Alexander Lukashenko, against the backdrop of opposition protests, began to command respect for his amazing resilience, readiness to stand to the end. His situation seems to be highlighted by the story of Viktor Yanukovych - weakness and political lack of will cost him his power, and could have cost his life. The Lord saved.
Belarusian differs from the Ukrainian "Maidan" very significantly. First of all, the opposition in Belarus is not so united, radicalized, and its number is much lower. In addition, the attempts to confront the riot police by force did not produce any meaningful result, only discredited the protest, which was initially declared peaceful and non-violent. Sunday's march “March of New Belarus”, to which people were called to Minsk from all provincial cities to create a shock fist, was to be a decisive event. According to the organizers, he could finally break through a breach in Lukashenka's defense.
Why did Alexander Grigorievich appear with his son in public in military uniform and with weapons? A military expert from Minsk, Alexander Alesin, claims that on Sunday the opposition was preparing to seize the presidential residence, but because of the disconnected Internet, they did not receive a signal from Poland to start the assault and were forced to disperse. According to Alesin, there were militants behind the backs of the peaceful protesters, ready to use force against riot police and riot police. They were going, following the example of their Ukrainian colleagues, to arm themselves with crowbars, shovels and use them in street battles. Actually, in the regions that border on Poland - Brest, Grodno, Gomel - attempts have already been made to seize government buildings. They had no success.
The protest is clearly declining, and the opposition, in order not to finally let go of the initiative, can translate it into the format of a forceful confrontation. Next weekend, Belarusian experts believe, the opposition may decide to take forceful actions, but the likelihood that they will be successful is small. Lukashenka has enough strength to neutralize such actions. And this is not only the riot police, the police and the Internal Security Service. The Defense Ministry had warned before Sunday's march that in the event of a violation of order, the protesters would "no longer deal with the police, but with the army."
It is already obvious that the Belarusian events put an end to the list of “color revolutions”. Of course, Old Man will continue to be pumped, but there is no trace of that favorable context that was in Ukraine in Belarus. First, the support from the West turned out to be far less significant. The EU behaved surprisingly carefully, refraining from any serious sanctions against Lukashenka and his entourage. There is a very simple explanation for this. The position of Russia, which made it clear that it would not allow a coup d'etat in a brotherly country, became the main deterrent.
The EU has no chance of winning a victory over Moscow on the Belarusian field. And the United States in general has withdrawn from participation in the conflict, possibly by delegating some powers to Warsaw.
Among other things, there was no widespread betrayal by politicians, civil servants or security officials in Belarus. The president has complete control over the entire state apparatus. It is also extremely important that the country's social structure is fundamentally different from the Ukrainian one. "Maidan" in Kiev was the work of the true masters of the state - the oligarchs. In Belarus, as in Russia, big business is "equidistant" from power.
And the most important aspect of the problem is the lack of serious public support for the protest. Also for obvious reasons. The Belarusians, looking at the Ukrainian experience, well understand what the victory of the "Maidan" is leading to. Chaos, poverty, war, collapse of industry, seizure of the political agenda by nationalists. Even in spite of the fact that Lukashenka, to all appearances, is tired of part of the population, nobody wants to exchange stability for his departure here. The president is perceived as a lesser evil in comparison with the catastrophe that could result from the victory of the opposition. Summarizing all that has been said, it can be argued that the Belarusian "Maidan" became the first "color revolution" that did not work out.
The author's point of view may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.