Chinanews client, Beijing, August 14 (Peng Jingru) As the property market continues to pick up, the central government has repeatedly emphasized "no speculation in housing and housing" over the past month, and many places have successively introduced tightening policies for the property market. How effective is it?
On August 14, the July 70 city housing price data released by the National Bureau of Statistics handed in the answer sheet. "The real estate market prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities were generally stable, and the sales price of commercial residential buildings fell back from the previous month."
Data map: real estate. Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Bin
First-tier and second-tier cities housing prices fell
Since the recovery of the real estate market, the month-on-month increase in housing prices in 70 cities has generally expanded in April, May and June. But in June, the price of new and second-hand houses in first-tier cities dropped from the previous month. The month-on-month decline in housing prices in July extended to second-tier cities.
In July, the price of new homes in 4 first-tier cities rose by 0.5% month-on-month, and the increase was 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.8% and 0.6% respectively. The price of second-hand housing increased by 0.7% month-on-month, and the increase was 0.3% lower than the previous month. Among them, Beijing remained flat, while Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose 0.5%, 1.6% and 1.2% respectively.
The price of new houses in 31 second-tier cities increased by 0.5% month-on-month, and the increase was 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous month; the sales price of second-hand housing increased by 0.5% month-on-month, the same as last month. The sales prices of new and second-hand houses in 35 third-tier cities rose 0.8% and 0.5% month-on-month, respectively, the same as the previous month.
"The sales price of newly-built commercial housing and second-hand housing in all tiers of cities has fallen or the same as last month." Kong Peng, chief statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, concluded.
Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst at the Shell Research Institute, believes that the narrowing of price increases is due to the release of demand for home purchases from June to July entering a period of decline. With the decline in transactions, the average price increase momentum has gradually lost. On the other hand, the central government reiterated that "housing and housing should not be speculated." In July, many regulatory measures were increased, and market expectations have fallen and housing prices have narrowed.
Zhang Bo, Dean of 58 Anju Guest House Property Research Institute, said that from the perspective of recent control measures, demand-side and land-side policies continue to increase, adjust market irrational housing demand, and accelerate land supply in some cities and regions.
The sales price index of newly built commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities in July 2020. Screenshot from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics
Yinchuan new house gains lead for three consecutive months
The analysis shows that the number of cities with rising new house prices stopped rising in July after rising for four consecutive months. In July, the number of cities where new houses increased was 59, a decrease of 2 from the previous month; there were 6 cities that fell, a decrease of 1 from the previous month.
According to data from the Shell Research Institute, in June and July, the total real-time transaction volume of second-hand housing in 18 key cities fell by about 15% from the peak in May. In July 18 cities, the proportion of owners’ price increases in 10 cities fell. The price increase accounts for less than 20%.
According to analysis by Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, housing prices in most cities are still rising, but the rate of increase has narrowed significantly compared to June. On the whole, the current housing prices are still at a high level, but the trend has obviously risen and fallen.
"The market's popularity has declined, but the overall level is still at a relatively high level." Chen Xiao, an analyst at the Zhuge Finding Data Research Center, also believes that "the average price increase of new houses in 70 cities in July was 0.47%, which was 0.11 percentage points lower than the previous month. Among them, Shenzhen, which has tightened controls on the property market, rose 0.6%, which was 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month. However, the price of second-hand housing in Shenzhen rose 1.2%, and the growth rate narrowed by 0.7 percentage points, still leading other first-tier cities.
Data map: A certain real estate project attracts many buyers to come to "buy houses". Photo by Tang Yanjun issued by China News Agency
It is worth noting that Yinchuan became the city with the fastest house price increase in July. From a month-on-month comparison, Yinchuan's new house housing prices have risen first in the country for three consecutive months. In terms of year-on-year growth, the price of new houses in Yinchuan has risen first in the country for two consecutive months.
"The upward pace of the Yinchuan property market is slower than that of the whole country, and also slower than that of neighboring cities such as Xi'an and Lanzhou. The current potential for housing demand is actively released, which objectively makes prices easy to rebound." Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, believes that in the eastern hot spots When urban housing prices are under control, some non-core second-tier cities also need to actively control housing prices.
According to a report from the Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center, in July, the top ten cities in the new home index ranking were: Yinchuan, Xuzhou, Tangshan, Wuxi, Jinzhou, Jining, Dandong, Huizhou, Chengdu, Xi'an; second-hand housing index In the ranking of rising cities, Guangzhou, Hangzhou and Shenzhen are among the top three.
Over 15 cities may tighten property market regulation
"The first half of 2020, when the real estate regulation is the most relaxed, has passed, and tightening of regulation is inevitable. It is expected that at least more than 15 cities will introduce real estate policies with different tightening strengths recently." Zhang Dawei said.
Since July, there has been a turning point in real estate regulation. More than 10 cities including Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Zhengzhou, Dongguan, Nanjing, Ningbo, and Changchun have issued various types of tightening policies. Among them, cities such as Shenzhen have issued multiple tightening policies.
Recently, one month after Ningbo tightened the regulation of the property market, Ningbo once again attacked the chaos in the property market. On August 10, the Ningbo Municipal Housing and Urban-rural Development Bureau announced that it will carry out a three-month special rectification of the real estate market from now on to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
On August 13, Sanya also announced that it would launch a special rectification of the real estate market. The rectification action targets the false propaganda discovered in the real estate market during and after the supervision, letters and visits, complaints, unapproved pre-sales, bundled sales, arbitrary charges by intermediary agencies, and buyers providing false social security or individual tax fraud to obtain purchase qualifications, avoiding purchase restrictions, etc. problem.
Data map: A real estate project in Hainan Province. Photo by Luo Yunfei
“Recently, Sanya and other cities have actively implemented real estate order management and control, which is helpful to the stability of housing prices, but housing prices are indeed easy to rebound.” Yan Yuejin said that at this time, it is necessary to stabilize the transaction order. For example, after the recent deed tax law was released, various policies were misunderstood. There are many situations, and the phenomenon of housing speculation has appeared in some places. This is the content of the property market regulation and control.
"From the perspective of specific cities, after the rapid tightening of urban policies in Shenzhen, Ningbo and other cities that overheated the housing market, the increase in housing prices has significantly narrowed. However, the market in Tangshan, Yinchuan and other cities is still hot, and the increase in housing prices remains high, which may become the focus of the next step. "Said Zhao Jinxin, a macro analyst at Minbank Think Tank.
Xu Xiaole predicts that in August, housing prices in key cities will have a high probability of narrowing or even falling slightly as market transactions and expected further declines. (Finish)