Explosion in Beirut as a cry for help

Only the lazy did not write about the explosion in Beirut, which inflicted defeat on almost the entire city and turned the port of Beirut (the epicenter of the explosion) into ruins. The death toll - from 150 people and continues to grow, the number of wounded - several thousand. The explosion was so powerful that glass was blown out in the windows of houses several kilometers from the epicenter.

"What happened was similar to the events in Japan, Hiroshima and Nagasaki," said Governor of Beirut, Marwan Abbud (remember this name, we will come back to it). For his face instantly became known all over the planet - an official crying, screaming in grief next to the ruins - this is a powerful picture that was picked up by all the reporters in the world.

The first thoughts were, of course, this: this is another round of war between Israel and Hezbollah. The first news reports about the explosion: in the port, the Israelis could instructively cover the Hezbollah ammunition depot, which seemed to fit in with the latest Israeli attacks on pro-Iranian facilities in Syria, Lebanon and so on. Al Arabiya, the mouthpiece of bin Zayed, pulled from somewhere a video of 2016, where the smiling Nasrallah, the troll of Israel, says that, they say, if a couple of our missiles arrive at the ammonia depots in the Haifa port, a nuclear bomb will not be needed. In general, as always: the parties pointed their fingers at each other, but each of them did not take the blame and disown what happened in the port.

Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan Diab said that an explosion of ammonium nitrate had occurred in the port, which had allegedly been stored there since 2014 (like “the questions are not for me, guys, the predecessor should be responsible for this, who did not clear up his blockages”) and publicly promised, that the perpetrators will pay for what happened.

In general, it seems like an accident, a disaster, almost of a man-made nature. And we'll find the switchman and put him in prison.

Although the author of this column agrees this time with President Trump, who reacted with lightning speed to what happened: “We will be there to help. It looks like a terrible attack. "

The 2,750 tons of ammonium nitrate, a material used to make bombs, doesn't go off every day in ports, you know. By completely destroying the port (in Beirut, its contents could be extremely interesting), the infrastructure of half of the city and hurting 5 thousand residents - injured or homeless. 

Whatever this explosion was - an accident or a deliberate sabotage - the circumstances and the time when it happened deserve unconditional attention.

So we're just analyzing the facts.

In January in Lebanon, after months of anti-corruption protests that paralyzed Beirut, and after the resignation of the previous Prime Minister Hariri and the resulting power vacuum, a new government was formed for new Prime Minister Hassan Diab. Diab is a vivid representative of a new class of technocrats who are not folk heroes and charismatics, but are appointed in order to technically accurately fulfill all the tasks assigned to them. As in Iraq, which has a special status between the United States and Iran, in Lebanon only a “compromise” figure could become prime minister.

In Lebanon, the tangle of contradictions and the number of interested parties is even greater than in Iraq: this is Israel, and Iran, and Hezbollah, the most powerful political and military force in Lebanon, and the French, and the monarchy of the Gulf, and the United States, and the eternal secret interest - Britain ...

Diab seemed to suit everyone. But he took the country to the brink of default. And, accordingly, a couple of weeks later he announced the obvious: the country either pays its debts to creditors, or directs this money to social payments and the provision of basic services to its population.

On February 25, 2020, Hezbollah announced that "Lebanon will not accept the imperialist methods of the IMF in managing the country's economy." (An important point.) On March 9, the Lebanese Ministry of Finance did not pay $ 1.2 billion on Eurobonds, spending money on social needs, thus allowing the first sovereign default in the country's history.

A severe economic and social crisis was rapidly developing in the country. Every third Lebanese is unemployed. Since the beginning of the year, the Lebanese currency has devalued by 85%, imports have fallen by 40%.

IMF Deputy Executive Director Vladislav Rashkovan claims that the country does not even have funds to pay for critical imports, the Lebanese Central Bank does not sell foreign currency even to buy wheat: “Inflation in the country is growing in a spiral: in February it was 11.4, in May it was already 56, 6. The country began to cut off electricity, making no exceptions even for traffic lights. In the first five months of 2020, the number of murders has doubled, by 50% - the number of car thefts. Lebanon's sovereign debts are trading cheaper than at the peak of Argentina's or Ecuador's debt slump. The economic losses this year are estimated at $ 70 billion. The Central Bank is actually bankrupt. "

In general, the cornered Diab (on the one hand - the IMF creditors, on the other - the funny guys from Hezbollah) backed down and held talks with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. On April 30, a program of anti-crisis measures was approved, on the basis of which the IMF was to decide whether to give money to Lebanon or not. Bankers are demanding reforms from Diab that will restore stability and "ensure economic growth."

Diab hoped to receive $ 10-15 billion from the IMF, and now, three months later, an "overseer" came to Beirut from international bankers-financiers to check Lebanon's readiness for a deal and a report on the reform plan.

This role this time was played by the French Foreign Minister, a representative of the old guard, one of the gray cardinals of French politics - 73-year-old Jean-Yves Le Drian. A difficult diplomat: under Hollande he was the Minister of Defense, including overseeing the withdrawal of French troops from Afghanistan and the deployment of French troops in northern Mali. He supported Macron in the elections, thanks to which he, immediately upon election, appointed him the chief intelligence officer, in the sense, the head of the Foreign Ministry. Le Drian is credited with reviving French arms exports since taking office as Secretary of Defense in 2012, billion-dollar contracts including the export of the French Dassault Rafale fighter jet to Egypt, Qatar and India, and a $ 40 billion contract for French submarines for Australia. Also, since taking office as Defense Minister, Le Drian led the French army to the Sahel, CAR, Syria and Iraq. In general, a person came to Lebanon with a theme.

On July 23, 2020, he delivered a historic speech in Beirut, addressed to his colleague, Lebanese Foreign Minister Nassif Hitti and all "Lebanese friends." This speech is so beautiful that I will quote a significant quote from it here: “Dear Nassif, Ladies and Gentlemen ... I am in Lebanon on my second visit as Foreign Minister at the request of President of the French Republic Emmanuel Macron ... to confirm that France stands and will always stand with Lebanon and the Lebanese people with whom, as you know, we have a unique relationship. We have a common history, and this year we will celebrate the centenary of the proclamation of the state of Greater Lebanon. But ladies and gentlemen, here is the message of truth that I want to convey to you today: the situation is critical. The financial and economic crisis is raging. At the Economic Conference for Development through Private Sector Reform (CEDRE), we proposed a Trust Deed to fund projects in exchange for structural reforms. The aspirations of the Lebanese people were expressed in a popular protest movement that began in October 2019. They took to the streets to demonstrate a desire for change, a desire for transparency and the fight against corruption. Unfortunately, this call was never heeded ... I especially mean the resumption of negotiations with the IMF through the effective audit of the Central Bank of Lebanon. And we must not deceive ourselves: there is no alternative to the IMF program if Lebanon wants to get out of the crisis. I'm also talking about the reform of the electricity sector, this is a very symbolic project ... Ladies and gentlemen, perhaps you know the French expression "God helps those who help themselves." Today I want to say to the leaders of Lebanon: "France and its partners will help those who help themselves."

He said - and flew to Paris.

The layout is as follows: the IMF and influential European bankers have set a condition: we will give more money in debt, but in exchange you must let us go to the Central Bank of Lebanon ("for an effective audit") and give us the country's electricity (Lebanese RAO UES), otherwise people will the streets will arrange for you something that Hezbollah will not save, they themselves have little money, they are under sanctions.

In short, the fox in the hen house lectures the chickens on morality while other foxes slaughter their chickens in the backyard.

Think about it: the Hariri clan, which built modern Beirut, nevertheless enmeshed Lebanon with European bank loans so that today Lebanon's national debt has reached $ 90 billion. And in return for the $ 10-15 billion thrown over from above, you need to give the Central Bank and the country's electricity industry, that is, lose the last 10% sovereignty.

It is clear that Hezbollah and those behind it have waved their big flag at the French. They did not give money. And Diab is he a technocrat, not a suicide bomber. By the way, the explosion on the embankment, when Rafik Hariri was blown up in his car, had about the same force as in the port of Beirut, according to eyewitnesses.

Well, here you are - what would you do in such a completely hopeless scenario in the place of the Lebanese authorities, which are trying to keep the last thing that keeps the country from the status of a failed state?

One of my favorite films, It's a wonderful life by Frank Capra, provides a clue. The plot is as follows: the main character finds himself in difficult life circumstances and, making a choice between going to jail or committing suicide, chooses the second (and proceeds to the intended one), but the Lord above knows him as a cool guy, in general, and to save him sends a good-natured angel with lightning speed. Although the angel is lame, he knows the deal, and - by a miracle! - when the bailiffs come to arrest the hero for a huge debt (which arose thanks to the vile banker), all the inhabitants of the town come to his aid, right home, and throw off money - some for several dollars, some for several hundred. And as a result, a huge amount is collected almost instantly!

The list of heads of state of the world who promptly responded to the misfortune of Lebanon and offered their help prompted me to think about this film. Some of them speak Kurkul (medicines and doctors), and some offered financial assistance - Russia, France, Germany, Great Britain, Turkey, Iran, Israel, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and many others.

The most interesting thing that I saw was a flash mob that Malaysia launched on its social networks - #PrayForLebanon. Its meaning is that we are sitting at home, we cannot come, but we are ready to help from here everything we can.

The same Governor of Beirut, Marwan Abbud, who became world famous in a second, naturally sobbing over the ruins and sprinkling ashes on his head, interrupting the cry, said: the estimated damage from the explosion in Beirut is "from $ 3 billion to $ 5 billion and even more." 

There will probably be more. You need at least ten.

I have been looking for a biography of the Beirut governor for a long time - even the English-language media know practically nothing about him. He became governor in June 2020, "on the eve of a great nix." And before that he was a judge. There is little mention of him, except that the Chinese Xinhua writes about Abbud in 2018 as a great fighter against corruption. Well, now it is clear whom he recalled: the head of the Iranian judiciary, who has also been fighting corruption for many years and is just as exalted, emotionally reacting to public grief.

As one clever Frenchman said above, God only helps those who help themselves. Prayer prayer, but better send a dollar.

Therefore, if Lebanon's friends really launch a flash mob asking for financial assistance to the victims, Lebanon may well survive without an IMF loan. With the existence of social networks and the Internet, such global tasks are only a matter of at least some mind.

When Notre Dame burned down, € 1 billion was collected in two days - immediately, instantly. Big business, public funds, even regions of France made their donations (Ile-de-France - € 10 million, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes - € 2 million, for example, and so on).

The French were able to unite for the sake of restoring the cultural monument: clearly, quickly, beautifully. This is the strength and greatness of European civilization. But can Muslims of the world unite in the same way - and not around the “enemy”, as usual, but to help, for example, a city - one of the most beautiful in the Middle East?

The Beirut case will show it.

The author's point of view may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.