Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, August 5 (Dong Xiangyi) The "July 2020 National 40 Cities New Commercial Housing Transaction Report" released by the Yiju Real Estate Research Institute on the 4th shows that the transaction volume in the 40 cities in July increased month-on-month. , A positive year-on-year growth for three consecutive months. From January to July, the transaction volume in 12 cities including Shaoguan, Lanzhou and Xiamen increased year-on-year, with Zhuhai, Xi'an, and Changsha experiencing the largest year-on-year decline.
It is understood that the 40 typical cities reported in the above report include 4 first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen; 18 second-tier cities including Suzhou, Fuzhou, Nanjing, Qingdao, and Hangzhou; and Yangzhou, Dongguan, Wenzhou, Yueyang, and Wuxi. Waiting for 18 third- and fourth-tier cities.
New latitude and longitude in the data map
July 40 new homes sold hot
The report pointed out that the transaction area of newly built commercial residential buildings in 40 cities increased by 5% month-on-month and 18% year-on-year. Since the first year-on-year increase in transaction volume in May, the year-on-year positive growth has been for three consecutive months, indicating that the real estate market has gotten rid of the impact of the epidemic and is on the right track.
From January to July, the transaction area in 40 cities fell by 12% year-on-year, and the decline continued to narrow. Specifically, due to the impact of the epidemic, commercial housing sales basically stagnated in February, and have gradually recovered since March. The year-on-year decline in cumulative transaction area at the beginning of the 40 cities has narrowed for five consecutive months.
In terms of regions, in the first 7 months of this year, the first-tier cities fell 16% year-on-year and the second-tier cities fell 15% year-on-year; the third- and fourth-tier cities fell 6% year-on-year, the smallest drop among the third-tier cities. As a result, the report’s selected third- and fourth-tier cities are located in the Yangtze River Delta and the Greater Bay Area. The property market in some cities in these two regions has been relatively hot this year.
Transaction volume in 12 cities increased year-on-year, while Zhuhai fell by 40%
The report shows that in the first 7 months of this year, the transaction volume of newly built commercial residential buildings in 12 cities including Shaoguan, Lanzhou, Xiamen, Wenzhou, Jinhua, Hangzhou, Dongguan, Yueyang, Chengdu, Xuzhou, Ningbo, and Qingdao increased year-on-year, while the rest fell year-on-year.
Source: "July 2020 National New Commercial Housing Transaction Report in 40 Cities"
According to the analysis of the report, Shaoguan’s highest growth rate may be due to the relatively sluggish property market and low transaction base in the same period last year. After the epidemic this year, the large supply volume has resulted in a higher transaction volume growth rate; Lanzhou is the western capital city of which the current round of market launch was relatively late , Is currently at the end of the boom in the property market; Xiamen's property market was very sluggish from 2017 to 2018. Last year, the transaction volume rebounded. Since the beginning of this year, the market has continued to pick up, and the transaction has shown a steady growth trend.
It is worth noting that the top five cities with the highest year-on-year decline in new home transaction volume in the first July of this year are Zhuhai, Xi'an, Changsha, Wuhan and Yantai.
Why did Zhuhai's trading volume drop by 40%? According to the analysis of the report, Zhuhai eased purchase restrictions in certain regions at the end of 2018 and the first half of 2019. In the first half of 2019, the transaction volume of new houses more than doubled from the same period last year.
In addition, in the past two years, Xi'an has been among the top in the country in terms of net population inflows under the stimulation of the New Talent Policy. The property market is hot. In June 2019, the most stringent purchase restriction policy in second-tier cities was introduced. Since then, the property market has begun to cool down. The transaction volume from January to July this year The decline is second only to Zhuhai. The purchase restriction policy in Changsha is relatively strict among the second-tier cities, and the government has very strict control over housing prices, and the crackdown on real estate speculation is also very strong. The property market has always been relatively stable.
From the perspective of the new house transaction volume in other major cities in the first July, Shanghai among the first-tier cities was flat compared with the same period last year, Shenzhen declined slightly year-on-year, and Beijing and Guangzhou dropped more significantly. Among the major second-tier cities, Nanjing and Hefei saw smaller year-on-year declines, while Chongqing, Suzhou and Zhengzhou saw larger year-on-year declines.
The property market in some hot cities is expected to cool in the third quarter
"Since May, transactions in 40 cities have been increasing year-on-year for three consecutive months, and the property market in some cities is booming." Shen Xin, a researcher at E-House Research Institute, believes, "After the outbreak, some cities have reduced pre-sale conditions and accelerated pre-sale permits. Approval, the property market supply is expected to increase in the third quarter."
The report pointed out that since March, sales activities across the country have gradually returned to normal. Chengdu and Hangzhou have repeatedly seen “ten thousand people waking numbers” for new houses. Sales of some luxury housing projects in Shenzhen and Shanghai are booming, but this is only a partial phenomenon. The property market in most cities The transaction gradually returned to normal, and the nationwide property market showed no signs of large-scale rise or overheating.
How to set the real estate policy in the second half of the year? The Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee held on July 30 made it clear: "We must adhere to the positioning of houses for living, not for speculation, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market."
New latitude and longitude in the data map
At the same time, since July, cities with hot real estate market performance in the first half of the year, such as Dongguan, Ningbo, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, and Nanjing, have further tightened their real estate control policies, and policies have continued to maintain consistency. On July 24, the State Council held a real estate symposium to deploy key real estate tasks in the next stage. Representatives from 10 cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Shenyang, Chengdu, Ningbo, and Changsha participated in the "Live without speculation", "stabilize land prices, stabilize housing prices, stabilize expectations" and so on.
According to Shen Xin, the policies in the second half of the year are not optimistic. Hot cities such as Shenzhen, Dongguan, Hangzhou, Ningbo, and Nanjing have tightened their control policies, and from the current control tone, the follow-up does not rule out that there will be some early-stage property market performances. Cities have introduced tightening policies. After the regulatory upgrade, the second-hand housing market in Shenzhen and Dongguan has taken the lead in cooling down. It is expected that the new housing market in these cities will also cool down in the third quarter. At the same time, from the perspective of house purchase demand, due to the impact of the epidemic, the income of residents in related industries such as foreign trade, tourism, catering, and services has declined, which will curb the demand for house purchase to a certain extent. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
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