"Unusual summer" Serious reality seen from big data 20:47 August 20

I think that many people around the world have refrained from going out due to the spread of the new coronavirus. We wanted to know how much it actually decreased, and explored with big data. Looking at the data that shows the movement of people during the period including Obon, we can see a serious reality that cannot be expressed simply by the word "reduced."
On the other hand, detailed analysis revealed some hints for the future.
(Keijiro Saito, Reporter, Social Affairs Department/ Masato Morita, Yoshihiro Shinohara, Director, Network News Department)

What is big data analysis?

In the first place, how can we investigate changes in the movement of people?
The big data of mobile phones can be analyzed.

The number of mobile phones is known for each base station, and when combined with information on the owner's residence, it is possible to estimate where and how many people came from.
This time, we analyzed using the data of NTT Docomo's 80 million mobile phones nationwide. (*Privacy information is protected)

The decline of Koshino-no-bon

The target of analysis is the period (8th to 16th August) including the Bon Festival in August when there are many people moving.
We estimated the average number of people in the daytime for each prefecture per hour compared to the same period last year (August 10 to 18).

As a result, the number of people who migrated across prefectures declined in all prefectures, falling to a national average of 61% over the same period last year.

Looking at the number of people coming in from other prefectures by prefecture, the largest decrease was in Akita prefecture, which was 33% last year.
Niigata Prefecture was 37%, Aomori Prefecture was 39%, Okinawa Prefecture was 40%, and so on.
For regions where there are many areas far from metropolitan areas and many people are involved in transportation and tourism, I think that the data is extremely severe only during a year of earning.
On the other hand, the amount of decrease was relatively small in the big cities and their surroundings.
In Nara prefecture, 85% last year, Saitama prefecture 79%, Kanagawa prefecture 77%, Wakayama prefecture 76%.
(*Proportion of all prefectures is posted at the end of the article)

If you look closely, there are places that have increased

Actually, you can see big data not only by prefecture but also by every 500 meters square.

We decided to do the same analysis for each tourist spot where people gather. The data of the tourist spots of the Japan Tourism Promotion Association were overlaid on the big data, and the places with few people were excluded from the analysis. (*1) When
we analyzed in detail about 6000 tourist destinations nationwide, including leisure facilities, beaches, museums, museums, and parks, we found surprising results. There were 1238 "increased tourist areas". (*2)

Unexpected! The reason for the increase

I interviewed what it was all about.
The analysis result that it increased four times last year was around Lake Chuzenji in Okunikko, Tochigi Prefecture.

It is known as the Kegon Falls and autumn leaves.
Looking at the breakdown, first, the number of people outside the prefecture increased 3.5 times last year. The number of people in the prefecture increased by 4.3 times.
When I interviewed a local ryokan, the number of guests in the prefecture actually increased, and there were places where the number of guests was three times that of last year.
A person in charge of the Tourism Exchange Division of Tochigi Prefecture explained that the prefecture's efforts had a certain effect.

Tochigi Prefecture Tourism Exchange Division Tourism Promotion Group Yuki Koike Team Leader
“In Tochigi Prefecture, since June, we have been providing accommodation assistance for residents up to 5000 yen. Including future reservations, 85% of the residents will stay. Is using the subsidy, which seems to have stimulated tourism demand in the prefecture."

In Tochigi Prefecture, from this month, we have begun subsidizing car rental fees as a means of transportation for people outside the prefecture to avoid contact with an unspecified number of people.
The person in charge said, "It is premised on calling on users and tourist facilities to take thorough countermeasures against infections, but it is also important to take the initiative and protect the economy of the tourist area."

How to balance tourism and infection prevention

There are some tourist destinations that are believed to have increased in tourists from other prefectures.

It is near Amanohashidate, one of the three scenic spots in Japan in Miyazu City, Kyoto Prefecture.
It is estimated to have increased 1.3 times from last year.
Looking at the data, it was a 1.3-fold increase from Kyoto prefecture, while it was a 1.5-fold increase from other prefectures.
When I interviewed Miyazu City to find out what was happening, there was a tourism promotion plan that combines local characteristics with infection control measures.

First, while the local government closed the beach, Miyazu City opened the beach because the sandy beach is long and it is difficult to close it.
We also increased the number of observers calling for infection prevention so that people can use the service with peace of mind.

The other is a fireworks event held on holidays and public holidays by the city and local inns. To avoid crowding tourists, we decided not to inform the launch site in advance and set the time to 5 minutes.
While the fireworks festivals in various places are being cancelled, this fireworks is also attracting people from other prefectures.

In a difficult tourist spot

But overall it's been declining and many are in trouble.

One of these, Kanagawa Prefecture, has forgotten the opening of all beaches.
The area around the Katase coast of Fujisawa City, which is right next to Enoshima, includes not only the coast but also major national roads and aquariums, so it is estimated that it has decreased 14% from last year.
According to the association that manages the local beaches, the number of people on the beach has dropped significantly, about one-third of what it used to be.

Leisure facilities that remain in trouble

The situation remains even more severe at large leisure facilities with many users in the Tokyo metropolitan area.

The number of Spa Resort Hawaiians in Iwaki City, Fukushima Prefecture was estimated to have decreased by 73% compared to last year, with a breakdown of 43% from within the prefecture, and a decrease of 84% from outside the prefecture.
We publicize that we are thoroughly implementing infection prevention measures, but that means that we are in the process of studying how to recover users in the future every day.

The trend of decreasing people's mobility continues Tailor-made measures

Noriko Yagasaki, a professor at Tokyo Women's University who is familiar with analysis and promotion measures for the tourism industry, said that the recent trend is to travel to nearby places, especially in places with low risk of infection such as outdoors, Pointed out.

Noriko Yagasaki, Professor, Tokyo Women's University
“This trend is expected to continue. It will be one month after the start of “Go To Travel”, but it will not only be a uniform promotion measure for the country, but will also attract people nearby including neighboring prefectures. In order to do so, it is necessary to take tailor-made measures that match the actual conditions of each tourist destination. I think it is also important to firmly sell the infection countermeasures that travelers value as an added value.”

In addition, Mr. Yagasaki points out:

Noriko Yagasaki, Professor, Tokyo Women's University
"The removal of Tokyo by Go To has a great impact on tourist destinations across the country, and as this trend continues, Tokyo will be included in the campaign target while assessing the infection situation and countermeasures. We also need to consider that.''

It has been almost half a year since the number of people refraining from sightseeing, traveling, and returning home has increased due to the spread of the new coronavirus.
Despite uncertainties, employment and local economies are likely to remain very difficult. I would like to continue searching for hints on how to proceed with tourism and infection control through data analysis and data collection.

*1 We
excluded tourist destinations with a small estimated number of people (less than 1,000 people) and tourist destinations that are likely to have a large impact, such as residential areas, so that they are not easily affected by the error.
*2
Based on the advice of experts, taking into account that the estimation may have some errors, "where the estimated number of people has increased by 10% or more" is defined as "increased tourist area" and "decreased by 10% or more" "Tokoro" was changed to "Reduced tourist area".

Keijiro Saito, Reporter, Social Department

Masato Morita, Director, Network News Department

Yoshihiro Shinohara, Director, Network News Department