relation to the events in Belarus than many other countries - both Europeans and Americans. " The reaction of the Poles is an excellent illustration of this thesis.
The Belarusian opposition in its statement accused the Russian leadership of forgery. Allegedly, "the basis for the use of the CSTO mechanisms is an exclusively armed attack." This is pure lies. Article 2 of the treaty provides grounds for providing assistance in the event of not only external aggression, but also a threat to stability within the country. The same applies to the treaty on the Union State, in which it is written in black and white that the goal of both Russia and Belarus is "to ensure the security of the Union State and to fight crime."
We open the criminal codes and see if arson, robbery and seizure of administrative buildings qualify as criminal acts.
In all likelihood, a new agreement will be needed for the interaction of the power structures of the two countries, since the aforementioned agreements do not spell out the functionality of joint actions. But these are purely technical things that will be decided along the way. What is important is that for the first time the Union State, to which Lukashenka put a spoke in its wheels for a long time, has turned from a virtual project into a real union of Russia and Belarus. And this superstructure will definitely be used in order to extinguish the "color revolution" kindled from outside.
The Belarusian president, squeezed into a corner, had no choice but to give the green light to the unifying initiative, which he himself once launched, and later began to hinder it in every possible way. And this is just the first step. The only way for the Belarusian ruler to stay in power is to follow this path to the very end and thus consolidate pro-Russian forces in his country for his own support.
The author's point of view may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.