China News Service Client Beijing, July 18th (Peng Jingru) On the 16th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the June 70 city housing prices and the national real estate development investment and sales in the first half of the year. The data revealed what changes in the property market? What did the property market experience in the first half of the year? What is the current price level? Where will the property market go next?
There are not only data that can reflect the property market, but also salary slips from real estate agents.
Real estate agents like to raise performance wages in June
"Rise, rose!" Shenzhen real estate agent Jianbo (pseudonym) is not staring at the stock app, but his own salary. "In June, there were more people showing up, and my closing orders were finally reflected in the performance salary."
Data map: aerial photography Shenzhen. China News Agency reporter Chen Wenshe
In June, the property market in large and medium-sized cities nationwide continued to pick up.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 16th, among 70 large and medium-sized cities, the price of new homes rose in 61 cities, the decrease in 7 cities and the same in 2 cities. The number of cities with new house prices rose to a new high since July 2019.
Second-hand housing prices also showed signs of recovery. The average price increase of second-hand housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities has expanded slightly. Among the 70 large and medium-sized cities in the month, the prices of second-hand houses in 50 cities rose month-on-month, setting a new high in nearly 13 months.
Housing prices have increased in cities, and housing prices have also increased.
According to Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, in June, the average price of newly built commercial housing in 70 cities rose by 0.6% month-on-month, and the average month-on-month increase has expanded for four consecutive months. "The market has continued to pick up signs." .
It is worth noting that in June 70 city housing prices, the price of second-hand housing in Shenzhen and the price of new houses in Yinchuan won the second quarter. Previously, in May, the price of new houses in Yinchuan rose the first month on a month-on-month basis; in March, second-hand houses in Shenzhen rose the first-on-quarter. In addition, the price of new houses in Tangshan rose by 1.5% month-on-month, and the price increase was at the forefront of 70 cities for four consecutive months.
"Performance is zero in February, you can only get the final salary"
Many people are not surprised by the June real estate data. In mid-June, Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, said in the May 70 city house price release that the nationwide property market continued to recover in May and has basically returned to the level before the 2019 epidemic. The overall market is basically out of a downturn. "In the first two weeks that have passed in June, data for most cities in the country continue to operate at a high level."
At that time, more people were concerned about "To what extent did the property market recover?" "If we do not recover, it is not a question of'live', but a question of'live or not'," said real estate practitioner Ms. Ding.
The popularity of the two first-tier cities in Beijing and Shenzhen at that time was even more striking. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in May, second-tier housing prices rose more than 1% in first-tier cities, and Beijing led the country.
Data Map: Citizens pass through a sales center on Fanyang Road, Fengtai District, Beijing. China News Service reporter Zhang Yushe
Regarding the figure of "1%", Yan Yuejin specifically explained, "This is the first time that the price of second-hand housing in first-tier cities has increased by more than 1% since April 2017. Generally speaking, we will regard the level of more than 1% as overheated housing prices. ."
"The two months have indeed improved a lot, but I still can't forget the suffering in February, when I only had a poor basic salary." Jian Bo recalled.
Affected by the epidemic, the property market once reached "freezing point" in February. In the same month, there were zero transactions of new houses in 19 cities across the country. Whether it is residential sales area, office building sales area or commercial business building sales area, the country has fallen sharply.
"In the first half of the year, revenue was discounted, and the market improved, but it was not profitable."
Although the property market transactions have basically returned to pre-epidemic levels in May, the property market sales in the first half of the year were still affected.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of the year, the area of commercial housing sold was 694.04 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.4%. Among them, the area of residential sales fell by 7.6%. The sales of commercial housing nationwide were 669.5895 billion yuan, down 5.4%. Among them, residential sales fell by 2.8%.
"The income in the first half of this year must have been greatly discounted. Now that the market improves, it may not necessarily make money back," Jianbo said.
However, for the data of "commercial housing sales area decreased by 8.4% year-on-year", Yan Yuejin believes that the data narrowed by 3.9 percentage points from January to May, indicating that the property market has performed very well.
Data map: Property consultants recommend commercial housing units for the public. China News Agency reporter Wei Liangshe
"This also shows that the current housing transactions are still relatively hot, at least much better than expected. In the second half of the year, it is expected that the supply rhythm of various regions will continue to accelerate, including increased support for credit policies, which will help to boost sales data. "Yan Yuejin said.
Wang Xiaoqian, a senior analyst at Zhuge Property Search Data Research Center, also believes that although the Beijing epidemic rebounded in June, the epidemic has not spread because of good prevention and control measures. The impact on the national property market is not large, and the decline in property market sales will continue to narrow.
The property market receives "fever stickers", and future income is hard to say
The property market sales recovered quickly, and the recovery of real estate development investment was not inferior. From January to June, the national real estate development investment increased at a rate of 1.9% year-on-year, which turned positive for the first time in the first five months when it continued to be negative.
Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of New Era Securities, told Chinanews.com that the growth in real estate investment is partly because the domestic epidemic has improved and demand for work has rebounded. On the other hand, monetary easing has also accelerated the recovery of real estate demand.
"The trend of real estate in the future remains to be seen." Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, said that in the next stage, credit and social financing will still be mainly structured easing, focusing on supporting manufacturing, small and medium-sized enterprises and other fields, and arbitrage for idle funds. Such violations into the real estate market will increase the crackdown. Some cities with a hot property market will successively introduce control measures.
Data Map: A residential building in Hangzhou. Photo by Guo Qiyu
Since July, four cities in Hangzhou, Dongguan, Ningbo, and Shenzhen have issued tightening policies for property market regulation. Shenzhen has introduced the most stringent policy in history: settled in Shenzhen and can only buy a house after 3 years of social security, buy a second suite in Shenzhen for more than 70% down payment, buy a house within 3 years of divorce count as a second suite.
"This month's income is indeed gratifying, but Shenzhen's policy is too strong this time, and I don't know how next month." Jian Bo was mixed with his wages.
"There is not much room for absolute decline in house prices, but it is also necessary to prevent overheating in some cities. If house prices are unstable, various control policies will still be introduced." Yan Yuejin said. (Finish)