- Thursday, Olivier Véran indicated on France Inter that "weak signals of resumption" of the epidemic of the coronavirus had been noted in Parisian hospitals.
- The incidence has been increasing since the beginning of July and the virus's reproduction rate has just crossed the strategic threshold of 1.
- Parisian and Ile-de-France hospitals paradoxically continue to empty.
In recent days, alerts have multiplied. Traces of Covid-19 have been isolated from wastewater in the Paris region, a gradual increase in calls to SOS Doctors has been noted, new clusters isolated… "Weak signals of recovery" from the coronavirus epidemic have been observed in Paris hospitals, recognized, Thursday, the Minister of Health, Olivier Véran, at the microphone of France Inter. "The health indicators in Ile-de-France show concordantly weak signals in favor of a moderate epidemic recovery", confirms to 20 Minutes the regional health agency (ARS).
Between the end of June and the beginning of July, calls to Samu for suspected Covid-19 in the region almost doubled. Same observation for the SOS Doctors consultations. Almost every week new clusters are identified: if they illustrate the effectiveness of health monitoring, they are also a sign of the circulation of the virus. To date, there are 31 active in the region, a third of which are in Paris. Half are in health or medico-social establishments, the other half in collective accommodation structures, schools or businesses. "None is considered critical", that is to say out of control, specifies however the health authority.
Another worrying sign, and not the least: the rate of reproduction of the virus passed, this week, above the strategic threshold of "1" in Ile-de-France. Clearly: the epidemic is progressing. Whereas until now, an infected person transmitted the disease to less than one person, it now infects 1.15. Before confinement, this rate was estimated at more than 3.
The incidence starts to rise again
The first tremors were noted at the end of June. While the incidence of the epidemic, that is to say the number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants, has been relatively stable for the past month and has hovered around 6 in Ile-de-France, this strategic indicator has gradually increased to Thursday, 7.7. We are certainly far from the alert threshold established at 50 - to date, only Mayenne has reached it in mainland France - but in certain departments, the vigilance threshold (established at 10 cases) has been reached or is in progress. happening to be: in Seine-Saint-Denis, there are now 10.1 inhabitants affected by the coronavirus per 100,000, in Paris, this rate is 9.9. Particular attention is also paid to Val-de-Marne, where in 24 hours, the incidence rate fell from 7.4 to 8.4.
According to the ARS, this increase can be explained in particular by the increase in the number of tests carried out since the health insurance sent coupons to almost 10% of Ile-de-France residents. "We passed between mid-June and mid-July from 45,000 to more than 75,000 PCR tests carried out per week in the region," says the health organization. If the positivity rate remains relatively low - 1.2% at the regional level but it reaches 2.1% in Paris - and stable, the number of people declared positive increases mechanically. Nevertheless, the least respect for barrier gestures as well as the resumption of school or extracurricular activities, the increase in the use of transport, the reopening of restaurants or cafes promote the circulation of the virus. "We are seeing a stronger viral activity of the virus because there are more contact cases," specifies the ARS. This makes investigative investigations heavier. We will strengthen our tracing teams during the summer. "
Hospitals empty, fear of second wave remains
If the circulation of the virus is certainly more active than in June, the situation of Ile-de-France hospitals continues, paradoxically, to improve. As of Thursday, 3,390 patients were hospitalized in the region due to the coronavirus, which is 50 months earlier than the day before. In mid-April, there were more than 13,200. Since July 10, the number of people in intensive care has stabilized around 240, against nearly 3,000 during the peak in late March. "For the moment, in intensive care, there is no increase in the number of patients, there has always been and we have been receiving pearls since the start of deconfinement but if the signals are confirmed, we risk to attend, in two or three weeks, to a massive influx of patients, "worries nevertheless Professor Djillali Annane, head of the resuscitation department of the Raymond-Poincarré hospital in Garches in the Hauts-de-Seine.
Currently, three Covid 19 positive patients are hospitalized in his department. At the height of the crisis, there were more than thirty. Professor Djillali Annane sees in this period many similarities with the situation last February when the virus was circulating without the hospital services being overwhelmed. "It is estimated that between 7 and 15% of Covid patients will develop a serious form, so mathematically the more cases there are, the more there will be hospitalized patients," he insists. At the height of the crisis, the number of intensive care beds in the region was more than doubled, from 1,200 to 3,000. If since then, the hospitals have gradually returned to their initial capacities, "each Ile-de-France establishment has a capacity for resuscitation beds that can be quickly mobilized as well as the personnel necessary to rearm them," specifies the ARS. Hoping however not to have to arrive there.
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