Chinanews client, Beijing, August 1 (Peng Jingru) In recent months, the property market has continued to pick up. In June, the price of new homes in 70 cities rose and the number of cities hit a new high since July 2019. Will the property market control direction in the second half of the year be Change?

  The Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee held on July 30th gave the latest tone in 31 words: "We must adhere to the positioning of houses for living, not for speculation, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market."

Data map: real estate. Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Bin

Why continue to insist on "housing and not speculating"?

  The Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2016 put forward for the first time, "Houses are for living, not for speculation." Since then, "housing to live without speculation" has become a frequent word in the property market regulation policy.

  Affected by factors such as the impact of the epidemic, the Chinese economy (GDP) fell by 6.8% year-on-year in the first quarter and increased by 3.2% in the second quarter. Although economic growth has achieved a "V"-shaped rebound, the current economic situation is still complex and severe, with greater instability and uncertainty. Why can't real estate regulation be relaxed?

  Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Economic Policy Committee of the Chinese Academy of Policy Research, told Chinanews that the Politburo meeting once again emphasized the practical significance of "housing and housing not speculating" and warned against rushing into it. The recent rebound in housing prices in individual cities, and the sharp rise in housing prices, is not conducive to the development of the real economy, and will also affect the consumption capacity of residents. Therefore, we must persist in not using real estate as a short-term economic stimulus method to stabilize the property market and prevent major fluctuations.

  "In the first half of the year, a dozen cities across the country loosened the policy of'one-day trip', behind it was the impulse to loosen the regulation and stimulate the real estate market." Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Property, said to Chinanews.com that the effect behind it is obvious. , Superimposing the talent policies of more than 100 cities with various strengths, the real estate market has indeed stabilized rapidly, and even some cities have begun to become hot.

  "The positioning of'housing, staying, not speculating' remains unchanged, and it sends a clear signal-there should be no fluke psychology of loosening regulatory policies in various places." Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, said to Chinanews.com that land prices and housing prices will rise in the future We will continue to actively control the situation when we wait for new situations.

  "With the setting of the policy, many cities have begun to tighten the regulation of the property market. On the whole, the real estate market policy will continue to be stable in the second half of the year." Zhang Dawei said.

Data map: A real estate agency store in Beijing. Photo by Peng Jingru

How to ensure the stable development of the property market?

  The real estate work symposium held on July 24 proposed to implement a good real estate financial prudential management system, stabilize the stock, strictly control the increase, and prevent the illegal flow of funds into the real estate market; it is necessary to promptly establish a residential land market monitoring indicator system and regularly disclose it to various places The progress of land reserves and the construction of land that has been sold shall be subject to social supervision; the role of fiscal and taxation policies must be brought into play to effectively regulate housing demand, and so on.

  Finance, land, fiscal and taxation, these three categories are not traditional "limit prefix" administrative control measures.

  In Yan Yuejin's view, from the perspective of the several regulatory tools identified at the meeting, the focus of the symposium is to adhere to the problem orientation, attach great importance to the new conditions and problems in the current real estate market, and always tighten the string of real estate regulation and unswervingly advance. Implement a long-term mechanism.

  How to quickly discover new situations and problems, the forum proposed that the main responsibility of the city government should be fully implemented, the problems should be quickly responded and dealt with, and targeted policy measures should be adopted in a timely manner. It is necessary to strengthen market monitoring, prompt, guide and early warning of market changes, and accurately analyze the market situation.

  It is worth noting that government officials from 10 cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Shenyang, Chengdu, Ningbo, and Changsha participated in the forum. Yan Yuejin said that most of these 10 cities belonged to the cities where housing prices rose rapidly in the first half of this year, and their participation in the conference itself was a signal.

  Since July, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Dongguan and other hot cities have successively introduced policies to tighten real estate regulation. An executive meeting of the Shanghai Municipal Government held on July 30 pointed out that it is necessary to firmly adhere to the positioning of "housing to live without speculation", resolutely implement the "one city, one policy" normal long-term mechanism, stabilize land prices, stabilize housing prices, stabilize expectations, and ensure the market Stable and healthy development.

  Zhang Bo, Dean of 58 Anju Guest House Property Research Institute, predicts that in the second half of the year, real estate regulation will be tighter and more timely in stabilizing land prices, housing prices, and stabilizing expectations. The property market may cool down in the third quarter.

Data map: A certain real estate project attracts many buyers to come to "buy houses". Photo by Tang Yanjun issued by China News Agency

Not to suppress real estate, but to timely, scientifically and accurately control

  According to a report released by 58.com and Anjuke, the month-on-month prices of new and second-hand houses in 67 cities under the national key monitoring program increased. Among them, the average online price of new homes increased by 0.04% month-on-month; the average price of second-hand housing listings rose 0.54% from the previous month, and the average price of second-hand housing listings in 50 cities rose month-on-month.

  Yan Yuejin pointed out that the following policies are expected to be tightened in cities with overheated property markets, especially where there are no recent regulatory policies. Other cities will be more cautious about policy relaxation and will not easily relax.

  However, policy tightening does not blindly suppress real estate. Adhering to the positioning of "housing and not speculating", the purpose is to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. The symposium requested that, proceeding from the actual conditions of various regions, adopt differentiated control measures and timely scientific and precise control.

  On July 29, Shenzhen “patched” the new property market policy announced on July 15, applying the policy on in-transit real estate transactions, the determination of settlement time, the purchase restriction policy of commercial housing, the purchase of houses by divorced persons, the adjustment of ordinary housing standards, and the implementation of A detailed explanation was given on the online signing of the housing mortgage contract.

  "Cities where the property market is relatively stable and there are no major fluctuations in policy fluctuations are unlikely. Market participants need not worry too much about policy tightening and other content. They must understand the strength of each city's policy and the driving force for further market stability." Yan Yuejin said. Regulation is to block real estate speculation and meet reasonable housing needs.

  On July 20, the State Council issued a document to comprehensively promote the transformation of old communities in cities and towns. By the end of 2025, we will strive to basically complete the transformation of old communities in cities and towns that need to be renovated before the end of 2000. There are nearly 39 million households involved, and 220,000 old urban communities. The real estate work symposium also requested that housing security should be done well, and the transformation of old urban communities and shanty towns should be promoted in accordance with local conditions, and efforts should be made to solve the housing problems of new urban residents and young people.

  Zhang Dawei said that the transformation of old communities is a win-win project that can not only protect people's livelihood, but also stabilize investment and employment, and stimulate consumption. Another expert pointed out that the renovation of old communities is not easy to cause speculation. From the perspective of ensuring housing demand, real estate has not been completely suppressed, and this trend of holding and holding pressure will continue in the future. (Finish)