(Fighting New Coronary Pneumonia) Hong Kong medical experts estimate that the epidemic will continue to decline, and the effective reproduction number will be reduced to 0.3 squares under control
China News Service, Hong Kong, August 11 (Reporter Han Xingtong) After the single-day number of confirmed cases in Hong Kong fell back to double digits for 8 consecutive days, it fell to 33 on the 11th. A Hong Kong medical expert estimated during an interview with a reporter from China News Agency on the 11th that the number of confirmed diagnoses this week will continue to decline. If the effective number of virus reproduction can be further reduced to 0.3, the epidemic will have a chance to be controlled in the next two to three weeks. .
The third wave of local epidemics broke out in early July, and then doubled and increased within two to three weeks. From July 6th to 12th, an average single day increased by about 28 cases. However, from July 27th to August 2nd, The weekly average has quadrupled to about 125 cases. In response to the rapid development of the epidemic, the SAR government has held press conferences at least six times, announcing the tightening of gathering restrictions, exemption arrangements, catering industry regulations, etc., and has extended relevant epidemic prevention measures several times.
"Now we can see that these measures are basically effective," said Liang Zichao, chairman of the Infectious Disease Advisory Committee of the Hong Kong Medical Association, when interviewed by a reporter from China News Service.
The most stringent anti-epidemic measures-the limit on the number of people gathered is tightened to 2 people, masks must be worn in all indoor and outdoor public places, and dine-in is prohibited throughout the day (later changed to ban on dine-in in the evening city). After taking effect on July 29, 8 During the week from 3rd to 9th, the average single-day number of confirmed diagnoses dropped from the peak of about 125 cases in July to about 81.4 cases. And since August 3, the single-day diagnosis remained at double digits for 9 consecutive days, and the number fell further to 33 on the 11th.
Liang Zichao believes that the number of single-day diagnoses this week will maintain a downward trend. He also mentioned that since the current testing capabilities have been greatly improved, the most urgent task is to further reduce the time between the onset of symptoms and the diagnosis of a confirmed person to 3 days, and the time from receiving the test to receiving the report to within 1 day, thereby speeding up all follow-ups. Work, such as finding cases, tracing the transmission chain, implementing isolation, etc.
Liang Zichao said that this method should be used to replace the purely social distancing measures to suppress the epidemic. "It is not difficult to see from the past experience of foreign and local countries that if we simply rely on maintaining social distancing, once the relevant measures are slightly relaxed, there will be a rapid rebound in a short period of time." Therefore, the SAR government must learn a lesson from finding the source and tracing contacts. Only by doing so can we prevent a rebound in the future.
He believes that if the above measures continue to take effect, the source of community transmission can be controlled as soon as possible, and the effective reproduction number of the virus is reduced to 0.3, there will be a chance to control the epidemic in the next two to three weeks.
Tang Jisheng, vice president of the Hong Kong Medical Council Licensed Doctors Association, believes that the local epidemic is showing signs of relief, but it is difficult to say whether this is a steady downward trend. "The epidemic is still changing, and we should maintain a cautiously optimistic attitude."
A few days ago, the SAR government announced that it would launch free voluntary community testing within two weeks at the earliest. Tang Jisheng mentioned that after the launch of the relevant program, many invisible patients in the community may be screened within a short period of time. Significant increase within a few days. However, he believes that as the epidemic itself tends to ease, further testing for the virus will help control the epidemic.
Tang Jisheng also reminded the public that the awareness of epidemic prevention must not be relaxed due to the slight easing of the epidemic, and any epidemic prevention measures should continue to be tightened and extended. After all, the epidemic may repeat and fluctuate. (Finish)